Statistics versus livelihoods: questioning Rwanda’s pathway out of poverty

Recent statistics indicate that poverty in Rwanda decreased impressively between 2006 and 2014. This seems to confirm Rwanda’s developmental progress. This article however argues for a more cautious interpretation of household survey data. The authors contrast macro-level statistical analysis with in-depth field research on livelihood conditions. Macro-economic numbers provide interesting information, however differentiated evidence is required to understand how poverty ‘works’ in everyday life. On the basis of the Rwandan case study, the authors conclude that because of the high political stakes of data collection and analysis, and given that relations of power influence the production of knowledge on poverty, cross-checking is crucial

Dominant atmospheric circulation patterns associated with abnormal rainfall events over Rwanda, East Africa

The study investigated the dominant atmospheric circulation patterns associated with abnormal rainfall over Rwanda during the March–May (MAM) rainfall season in 1981–2010. The data sets used in this study include: rainfall, wind, sea surface temperature (SST), and humidity. Correlation and composite analysis and Percent of Normal Index (PNI) were deployed in this study. In the wet years (1987, 1988, and 1998), the country was dominated by moisture convergence, which is in line with wind anomalies that exhibits strong westerly winds from the Atlantic Ocean and southeasterly winds originated from the Indian Ocean. These winds carry moist air mass passing over Congo to the study area, leading to wet events. On the other hand, easterly winds were noted over the study area during the dry years (1984, 2000, 2007, and 2008). The observed wet years coincided with the El Niño events, while the dry years are noted during the La Niña episodes. The dry years exhibited a wide spread of moisture divergence anomaly at the low level and were characterized by the sinking motion as opposed to the wet years with the rising motion. The anomalies of velocity potential/divergence further showed that the wet (dry) years were characterized by convergence (divergence) at the low level. The results also show that there exists a low positive correlation between mean MAM rainfall and SST over the Indian Ocean, which shows minimum influence of the Ocean. On the other hand, it was noted that rainfall amounts is significantly correlated at 95% confidence level with the elevation (altitude) of a given station. This study improves the understanding of the occurrence of wet and dry events in Rwanda, which is helpful in future monitoring of these events

Measuring and modelling concurrency

This article explores three critical topics discussed in the recent debate over concurrency (overlapping sexual partnerships): measurement of the prevalence of concurrency, mathematical modelling of concurrency and HIV epidemic dynamics, and measuring the correlation between HIV and concurrency. The focus of the article is the concurrency hypothesis – the proposition that presumed high prevalence of concurrency explains sub-Saharan Africa's exceptionally high HIV prevalence. Recent surveys using improved questionnaire design show reported concurrency ranging from 0.8% to 7.6% in the region. Even after adjusting for plausible levels of reporting errors, appropriately parameterized sexual network models of HIV epidemics do not generate sustainable epidemic trajectories (avoid epidemic extinction) at levels of concurrency found in recent surveys in sub-Saharan Africa. Efforts to support the concurrency hypothesis with a statistical correlation between HIV incidence and concurrency prevalence are not yet successful. Two decades of efforts to find evidence in support of the concurrency hypothesis have failed to build a convincing case

Impact of maternal ART on mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV at six weeks postpartum in Rwanda

BACKGROUND: In 2010, Rwanda adopted ART for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV from pregnant women living with HIV during pregnancy and breasfeeding period. This study examines rates of mother-to-childtransmission of HIV at 6–10 weeks postpartum and risk factors for mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) among HIV infected women on ART during pregnancy and breastfeeding. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey study was conducted between July 2011–June 2012 among HIV-exposed infants aged 6–10 weeks and their mothers/caregivers. Stratified multi-stage, probability proportional to size and systematic sampling to select a national representative sample of clients. Consenting mothers/caregivers were interviewed on demographic and program interventions. Dry blood spots from HIV-exposed infants were collected for HIV testing using DNA PCR technique. Results are weighted for sample realization. Univariable analysis of socio-demographic and programmatic determinants of early mother-to-child transmission of HIV was conducted. Variables were retained for final multivariable models if they were either at least of marginal significance (p-value < 0.10) or played a confounding role (the variable had a noticeable impact > 10% change on the effect estimate). RESULTS: The study sample was 1639 infants with HIV test results. Twenty-six infants were diagnosed HIV-positive translating to a weighted MTCT estimate of 1.58% (95% CI 1.05–2.37%). Coverage of most elimination of MTCT (EMTCT) program interventions, was above 80, and 90.4% of mother-infant pairs received antiretroviral treatment or prophylaxis. Maternal ART and infant antiretroviral prophylaxis (OR 0.01; 95%CI 0.001–0.17) and maternal age older than 25 years were significantly protective (OR 0.33; 95%CI 0.14–0.78). No disclosure of HIV status, not testing for syphilis during pregnancy and preterm birth were significant risk factors for MTCT. Factors suggesting higher sociodemographic status (flush toilet, mother self-employed) were borderline risk factors for MTCT. CONCLUSION: ART for all women during pregnancy and breastfeeding was associated with the estimated low MTCT rate of 1.58%. Mothers who did not receive a full package of anti-retroviral therapy according to the Rwanda EMTCT protocol, and young and single mothers were at higher risk of MTCT and should be targeted for support in preventing HIV infection