Geovisual analytics to enhance spatial scan statistic interpretation: an analysis of U.S. cervical cancer mortality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic and its software implementation – SaTScan – are widely used for detecting and evaluating geographic clusters. However, two issues make using the method and interpreting its results non-trivial: (1) the method lacks cartographic support for understanding the clusters in geographic context and (2) results from the method are sensitive to parameter choices related to cluster scaling (abbreviated as scaling parameters), but the system provides no direct support for making these choices. We employ both established and novel geovisual analytics methods to address these issues and to enhance the interpretation of SaTScan results. We demonstrate our geovisual analytics approach in a case study analysis of cervical cancer mortality in the U.S.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We address the first issue by providing an interactive visual interface to support the interpretation of SaTScan results. Our research to address the second issue prompted a broader discussion about the sensitivity of SaTScan results to parameter choices. Sensitivity has two components: (1) the method can identify clusters that, while being statistically significant, have heterogeneous contents comprised of both high-risk and low-risk locations and (2) the method can identify clusters that are unstable in location and size as the spatial scan scaling parameter is varied. To investigate cluster result stability, we conducted multiple SaTScan runs with systematically selected parameters. The results, when scanning a large spatial dataset (e.g., U.S. data aggregated by county), demonstrate that no single spatial scan scaling value is known to be optimal to identify clusters that exist at different scales; instead, multiple scans that vary the parameters are necessary. We introduce a novel method of measuring and visualizing reliability that facilitates identification of homogeneous clusters that are stable across analysis scales. Finally, we propose a logical approach to proceed through the analysis of SaTScan results.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The geovisual analytics approach described in this manuscript facilitates the interpretation of spatial cluster detection methods by providing cartographic representation of SaTScan results and by providing visualization methods and tools that support selection of SaTScan parameters. Our methods distinguish between heterogeneous and homogeneous clusters and assess the stability of clusters across analytic scales.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>We analyzed the cervical cancer mortality data for the United States aggregated by county between 2000 and 2004. We ran SaTScan on the dataset fifty times with different parameter choices. Our geovisual analytics approach couples SaTScan with our visual analytic platform, allowing users to interactively explore and compare SaTScan results produced by different parameter choices. The Standardized Mortality Ratio and reliability scores are visualized for all the counties to identify stable, homogeneous clusters. We evaluated our analysis result by comparing it to that produced by other independent techniques including the Empirical Bayes Smoothing and Kafadar spatial smoother methods. The geovisual analytics approach introduced here is developed and implemented in our Java-based Visual Inquiry Toolkit.</p

Fire History of the Appalachian Region: A Review and Synthesis

The importance of fire in shaping Appalachian vegetation has become increasingly apparent over the last 25 years. This period has seen declines in oak (Quercus) and pine (Pinus) forests and other fire-dependent ecosystems, which in the near-exclusion of fire are being replaced by fire-sensitive mesophytic vegetation. These vegetation changes imply that Appalachian vegetation had developed under a history of burning before the fire-exclusion era, a possibility that has motivated investigations of Appalachian fire history using proxy evidence. Here we synthesize those investigations to obtain an up-to-date portrayal of Appalachian fire history. We organize the report by data type, beginning with studies of high-resolution data on recent fires to provide a context for interpreting the lower-resolution proxy data. Each proxy is addressed in a subsequent chapter, beginning with witness trees and continuing to fire-scarred trees, stand age structure, and soil and sediment charcoal. Taken together, these proxies portray frequent burning in the past. Fires had occurred at short intervals (a few years) for centuries before the fire-exclusion era. Indeed, burning has played an important ecological role for millennia. Fires were especially common and spatially extensive on landscapes with large expanses of oak and pine forest, notably in the Ridge and Valley province and the Blue Ridge Mountains. Burning favored oak and pine at the expense of mesophytic competitors, but fire exclusion has enabled mesophytic plants to expand from fire-sheltered sites onto dry slopes that formerly supported pyrogenic vegetation. These changes underscore the need to restore fire-dependent ecosystems

Epidemiology of Contemporary Seroincident HIV Infection in the Navy and Marine Corps

