Computing Equilibria of Prediction Markets via Persuasion

We study the computation of equilibria in prediction markets in perhaps the most fundamental special case with two players and three trading opportunities. To do so, we show equivalence of prediction market equilibria with those of a simpler signaling game with commitment introduced by Kong and Schoenebeck (2018). We then extend their results by giving computationally efficient algorithms for additional parameter regimes. Our approach leverages a new connection between prediction markets and Bayesian persuasion, which also reveals interesting conceptual insights

Pediatric Cushing disease: disparities in disease severity and outcomes in the Hispanic and African-American populations.

BackgroundLittle is known about the contribution of racial and socioeconomic disparities to severity and outcomes in children with Cushing disease (CD).MethodsA total of 129 children with CD, 45 Hispanic/Latino or African-American (HI/AA) and 84 non-Hispanic White (non-HW), were included in this study. A 10-point index for rating severity (CD severity) incorporated the degree of hypercortisolemia, glucose tolerance, hypertension, anthropomorphic measurements, disease duration, and tumor characteristics. Race, ethnicity, age, gender, local obesity prevalence, estimated median income, and access to care were assessed in regression analyses of CD severity.ResultsThe mean CD severity in the HI/AA group was worse than that in the non-HW group (4.9±2.0 vs. 4.1±1.9, P=0.023); driving factors included higher cortisol levels and larger tumor size. Multiple regression models confirmed that race (P=0.027) and older age (P=0.014) were the most important predictors of worse CD severity. When followed up a median of 2.3 years after surgery, the relative risk for persistent CD combined with recurrence was 2.8 times higher in the HI/AA group compared with that in the non-HW group (95% confidence interval: 1.2-6.5).ConclusionOur data show that the driving forces for the discrepancy in severity of CD are older age and race/ethnicity. Importantly, the risk for persistent and recurrent CD was higher in minority children

Male Microchimerism at High Levels in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells from Women with End Stage Renal Disease before Kidney Transplantation

Patients with end stage renal diseases (ESRD) are generally tested for donor chimerism after kidney transplantation for tolerance mechanism purposes. But, to our knowledge, no data are available on natural and/or iatrogenic microchimerism (Mc), deriving from pregnancy and/or blood transfusion, acquired prior to transplantation. In this context, we tested the prevalence of male Mc using a real time PCR assay for DYS14, a Y-chromosome specific sequence, in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from 55 women with ESRD, prior to their first kidney transplantation, and compared them with results from 82 healthy women. Male Mc was also quantified in 5 native kidney biopsies obtained two to four years prior to blood testing and in PBMC from 8 women collected after female kidney transplantation, several years after the initial blood testing. Women with ESRD showed statistically higher frequencies (62%) and quantities (98 genome equivalent cells per million of host cells, gEq/M) of male Mc in their PBMC than healthy women (16% and 0.3 gEq/M, p<0.00001 and p = 0.0005 respectively). Male Mc was increased in women with ESRD whether they had or not a history of male pregnancy and/or of blood transfusion. Three out of five renal biopsies obtained a few years prior to the blood test also contained Mc, but no correlation could be established between earlier Mc in a kidney and later presence in PBMC. Finally, several years after female kidney transplantation, male Mc was totally cleared from PBMC in all women tested but one. This intriguing and striking initial result of natural and iatrogenic male Mc persistence in peripheral blood from women with ESRD raises several hypotheses for the possible role of these cells in renal diseases. Further studies are needed to elucidate mechanisms of recruitment and persistence of Mc in women with ESRD

The factor structure and psychometric properties of the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation - Outcome Measure (CORE-OM) in Norwegian clinical and non-clinical samples

Background The Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation - Outcome Measure (CORE-OM) is a 34-item instrument developed to monitor clinically significant change in out-patients. The CORE-OM covers four domains: well-being, problems/symptoms, functioning and risk, and sums up in two total scores: the mean of All items, and the mean of All non-risk items. The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Norwegian translation of the CORE-OM. Methods A clinical sample of 527 out-patients from North Norwegian specialist psychiatric services, and a non-clinical sample of 464 persons were obtained. The non-clinical sample was a convenience sample consisting of friends and family of health personnel, and of students of medicine and clinical psychology. Students also reported psychological stress. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was employed in half the clinical sample. Confirmatory (CFA) factor analyses modelling the theoretical sub-domains were performed in the remaining half of the clinical sample. Internal consistency, means, and gender and age differences were studied by comparing the clinical and non-clinical samples. Stability, effect of language (Norwegian versus English), and of psychological stress was studied in the sub-sample of students. Finally, cut-off scores were calculated, and distributions of scores were compared between clinical and non-clinical samples, and between students reporting stress or no stress. Results The results indicate that the CORE-OM both measures general (g) psychological distress and sub-domains, of which risk of harm separates most clearly from the g factor. Internal consistency, stability and cut-off scores compared well with the original English version. No, or only negligible, language effects were found. Gender differences were only found for the well-being domain in the non-clinical sample and for the risk domain in the clinical sample. Current patient status explained differences between clinical and non-clinical samples, also when gender and age were controlled for. Students reporting psychological distress during last week scored significantly higher than students reporting no stress. These results further validate the recommended cut-off point of 1 between clinical and non-clinical populations. Conclusions The CORE-OM in Norwegian has psychometric properties at the same level as the English original, and could be recommended for general clinical use. A cut-off point of 1 is recommended for both genders

