The Geographical Distribution of Laryngeal Cancer in Iran from 2004 to 2014

Background: Laryngeal cancer accounts for about 1 to 2 % of all cancers; this incidence rate depends on the geographical region and ethnicity. Due to the lack of a comprehensive epidemiological study on laryngeal cancer in recent years, we designed this study to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of laryngeal cancer. Aim: This study aimed to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of laryngeal cancer in Iran from 2004 to 2014. Methods: The data collected from the Iranian National Cancer Data System registry, all the cases of laryngeal cancer (with topography code 32 and histology of laryngeal cancer) have been retrieved and analyzed from a comprehensive cancer database during the 11 years' period. Then statistical data were analyzed by SPSS, version 16. Results: During the 11-year study, 13,241 new cases of laryngeal cancer were recorded, of which 11454 were men (86%) and 1788 were women (14%). According to this assessment, North Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchestan, and East Azerbaijan provinces had the highest growth rate, and North Khorasan, Gilan, and Kerman provinces with the highest incidence rates of 4.44, 3.29, and 2.23 per 100,000 respectively, between 2004 and 2014. Conclusion: According to the results of this study, the incidence rate of laryngeal cancer, especially in women, is increasing in Iran. Further studies are needed to investigate the causes of increased incidence

Spinal Cord Injury Affects Gene Expression of Transmembrane Proteins in Tissue and Release of Extracellular Vesicle in Blood: In Silico and In Vivo Analysis

Objective: Spinal cord injury (SCI) can disrupt membrane transmission by affecting transmembrane channels orneurotransmitter release. This study aimed to explore gene expression changes of transmembrane proteins underlyingSCI through bioinformatics approaches and confirming in SCI model in rats.Materials and Methods: In this experimental study, the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in acute and subacuteSCI were obtained based on microarray data downloaded from the gene expression omnibus (GEO). Transmembraneproteins of DEGs were recognized by using the UniProt annotation and transmembrane helices prediction (TMHMM)methods. The model of SCI was established through a weight-dropping procedure in rats. To confirm the SCI model,hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining was performed. Total mRNA was extracted from spinal cord tissues, and the RNAexpression profile of some of the significantly changed genes in the previous part that has been confirmed by real-timepolymerase chain reaction (PCR). Blood was collected from rats before sacrificing. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) wereisolated by high-speed centrifugation from plasma. For the assessment of protein expression, western blotting wasused.Results: Based on bioinformatics analysis, we candidated a set of membrane proteins in SCI’s acute and sub-acutephases, and confirmed significant upregulation in Grm1, Nrg1, CD63, Enpp3, and Cxcr4 between the acute and controlgroups and downregulation in Enpp3 between acute and subacute groups at the RNA level. Considering CD63 as anEV marker, we examined the protein expression of CD9 and CD63 in the plasma-derived EVs, and CD9 has significantexpression between acute and control groups. We also demonstrate no significant CD63 and Cxcr4 expressionsbetween groups.Conclusion: Our results provide new insight into the relationship between candidate transmembrane protein expressionand different stages of SCI using in-silico approaches. Also, results show the release of EVs in blood in each group afterSCI helping enlarge strategies to enhance recovery following SCI

Transition in Iran’s Electricity Market Considering the Policies on Elimination of Electricity Subsidies: System Dynamics Application

Because of electricity subsidies, electricity price in Iran is much lower than its real value, and the growth of electricity demand is much more than its rational rate, which in turn implies ever increasing investment in the electricity section by the Government. Therefore, the recent Government policies are based on elimination of electricity subsidies, followed by commissioning complete electricity market to attract investors in the power industry. In this paper, a model is developed for electricity demand prediction and evaluating Iran's current electricity market and complete market to deal with optimistic and pessimistic electricity demand. Hence, a system dynamics framework is applied to model and generate scenarios because of its physical capability and information flows that allow understanding the of behavior nonlinear dynamics in uncertain conditions. To validate the model, it was compared with the available actual data within 21 years, since (1988-2008). After model validation, two scenarios are evaluated based on the influence of eliminating electricity subsidies on electricity demand in short-term and long-term and then commissioning of the probable complete electricity market is evaluated. For this purpose, first, the electricity demand is estimated for the target years and then changing dynamics in transition of Iran’s electricity market is analyzed

A Review on Catalysts Development for Steam Reforming of Biodiesel Derived Glycerol; Promoters and Supports

In the last decades, environmental crises and increasing energy demand have motivated researchers to investigate the practical techniques for the production of clean fuels through renewable energy resources. It is essential to develop technologies to utilize glycerol as a byproduct derived from biodiesel. Glycerol is known as a sustainable and clean source of energy, which can be an alternative resource for the production of value-added chemicals and hydrogen. The hydrogen production via steam reforming (SR) of glycerol using Ni-based catalysts is one of the promising approaches for the entry of the hydrogen economy. The purpose of this review paper is to highlight the recent trends in hydrogen production over Ni-based catalysts using the SR of glycerol. The intrinsic ability of Ni to disperse easily over variable supports makes it a more viable active phase for the SR catalysts. The optimal reaction conditions have been indicated as 650–900 °C, 1 bar, and 15 wt% Ni in catalysts for high glycerol conversion. In this review paper, the effects of various supports, different promoters (K, Ca, Sr, Ce, La, Cr, Fe), and process conditions on the catalytic performance have been summarized and discussed to provide a better comparison for the future works. It was found that Ce, Mg, and La have a significant effect on catalytic performance as promoters. Moreover, SR of glycerol over hydrotalcite and perovskite-based catalysts have been reviewed as they suggest high catalytic performance in SR of glycerol with improved thermal stability and coke resistance. More specifically, the Ni/LaNi0.9Cu0.1O3 synthesized using perovskite-type supports has shown high glycerol conversion and sufficient hydrogen selectivity at low temperatures. On the other hand, hydrotalcite-like catalysts have shown higher catalytic stability due to high thermal stability and low coke formation. It is vital to notice that the primary concern is developing a high-performance catalyst to utilize crude glycerol efficiently

Preparation and Characterization of Ni/ZrTiAlOx Catalyst via Sol-Gel and Impregnation Methods for Low Temperature Dry Reforming of Methane

Recently, the dry reforming of methane (DRM) has received much attention as a conversion technology of greenhouse gases. Ni-based catalysts supported on ternary metal oxide composite (ZrTiAlOx) were prepared to improve the coke resistance properties in the DRM (CH4:CO2 = 1) at low temperature. The ZrTiAlOx supports with different ratios of Zr/Ti were prepared through the modified Pechini sol-gel method, and then the Ni was impregnated on the synthesized support via the incipient wetness impregnation method. Considering the Zr/Ti ratios, different catalytic activity and durability in the DRM were identified. The Ni/ZrTiAlOx catalyst with Zr/Ti of 2 exhibited enhanced coke inhibition property compared to the others at low temperature DRM for 50 h. The catalysts with a high Zr/Ti ratio under the same condition were rapidly deactivated, while the catalyst with a low Zr/Ti ratio showed deficient activity. It was found from temperature-programmed surface reactions (TPSR) and DRIFTS (Diffuse Reflectance Infrared Fourier Transform Spectroscopy) analysis that the addition of Ti has led in to higher catalytic stability at Zr/Ti = 2, which could be as a result of oxygen vacancies generated by the ternary metal oxides. Ni/ZrTiAlOx catalyst with ratio of Zr/Ti = 2 showed high stability and good catalytic activity towards DRM for the production of syngas

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p