Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation

Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure, risk measure forecasts are compared to the realized financial losses over a period of time and a statistical test of correctness of the procedure is conducted. This process is known as backtesting. Such traditional backtests are concerned with assessing some optimality property of a set of risk measure estimates. However, they are not suited to compare different risk estimation procedures. We investigate the proposal of comparative backtests, which are better suited for method comparisons on the basis of forecasting accuracy, but necessitate an elicitable risk measure. We argue that supplementing traditional backtests with comparative backtests will enhance the existing trading book regulatory framework for banks by providing the correct incentive for accuracy of risk measure forecasts. In addition, the comparative backtesting framework could be used by banks internally as well as by researchers to guide selection of forecasting methods. The discussion focuses on three risk measures, Value-at-Risk, expected shortfall and expectiles, and is supported by a simulation study and data analysis

Vastasyntyneen ja imeväisikäisen vauvan unenaikaisen hengitys- ja syketaajuuden tarkkailu puettavalla liikeanturilla

Vastasyntyneelle ja imeväisikäiselle nukkuminen on elintärkeä toiminto, ja se on välttämätöntä aivoverkkojen kehitykselle. Tiedetään, että huono unenlaatu aiheuttaa pitkällä tähtäimellä muun muassa kasvun hidastumista ja käyttäytymisongelmia. Imeväisikäisillä melko yleisesti esiintyvät unihäiriöt, kuten yöheräily ja nukahtamisvaikeudet aiheuttavat merkittävää rasitusta ja huolta vanhemmille. Objektiivisen mittausmenetelmän puutteen vuoksi ei ole kuitenkaan voitu selvittää imeväisikäisen unen kehittymistä kotiolosuhteissa. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin puettaviin pöksyihin kiinnitetyn liikeanturin ja EKG-kangaselektrodien soveltuvuutta vastasyntyneiden ja imeväisikäisten vauvojen unenaikaisen hengityksen ja sykkeen tarkkailuun. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa päiväaikaisten uni-EEG-tutkimuksien yhteydessä verrattiin liikeanturin mittauskanavien rekisteröimiä mittauskäyriä pietsoanturilla varustettuun hengitysvyöhön. Saatujen tutkimustuloksien perusteella liikeanturin gyroskooppi osoittautui tarkimmaksi hengitystaajuutta mittaavaksi parametriksi, kun taas anturin välittämä EKG-signaali oli tulkintakelpoisin osin luotettavaa. Tutkimuksen toisessa vaiheessa vauvaperheille annettiin unipöksyt ja älypuhelimet kotiin arvioidaksemme yön yli kestävää kotikäyttöä. Tutkimustulokset viittaavat siihen, että eri unitilojen tunnistaminen hengityksen vaihtelusta olisi todennäköisesti mahdollista gyroskooppisignaalista. Vanhemmilta saadun palautteen perusteella unipöksyjä pidettiin käytännöllisinä ja helppokäyttöisinä. Tulevissa tutkimuksissa tulisi keskittyä liikeanturin validointiin kliinisesti hyväksyttyjen mittausparametrien avulla, jotta algoritmeja voisi opettaa tunnistamaan eri uni-valve rytmejä automaattisesti. Näin puettava liikeanturi voisi tarjota tietoa vauvan luonnollisen unirakenteen kehittymisestä pitkällä aikavälillä. Lisäksi anturin kliininen validointi voisi mahdollistaa imeväisikäisten kardiorespiratoristen ongelmien ja liikehäiriöiden diagnostisen lisätyökalun kehittämisen.Sleep is one of the most vital functions of newborns and infants, and it is essential for neuronal network development. Therefore, long-term sleep disturbances have been associated with growth delays and behavioral disorders. Commonly reported infant sleep disturbances, such as night awakenings and difficulties falling asleep, cause distress to parents. Yet, the development of infant sleep in the home environment has not been fully elucidated due to lack of objective measurement parameters. In the current study, we assessed the feasibility of a motion sensor, attached to wearable pants, and ECG textile electrodes to monitor sleep-related respiration and heart rate of newborns and infants. First, we compared signals recorded by the motion sensor’s measurement channels to the standard respiratory piezo effort belt’s signal during daytime EEG recordings. According to our results, the motion sensor’s gyroscope proved to measure respiratory rate most accurately, while the ECG signal transmitted by the sensor was reliable in interpretable sections. We then provided wearable garments and smartphones to families with infants to assess overnight home-use. Our results indicate that different sleep states could likely be identified based on respiration fluctuation visible in the gyroscope’s signals. Moreover, the wearable system was considered practical and easy to use by the parents. Future studies should focus on validating the sensor with clinically approved measures, in order to train the algorithms to automatically identify different sleep-wake states. By doing so, the wearable sensor could provide information on natural infant sleep structure development over long time periods. Additionally, clinical validation of the sensor may result in the development of a companion diagnostic tool for infant cardiorespiratory and movement disorders

Modelos estudiantiles acerca de la estructura de la célula. Un análisis desde la historia de la Biología

