CAN CHANGE PREDICTION HELP PRIORITISE REDESIGN WORK IN FUTURE ENGINEERING SYSTEMS?

Future design environments will necessitate improved management of the propagation and impacts of changes. To ascertain whether change prediction can assist in making better work prioritisation decisions, this paper develops a new simulation approach and applies it to a model of a complex aerospace product, which was elicited from industry. We use an accepted technique to generate potential change propagation trees and apply Monte Carlo methods to generate a sample space within which multiple scheduling policies could be evaluated and compared. The experiments reveal that poor coordination of change activity can result in significant process inefficiencies, that the potential for inefficiency increases for larger change networks, and that a modest ability to accurately predict change propagation in the specific case at hand could have a dramatic effect in reducing unnecessary rework. The experiments also suggest that the capability of predicting multiple steps of change propagation would provide only minimal additional improvement.International Design Conference - DESIGN 201

Strategic Risk and Reliability Assessment in the Container Liner Shipping Industry Under High Uncertainties

The container liner shipping industry (CLSI) can be defined as one consisting of a fleet of vessels that provides a fixed service at regular intervals between ports of call. It is noteworthy that the CLSI is remarkably acting as an artery in making contributions to the growth of the global economy. However, in an era of unprecedented global changes, the CLSI faces a variety of internal and external risks. Moreover, the reliability and capability of liner shipping operators (LSOs) vary under different environmental conditions. Consequently, it is important for LSOs to ensure that the safety and reliability of their internal operations as well as external environments through proactive assessment of their reliability and capability are intact. The literature indicates that disruptive events have been assessed and investigated by many researchers and practitioners whilst the root causes arising from external risks have not yet been fully identified. The aim of this research was to develop integrated frameworks for assessing risk and reliability in the CLSI under high uncertainties. As a result, three interlocking levels of analysis have been highlighted in this research: 1) business environment-based risk (BEBR), 2) organisational reliability and capability (ORC) of LSOs, and 3) punctuality of containerships. To achieve the aim, firstly, this research employed a combination of different decision-making methods (i.e. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and Evidential Reasoning (ER)) for the assessment of the BEBR. The research outcomes are providing LSOs with a powerful decision-making tool to assess the risk value of a country prior to investment and strategic decisions. In addition, LSOs are also able to regularly assess the overall level of existing BEBR in a host country prior to development of mitigation strategies that can help to minimise financial losses. Secondly, this research employs the Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Network (FBBN) method for evaluating the ORC of LSOs. By exploiting the proposed FBBN model, LSOs are able to conduct a self-evaluation of their ORC prior to the selection of a strategy for enhancing their competitive advantages in the CLSI. A significant concern in container liner shipping operations is the punctuality of containerships. Therefore, thirdly, this research concentrated on analysing and predicting the arrival punctuality of a liner vessel under dynamic environments by employing a combination of Fuzzy Rule-Base (FRB) and FBBN methods. Finally, a probabilistic model for analysing and predicting the departure punctuality of a liner vessel was generated. Accordingly, from the outcomes of this research LSOs are able to forecast their vessels’ arrival and departure punctuality and, further, tactical strategies can be implemented if a vessel is expected to be delayed. In addition, both arrival and departure punctuality models are capable of helping academic researchers and industrial practitioners to comprehend the influence of uncertain environments on the service punctuality. In order to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed methodologies and models, several real test cases were conducted by choosing the Malaysian maritime industry as a focus of study. The results obtained from these test cases have provided useful information for recommending preventive measures, improvement strategies and tactical solutions. The frameworks and models that have been proposed in this research for assessing risk and reliability of the CLSI will provide managerial insights for modelling and assessing complex systems dealing with both quantitative and qualitative criteria in a rational, reliable and transparent manner. In addition, these models have been developed in a generic sense so that they can be tailored for application in other industrial sectors