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection continues at a steady rate among U.S. Sailors and Marines. This study provides the first service-specific description of HIV infection demographics. All Sailors and Marines identified as HIV infected between January 2005 and August 2010 were included. The project compared personnel and epidemiologic data, and tested reposed sera in the Department of Defense Serum Repository. This group comprised 410 Sailors and 86 Marines, predominantly men. HIV infected Marines were more likely to be foreign born than their Navy counterparts, 42% versus 10%, p \u3c 0.001. Approximately half of the patients had deployed including to the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. Nearly half of each group was infected by the age of 25. Similar to the U.S. epidemic, Black race was over-represented. Unlike national rates, Hispanic Sailors and Marines were not over-represented. Demographics were distinct for those of specific occupational specialties. Certain ship classes carried lower incidences. Clustering of HIV infection risk occurred around deployment. The Navy and Marine Corps have different patterns of HIV infection, which may merit distinct approaches to prevention. The Navy may have unique targets for prevention efforts to include pipeline training and first assignment as well as particular occupational environments

Advancing dendrochronological studies of fire in the United States

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Dendroecology is the science that dates tree rings to their exact calendar year of formation to study processes that influence forest ecology (e.g., Speer 2010 [1], Amoroso et al., 2017 [2]). Reconstruction of past fire regimes is a core application of dendroecology, linking fire history to population dynamics and climate effects on tree growth and survivorship. Since the early 20th century when dendrochronologists recognized that tree rings retained fire scars (e.g., Figure 1), and hence a record of past fires, they have conducted studies worldwide to reconstruct [2] the historical range and variability of fire regimes (e.g., frequency, severity, seasonality, spatial extent), [3] the influence of fire regimes on forest structure and ecosystem dynamics, and [4] the top-down (e.g., climate) and bottom-up (e.g., fuels, topography) drivers of fire that operate at a range of temporal and spatial scales. As in other scientific fields, continued application of dendrochronological techniques to study fires has shaped new trajectories for the science. Here we highlight some important current directions in the United States (US) and call on our international colleagues to continue the conversation with perspectives from other countries

Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome

The tundra biome is experiencing rapid temperature increases that have been linked to a shift in tundra vegetation composition towards greater shrub dominance. Shrub expansion can amplify warming by altering the surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost temperatures. To account for these feedbacks, global climate models must include realistic projections of vegetation dynamics, and in particular tundra shrub expansion, yet the mechanisms driving shrub expansion remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting of multi-decadal time series of annual growth of shrub species provide a previously untapped resource to explore climate-growth relationships across the tundra biome. We analysed a dataset of approximately 42,000 annual growth records from 1821 individuals, comprising 25 species from eight genera, from 37 arctic and alpine sites. Our analyses demonstrate that the sensitivity of shrub growth to climate was (1) heterogeneous across the tundra biome, (2) greater at sites with higher soil moisture and (3) strongest for taller shrub species growing at the northern or upper elevational edge of their range. Across latitudinal gradients in the Arctic, climate sensitivity of growth was greatest at the boundary between low- and high-arctic vegetation zones, where permafrost conditions are changing and the majority of the global permafrost soil carbon pool is stored. Thus, in order to more accurately estimate feedbacks among shrub change, albedo, permafrost thaw, carbon storage and climate, the observed variation in climate-growth relationships of shrub species across the tundra biome will need to be incorporated into earth system models.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Careers in context: An international study of career goals as mesostructure between societies’ career-related human potential and proactive career behavior

Careers exist in a societal context that offers both constraints and opportunities for career actors. Whereas most studies focus on proximal individual and/or organisational‐level variables, we provide insights into how career goals and behaviours are understood and embedded in the more distal societal context. More specifically, we operationalise societal context using the career‐related human potential composite and aim to understand if and why career goals and behaviours vary between countries. Drawing on a model of career structuration and using multilevel mediation modelling, we draw on a survey of 17,986 employees from 27 countries, covering nine of GLOBE's 10 cultural clusters, and national statistical data to examine the relationship between societal context (macrostructure building the career‐opportunity structure) and actors' career goals (career mesostructure) and career behaviour (actions). We show that societal context in terms of societies' career‐related human potential composite is negatively associated with the importance given to financial achievements as a specific career mesostructure in a society that is positively related to individuals' proactive career behaviour. Our career mesostructure fully mediates the relationship between societal context and individuals' proactive career behaviour. In this way, we expand career theory's scope beyond occupation‐ and organisation‐related factors

The North American tree-ring fire-scar network

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus. Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America