Future oriented group training for suicidal patients: a randomized clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In routine psychiatric treatment most clinicians inquire about indicators of suicide risk, but once the risk is assessed not many clinicians systematically focus on suicidal thoughts. This may reflect a commonly held opinion that once the depressive or anxious symptoms are effectively treated the suicidal symptoms will wane. Consequently, many clients with suicidal thoughts do not receive systematic treatment of their suicidal thinking. There are many indications that specific attention to suicidal thinking is necessary to effectively decrease the intensity and recurrence of suicidal thinking. We therefore developed a group training for patients with suicidal thoughts that is easy to apply in clinical settings as an addition to regular treatment and that explicitly focuses on suicidal thinking. We hypothesize that such an additional training will decrease the frequency and intensity of suicidal thinking.</p> <p>We based the training on cognitive behavioural approaches of hopelessness, worrying, and future perspectives, given the theories of Beck, McLeod and others, concerning the lack of positive expectations characteristic for many suicidal patients. In collaboration with each participant in the training individual positive future possibilities and goals were challenged.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We evaluate the effects of our program on suicide ideation (primary outcome measure). The study is conducted in a regular treatment setting with regular inpatients and outpatients representative for Dutch psychiatric treatment settings. The design is a RCT with two arms: TAU (Treatment as Usual) versus TAU plus the training. Follow up measurements are taken 12 months after the first assessment.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>There is a need for research on the effectiveness of interventions in suicidology, especially RCT's. In our treatment program we combine aspects and interventions that have been proven to be useful in the treatment of suicidal thinking and behavior.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN56421759</p

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Global prevalence of childhood cataract: a systematic review

Childhood cataract is an avoidable cause of visual disability worldwide and is a priority for VISION 2020: The Right to Sight. There is a paucity of information about the burden of cataract in children and the aim of this review is to assess the global prevalence of childhood cataract. The methodology for the review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We performed a literature search for studies reporting estimates of prevalence or incidence of cataract among children (aged<18 years) at any global location using the Cochrane Library, Medline and Embase up to January 2015. No restrictions were imposed based on language or year of publication. Study quality was assessed using a critical appraisal tool designed for systematic reviews of prevalence. Twenty prevalence and four incidence studies of childhood cataract from five different geographical regions were included. The overall prevalence of childhood cataract and congenital cataract was in the range from 0.32 to 22.9/10000 children (median=1.03) and 0.63 to 9.74/10000 (median=1.71), respectively. The incidence ranged from 1.8 to 3.6/10000 per year. The prevalence of childhood cataract in low-income economies was found to be 0.42 to 2.05 compared with 0.63 to 13.6/10000 in high-income economies. There was no difference in the prevalence based on laterality or gender. This review highlights substantial gaps in the epidemiological knowledge of childhood cataract worldwide, particularly from low and lower middle-income economies. More studies are needed using standard definitions and case ascertainment methods with large enough sample sizes

The Relationship Between Therapist Effects and Therapy Delivery Factors: Therapy Modality, Dosage, and Non-completion.

To consider the relationships between, therapist variability, therapy modality, therapeutic dose and therapy ending type and assess their effects on the variability of patient outcomes. Multilevel modeling was used to analyse a large sample of routinely collected data. Model residuals identified more and less effective therapists, controlling for case-mix. After controlling for case mix, 5.8 % of the variance in outcome was due to therapists. More sessions generally improved outcomes, by about half a point on the PHQ-9 for each additional session, while non-completion of therapy reduced the amount of pre-post change by six points. Therapy modality had little effect on outcome. Patient and service outcomes may be improved by greater focus on the variability between therapists and in keeping patients in therapy to completion

Annex to Quirke et al. Quality assurance in pathology in colorectal cancer screening and diagnosis: annotations of colorectal lesions

Multidisciplinary, evidence-based European Guidelines for quality assurance in colorectal cancer screening and diagnosis have recently been developed by experts in a pan-European project coordinated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The full guideline document includes a chapter on pathology with pan-European recommendations which take into account the diversity and heterogeneity of health care systems across the EU. The present paper is based on the annex to the pathology chapter which attempts to describe in greater depth some of the issues raised in the chapter in greater depth, particularly details of special interest to pathologists. It is presented here to make the relevant discussion known to a wider scientific audience