The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses

AgentSeal : agent-based model describing movement of marine central-place foragers

Acknowledgement This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 746602. GA and SB have been partly funded by Gemini Wind park and the NWO (project ALWPP.2017.003). We would like to thank J. Grecian, D. Thomson, M. Fedak, M. Carter, D. Russell, A. Hall, J. Ransijn, H. Vance and M. Civil for help in model design.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Communicating complex ecological models to non-scientist end users

Complex computer models are used to predict how ecological systems respond to changing environ- mental conditions or management actions. Communicating these complex models to non-scientists is challenging, but necessary, because decision-makers and other end users need to understand, accept, and use the models and their predictions. Despite the importance of communicating effectively with end users, there is little guidance available as to how this may be achieved. Here, we review the challenges typically encountered by modellers attempting to communicate complex models and their outputs to managers and other non-scientist end users. We discuss the implications of failing to communicate effec- tively in each case. We then suggest a general approach for communicating with non-scientist end users. We detail the specific elements to be communicated using the example of individual-based models, which are widely used in ecology. We demonstrate that despite their complexity, individual-based models have characteristics that can facilitate communication with non-scientists. The approach we propose is based on our experiences and methods used in other fields, but which until now have not been synthesised or made broadly available to ecologists. Our aim is to facilitate the process of communicating with end users of complex models and encourage more modellers to engage in it by providing a structured approach to the communication process. We argue that developing measures of the effectiveness of communication with end users will help increase the impact of complex models in ecology

The regional species richness and genetic diversity of Arctic vegetation reflect both past glaciations and current climate

AIM : The Arctic has experienced marked climatic differences between glacial and interglacial periods and is now subject to a rapidly warming climate. Knowledge of the effects of historical processes on current patterns of diversity may aid predictions of the responses of vegetation to future climate change. We aim to test whether plant species and genetic diversity patterns are correlated with time since deglaciation at regional and local scales. We also investigate whether species richness is correlated with genetic diversity in vascular plants. LOCATION : Circumarctic. METHODS : We investigated species richness of the vascular plant flora of 21 floristic provinces and examined local species richness in 6215 vegetation plots distributed across the Arctic. We assessed levels of genetic diversity inferred from amplified fragment length polymorphism variation across populations of 23 common Arctic species. Correlations between diversity measures and landscape age (time since deglaciation) as well as variables characterizing current climate were analysed using spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive models. RESULTS : lts Regional species richness of vascular plants and genetic diversity were correlated with each other, and both showed a positive relationship with landscape age. Plot species richness showed differing responses for vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens. At this finer scale, the richness of vascular plants was not significantly related to landscape age, which had a small effect size compared to the models of bryophyte and lichen richness. MAIN CONCLUSION : Our study suggests that imprints of past glaciations in Arctic vegetation diversity patterns at the regional scale are still detectable today. Since Arctic vegetation is still limited by post-glacial migration lag, it will most probably also exhibit lags in response to current and future climate change. Our results also suggest that local species richness at the plot scale is more determined by local habitat factors.Compilation of the species richness data was made possible through the TFI Networks grant to CD, “Effect Studies and Adaptation to Climate Change,” under the Norforsk initiative (2011 – 2014) which supported two CBIONET-AVA workshops held in Denmark during 2013. The genetic studies were funded by the Research Council of Norway (grant nos. 150322/720 and 170952/V40 to CB).http://http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1466-82382017-04-30hb2016Plant Production and Soil Scienc

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon¹⁻³. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses⁴⁻⁹. As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world’s major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve ‘health’: about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.Keywords: Ecology, Environmental scienc

Possible Causes of a Harbour Porpoise Mass Stranding in Danish Waters in 2005

<div><p>An unprecedented 85 harbour porpoises stranded freshly dead along approximately 100 km of Danish coastline from 7–15 April, 2005. This total is considerably above the mean weekly stranding rate for the whole of Denmark, both for any time of year, 1.23 animals/week (ranging from 0 to 20 during 2003–2008, excluding April 2005), and specifically in April, 0.65 animals/week (0 to 4, same period). Bycatch was established as the cause of death for most of the individuals through typical indications of fisheries interactions, including net markings in the skin and around the flippers, and loss of tail flukes. Local fishermen confirmed unusually large porpoise bycatch in nets set for lumpfish (<i>Cyclopterus lumpus</i>) and the strandings were attributed to an early lumpfish season. However, lumpfish catches for 2005 were not unusual in terms of season onset, peak or total catch, when compared to 2003–2008. Consequently, human activity was combined with environmental factors and the variation in Danish fisheries landings (determined through a principal component analysis) in a two-part statistical model to assess the correlation of these factors with both the presence of fresh strandings and the numbers of strandings on the Danish west coast. The final statistical model (which was forward selected using Akaike information criterion; AIC) indicated that naval presence is correlated with higher rates of porpoise strandings, particularly in combination with certain fisheries, although it is not correlated with the actual presence of strandings. Military vessels from various countries were confirmed in the area from the 7th April, en route to the largest naval exercise in Danish waters to date (Loyal Mariner 2005, 11–28 April). Although sonar usage cannot be confirmed, it is likely that ships were testing various equipment prior to the main exercise. Thus naval activity cannot be ruled out as a possible contributing factor.</p> </div

Lumpfish landings from the Skagerrak and Central North Sea, 2003–2008.

<p>The data is aggregated in 5-day periods and the time of the 2005 UME is highlighted in red. The mean line and standard deviation (SD) were calculated from values in the same 5-day periods across the entire 2003–2008 period, including 2005.</p

Harbour porpoise strandings on the Danish west coast, 2003–2008 (N = 438).

<p>The data is aggregated in 5-day periods and the time of the 2005 UME is highlighted in red. The mean line and standard deviation (SD) were calculated from values in the same 5-day periods across the entire 2003–2008 period, including 2005.</p

Locations of harbour porpoise strandings on the west coast of Denmark, 2003–2008 (N = 438).

<p>Circled crosses represent strandings in the April 2005 UME, with date (in April) given at each location, with the number of porpoises found in parenthesis. The location of the additional stranding on the 18^th is also noted.</p