El objetivo fue analizar los modelos explicativos del estudiantado de 8vo básico, acerca de la estructura de la célula eucarionte animal, antes y después de una intervención didáctica, fundamentada desde el Modelo Cognitivo de Ciencia y estructurada según el Ciclo Constructivista de Aprendizaje. Se identificaron 18 familias de modelos y además, se evidencio que existían diferencias significativas entre los modelos antes y después de la intervención. Los principales hallazgos permitieron concluir que es posible favorecer la construcción de modelos explicativos dinámicos y flexibles, que se caracterizan por poseer un lenguaje más especializado, establecer nuevas relaciones entre las organelas y funciones celulares, demostrando así que los modelos del estudiantado se transforman progresivamente

The Dynamics Of Aging Process Adaptation From the Late Adulthood To the Elderly in Panti Werdha X

Elderly refers to individuals aged 60 years and over. The aging process in the elderly occurs with a gradual decline in the ability and function of organs. This study aims to determine the dynamics of adaptation to the aging process from late adulthood to old age in the elderly at the Panti Werdha X nursing home. This study only used one participant with purposive sampling method criteria. This research is a case study that is assessed using the methods of observation, interviews, and psychological tests. The results showed that there was a decrease in cognitive function and stress that caused the delay in the aging adaptation process from late adulthood to the elderly. Suggestions are given to improve the welfare of the elderly in terms of physical and psychological. So that it can help the elderly reduce the stress experienced in the elderly phase because they do not have activities or busyness and can achieve happiness in the elderly. In addition, it can help the elderly reduce the stress experienced in the elderly phase because they do not have activities or busyness and can achieve happiness in the elderly. Lansia mengacu pada individu berusia 60 tahun ke atas. Proses penuaan pada orang tua terjadi dengan penurunan bertahap dalam kemampuan dan fungsi organ. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dinamika adaptasi terhadap proses penuaan dari akhir masa dewasa hingga usia tua pada lansia di panti werdha X panti jompo. Penelitian ini hanya menggunakan satu peserta dengan kriteria metode purposive sampling. Penelitian ini merupakan studi kasus yang dinilai dengan menggunakan metode observasi, wawancara, dan tes psikologi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terjadi penurunan fungsi kognitif dan stres yang menyebabkan keterlambatan proses adaptasi penuaan dari akhir masa dewasa hingga lansia. Saran diberikan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan lansia dalam hal fisik dan psikologis. Sehingga dapat membantu lansia mengurangi stres yang dialami pada fase lansia karena tidak memiliki aktivitas atau kesibukan serta dapat mencapai kebahagiaan pada lansia. Selain itu, dapat membantu lansia mengurangi stres yang dialami pada fase lansia karena tidak memiliki aktivitas atau kesibukan serta dapat mencapai kebahagiaan pada lansia

Lineamientos proyectuales para la gestión ambiental del corredor Rur-Urbano Otún-Consotá de Pereira

Desde el inicio de las ciudades y la demanda de recursos para dar sustento a la población se han generado diferentes dinámicas dentro el territorio que traen consigo un desarrollo acelerado, en cuanto al crecimiento cada vez más rápido de la población, la sobre explotación de los recursos y la poca planificación del territorio como consecuencia de la falta de conciencia ambiental; en muchos casos y tratando de dar respuesta a los problemas asociados a la planificación se han desarrollado grandes esfuerzos para generar proyectos en caminados hacia un desarrollo del territorio amigable con el ambiente, pero que no han tenido el resultado esperado por la falta de articulación de los proyectos con la sociedad beneficiada o afectada por las decisiones que se tomen. Es por lo anterior se desarrollaron lineamientos proyectuales para la gestión ambiental en el corredor rur-urbano Otún-Consotá de Pereira, generando una estructura de gestión ambiental la cual surge por la necesidad de generar nuevos mecanismos de participación de la comunidad y para tratar de dar solución a problemas ambientales, la cual se realiza por medio de la interpretación del papel que juegan las instituciones y la comunidad dentro del territorio. Los lineamientos fueron desarrollados a partir de una evaluación sobre los efectos ambientales positivos y negativos relacionados con la expansión de la comuna Universidad que se encuentra alrededor del Área de Manejo Especial Canceles -AMEC, el Jardín Botánico de la Universidad Tecnológica -JBUTP- y el Salado de Consotá en la ciudad de Pereira, además de involucrar la cuenca media del río Otún y sus alrededores como zona de interés ecológico y turístico dentro del corredor. La cual al pasar de los años se ha realizado sin un adecuado conocimiento de los factores que de manera directa lo afectan, además de generar una presión a los recursos afecta a la población circundante en su forma de adaptación al territorio, esta también es una herramienta para mostrar los efectos de una planificación inadecuada alcanzando así un entendimiento común sobre la necesidades de la población, realizado por medio del análisis de interfases ambientales y las relaciones que esta permite y de esta manera determinar los conflictos y potencialidades para así obtener los lineamientos que ayuden a solucionar los problemas ambientales del lugar