Giant Pyogenic Granuloma Gravidarum of the Hand

We describe a case of a giant pyogenic granuloma affecting the left index finger of a 23-year-old pregnant lady requiring surgical excision. Pyogenic granuloma gravidarum is a benign hyperplastic lesion that commonly presents on oral mucosa, typically the gums, in approximately 5% of pregnant women. Skin lesions over the fingers are an unusual site during pregnancy with only a few cases reported in the literature. The lesion was excised and a diagnosis of lobular capillary haemangioma was made based on histopathological evaluation. We delayed surgery until after parturition since recurrence is likely to be lower due to lower levels of circulating oestrogen and progesterone. The prognosis is usually excellent following resection. However, recurrences have been reported regardless of the treatment method

Restless Legs Syndrome in Psoriasis: A Multicenter Study on Its Prevalence, Severity, and Impact on Patients

Chuyen Thi Hong Nguyen, Nguyet Huu Minh Nguyen, Trung The Van Department of Dermatology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, 700000, VietnamCorrespondence: Chuyen Thi Hong Nguyen, Department of Dermatology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, 217 Hong Bang Street, Ward 11, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Tel +84 28 38566154, Email [email protected]: Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disease often associated with multiple comorbidities, including restless leg syndrome (RLS). However, the prevalence and impact of RLS on quality of life and clinical outcomes in patients with psoriasis remain underexplored, particularly in Asian populations. In this study, we compared the prevalence of RLS in patients with psoriasis and healthy controls and evaluated the association between RLS and quality of life, sleep disturbances, and clinical severity of psoriasis.Patients and Methods: This multicenter, cross-sectional study involved 212 participants (106 patients with psoriasis and 106 healthy controls) and was conducted from March to July 2024 at three major hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. RLS was diagnosed according to the International Restless Leg Syndrome Study Group (IRLSSG) criteria. The RLS severity, sleep quality, quality of life, and psoriasis severity were assessed using the Restless Legs Syndrome Rating Scale, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Dermatology Life Quality Index, and Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI), respectively.Results: The prevalence of RLS was significantly higher in patients with psoriasis than in healthy controls. Patients with psoriasis and RLS exhibited significantly poorer sleep quality and a greater impact on quality of life than those without RLS. The RLS group exhibited a higher PASI score, indicating more severe psoriasis. A strong positive correlation was observed between PASI and RLS severity.Conclusion: RLS is significantly more prevalent in patients with psoriasis and is associated with worse sleep quality, greater impairment of quality of life, and increased psoriasis severity. Early screening for RLS in patients with psoriasis using the IRLSSG criteria may facilitate timely intervention and improve outcomes.Keywords: psoriasis vulgaris, restless legs syndrome, restless legs syndrome study group, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Dermatology Life Quality Inde

The Development of a Set of Principles for Through-Life Management of Engineering Information

Corporate business models are shifting away from product delivery paradigms to product-service paradigms, where ongoing through-life service support is preeminent. In the UK, a Grand Challenge project (www.kimproject.org) was established to investigate and develop good practice with regard to the design and use of information, knowledge support systems, and business methods necessary for organisations to succeed and profit within this new environment. A key outcome of this work has been the development of a series of principles for through-life management of engineering information, derived from the research insights and experiences of project members in both academia and industry, and supported by detailed explanations and implementation guidance. This report is an approved version of the Principles and their development.This work was undertaken through the “Immortal Information and Through-Life Knowledge Management: Strategies and Tools for the Emerging Product-Service Paradigm” (KIM) project, funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), under grant number EP/C534220/1

Utilization of Renewable Biomass and Waste Materials for Production of Environmentally-Friendly, Bio-based Composites

The introduction of renewable biomass into a polymer matrix is an option competing with other possibilities, such as energy recovery and/or re-use in the carbonized state, or production of chemicals, such as, in the case of ligno-cellulosic waste, concentrates on the production of simple sugars, then possibly leading to the development of biopolymers. These competitive applications have also some interest and market, however with a considerable energy, water and materials consumption, due also to the not always high yielding. Other possibilities for renewable biomass are therefore being used as fillers to increase mechanical performance of polymers or to allow e.g., the absorption of toxic chemicals. This review concentrates on the use of biomass as close as possible to the “as received” state, therefore avoiding whenever suitable any thermal treatment. More specifically, it focuses on its introduction into the three categories of oil-based (or bio-based replacement) of engineered polymers, into industrial biopolymers, such as poly(lactic acid) (PLA) and self-developed biopolymers, such as thermoplastic starch (TPS)

Efficiency of Ontario primary care physicians across payment models : a stochastic frontier analysis

Objective The study examines the relationship between the primary care model that a physician belongs to and the efficiency of the primary care physician in Ontario, Canada. Methods Survey data were collected from 183 self-selected physicians and linked to administrative databases to capture the provision of services to the patients served for the 12 month period ending June 30, 2013, and the characteristics of the patients at the beginning of the study period. Two stochastic frontier regression models were used to estimate efficiency scores and parameters for two separate outputs: the number of distinct patients seen and the number of visits. Results Because of missing data, only 165 physicians were included in the analyses. The average efficiency was 0.72 for both outputs with scores varying from 4 % to 93 % for the visits and 5 % to 94 % for the number of patients seen. We observed that there were both very low and very high efficiency scores within each model. These variations were larger than variations in average scores across models

How are gender inequalities facing India’s one million ASHAs being addressed? Policy origins and adaptations for the world’s largest all-female community health worker programme

Background: India’s accredited social health activist (ASHA) programme consists of almost one million female community health workers (CHWs). Launched in 2005, there is now an ASHA in almost every village and across many urban centres who support health system linkages and provide basic health education and care. This paper examines how the programme is seeking to address gender inequalities facing ASHAs, from the programme's policy origins to recent adaptations. Methods: We reviewed all publically available government documents (n = 96) as well as published academic literature (n = 122) on the ASHA programme. We also drew from the embedded knowledge of this paper’s government-affiliated co-authors, triangulated with key informant interviews (n = 12). Data were analysed thematically through a gender lens. Results: Given that the initial impetus for the ASHA programme was to address reproductive and child health issues, policymakers viewed volunteer female health workers embedded in communities as best positioned to engage with beneficiaries. From these instrumentalist origins, where the programme was designed to meet health system demands, policy evolved to consider how the health system could better support ASHAs. Policy reforms included an increase in the number and regularity of incentivized tasks, social security measures, and government scholarships for higher education. Residential trainings were initiated to build empowering knowledge and facilitate ASHA solidarity. ASHAs were designated as secretaries of their village health committees, encouraging them to move beyond an all-female sphere and increasing their role in accountability initiatives. Measures to address gender based violence were also recently recommended. Despite these well-intended reforms and the positive gains realized, ongoing tensions and challenges related to their gendered social and employment status remain, requiring continued policy attention and adaptation

Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach

Context There is growing recognition that food systems must adapt to become more sustainable and equitable. Consequently, in developing country contexts, there is increasing momentum away from traditional producer-facing value chain upgrades towards efforts to increase both the availability and affordability of nutritious foods at the consumer level. However, such goals must navigate the inherent complexities of agricultural value chains, which involve multiple interactions, feedbacks and unintended consequences, including important but often surprising trade-offs between producers and consumers. Objective and methods Based around the 'Loop' horticultural aggregation scheme of Digital Green in Bihar, India, we develop a system dynamics modelling framework to survey the value chain trade-offs emerging from upgrades that aim to improve the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail-oriented markets. We model the processes of horticultural production, aggregation, marketing, and retailing – searching for futures that are ‘win-win-win’ for: (i) the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail markets, (ii) the profits of farmers participating in aggregation, and (iii) the sustainability of the initial scheme for Digital Green as an organisation. We simulate two internal upgrades to aggregation and two upgrades to the wider enabling environment through a series of 5000 Monte Carlo trajectories – designed to explore the plausible future dynamics of the three outcome dimensions relative to the baseline. Results We find that ‘win-win-win’ futures cannot be achieved by internal changes to the aggregation scheme alone, emerging under a narrow range of scenarios that boost supplies to the small retail market whilst simultaneously supporting the financial takeaways of farmers. In contrast, undesirable producer versus consumer trade-offs emerge as unintended consequences of scaling-up aggregation and the introduction of market-based cold storage. Significance This approach furthers ongoing efforts to capture complex value chain processes, outcomes and upgrades within system dynamics modelling frameworks, before scanning the horizon of plausible external scenarios, internal dynamics and unintended trade-offs to identify ‘win-win-win’ futures for all