The Influence of Soft Music on Newborns in Indonesia

The effects of soft music on the emotional responses of newborns are examined. Sixty newborns were divided into experimental and control groups. The experimental group of 30 Ss received soft music for two days continuously. The control group of 30 Ss received no music. Each group was observed for two days. Results revealed that there were no significant differences in heart rate, respiration rate, weight, and sleep pattern between the experimental and control group. However, the mean crying pattern was significantly different between the two groups. The subjective impressions of mothers, nurses, doctors, and the researcher were also taken into account in forming the general conclusion that the emotions of the experimental group appeared to be calmer than the control group

Indonesian Couples’ Perception of Spouse’s Support during Labour and Childbirth

The World Health Organisation (WHO, 2017) stressed the importance of support during labour and childbirth to the women. Indonesia’s Ministry of Health in cooperation with the WHO, Indonesian Obstetrics and Gynaecology Association, and Indonesian Midwives Association recommended a support person (family member) to accompany women during labour and childbirth (Kementrian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia, 2013). However, in most parts of Indonesia, this recommendation has not been applied properly. With support from the management of the maternity centre, this study offered the women to have the husband’s support during labour and childbirth in order to understand the women’s and husband’s perspective of support during labour and childbirth. This study used a qualitative method, which was very rare, particularly in Indonesia. A quantitative method was included to investigate the couples’ perception of support during labour and childbirth. Eighteen couples were interviewed at three different times: before, during, and after childbirth. This study found similar themes between the women and husbands’ perception about support during labour and childbirth except one woman who felt negatively because her husband agreed with the midwife’s recommendation to do caesarean while the woman expected the normal childbirth. In addition, cross tabulation was added to understand the couples’ perception. This study contributed a new perspective of couples’ perception about support during labour and childbirth. Based on the finding, this study recommended maternity centres or local health care centres to provide information about the importance of support during labour and childbirth via posters, pamphlets, and leaflets. In addition, this study recommended to the Indonesian Ministry of Health to use newspapers, television, radio, and social media to inform all Indonesians about the importance of support during labour and childbirth via programs, community service announcements, and advertisements

Sistematización del Proyecto Mediadores de Aula en la Institución Educativa Hugo Angel Jaramillo

Mediadores de aula es un proyecto que en la institución educativa Hugo ángel Jaramillo se ha implementado desde el año 2011. Durante este periodo de tiempo, son muchas las experiencias, los aprendizajes y los resultados que en la institución se han hecho evidentes; Con este proyecto de sistematización, se busca contribuir positivamente a las estrategias pedagógicas llevan a cabo en diferentes instituciones como lo son el Hugo Ángel Jaramillo ubicado en Málaga y el Jaime Salazar Robledo ubicado en Tokio, instituciones que en la ciudad de Pereira promueven una sana convivencia escolar por medio de proyectos como el de mediadores de aula, donde se fomentan el dialogo y la negociación positiva de los conflictos escolares

Прогнозирование и вероятностная оценка долговечности технических объектов

На основе методологии марковского анализа надежности предложен вероятностный подход к прогнозированию и оценке долговечности технических объектов. Разработана математическая модель прогнозирования долговечности с использованием статистических данных, характеризующих начальное и конечное распределение продолжительности срока службы технических объектов.На основі методології марківського аналізу надійності запропоновано ймовірнісний підхід до прогнозування та оцінки довговічності технічних об’єктів. Розроблено математичну модель прогнозування довговічності з використанням статистичних даних, що характеризують початковий та кінцевий розподіл тривалості терміну служби технічних об’єктів.Based on the methodology of the Markov analysis, a probabilistic approach to forecast and estimation of the longevity of technical objects is offered. A mathematical model of the longevity forecast is developed with the use of statistical data characterizing the initial and final distribution of the service term of technical objects

Novel periodic alternating tangential filtration harvest approach provides incresed volumetric productivity

Perfusion cell culture processes provide opportunities to increase product yield through improved cell growth, increased productivity and extended process duration. Most commonly, perfusion cell culture also leads to a continuous harvest operation and collection of harvested cell culture fluid to be processed downstream. As an alternative to continuous harvest, we evaluated instead a periodic harvest approach applied to a non-steady state perfusion cell culture process using alternative tangential flow (ATF). In this ATF perfusion process, product is first accumulated in the bioreactor using ultrafiltration for 15 days with the product then being harvested by microfiltration at end of the process. To further extend the culture time beyond 15 days and maximize productivity, we investigated a sequence of five periodic harvests from a single upstream bioreactor run. The periodic harvests were achieved using an ATF configuration in which ultrafiltration and microfiltration hollow fiber filters were stacked in series (Figure 1). The ultrafiltration hollow fiber retains the product while the microfiltration filter allows product to be collected in the permeate. Permeate was only drawn from the microfiltration filter during the periodic harvest cycles while the permeate was drawn from the ultrafiltration filter during the none harvest cycle periods. This allowed for the accumulation of product in the bioreactor between the periodic harvests. Five harvest cycles were conducted over a 24-day perfusion process. Each harvest cycle was collected for a day with the first harvest cycle starting on day 11. Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract