Contextual factors among indiscriminate or larger attacks on food or water supplies, 1946-2015

This research updates previous inventories of malicious attacks on food and water to include data from 1946 through mid-2015. A systematic search of news reports, databases and previous inventories of poisoning events was undertaken. Incidents that threatened or were intended to achieve direct harm to humans, and that were either relatively large (number of victims > 4 or indiscriminate in intent or realisation were included. Agents could be chemical, biological or radio-nuclear. Reports of candidate incidents were subjected to systematic inclusion and exclusion criteria as well as validity analysis (not always clearly undertaken in previous inventories of such attacks). We summarise contextual aspects of the attacks that may be important for scenario prioritisation, modelling and defensive preparedness. Opportunity is key to most realised attacks, particularly access to dangerous agents. The most common motives and relative success rate in causing harm were very different between food and water attacks. The likelihood that people were made ill or died also varied by food/water mode, and according to motive and opportunity for delivery of the hazardous agent. Deaths and illness associated with attacks during food manufacture and prior to sale have been fewer than those in some other contexts. Valuable opportunities for food defence improvements are identified in other contexts, especially food prepared in private or community settings

Multiplicity of Nearby Free-floating Ultra-cool Dwarfs: a HST-WFPC2 search for companions

We present HST/WFPC2 observations of a sample of 134 ultra-cool objects (spectral types later than M7) coming from the DENIS, 2MASS and SDSS surveys, with distances estimated to range from 7 pc to 105 pc. Fifteen new ultra-cool binary candidates are reported here. Eleven known binaries are confirmed and orbital motion is detected in some of them. We estimate that the closest binary systems in this sample have periods between 5 and 20 years, and thus dynamical masses will be derived in the near future. For the calculation of binary frequency we restrict ourselves to systems with distances less than 20 pc. After correction of the binaries bias, we find a ratio of visual binaries (at the HST limit of detection) of around 10%, and that ~15% of the 26 objects within 20 parsecs are binary systems with separations between 1 and 8 A.U. The observed frequency of ultra-cool binaries is similar than that of binaries with G-type primaries in the separation range from 2.1 A.U. to 140 A.U. There is also a clear deficit of ultra-cool binaries with separations greater than 15 A.U., and a possible tendency for the binaries to have mass ratios near unity. Most systems have indeed visual and near-infrared brightness ratios between 1 and 0.3. We discuss our results in the framework of current scenarios for the formation and evolution of free-floating brown dwarfs.Comment: 67 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in AJ, September 2003. First submission to AJ: august 2002, 5 submission

The historical vanishing of the Blazhko effect of RR Lyr from GEOS and Kepler surveys

RR Lyr is one of the most studied variable stars. Its light curve has been regularly monitored since the discovery of the periodic variability in 1899. Analysis of all observed maxima allows us to identify two primary pulsation states defined as pulsation over a long (P0 longer than 0.56684 d) and a short (P0 shorter than 0.56682 d) primary pulsation period. These states alternate with intervals of 13-16 yr, and are well defined after 1943. The 40.8 d periodical modulations of the amplitude and the period (i.e. Blazhko effect) were noticed in 1916. We provide homogeneous determinations of the Blazhko period in the different primary pulsation states. The Blazhko period does not follow the variations of P0 and suddenly diminished from 40.8 d to around 39.0 d in 1975. The monitoring of these periodicities deserved and deserves a continuous and intensive observational effort. For this purpose we have built dedicated, transportable and autonomous small instruments, Very Tiny Telescopes (VTTs), to observe the times of maximum brightness of RR Lyr. As immediate results the VTTs recorded the last change of P0 state in mid-2009 and extended the time coverage of the Kepler observations, thus recording a maximum O-C amplitude of the Blazhko effect at the end of 2008, followed by the historically smallest O-C amplitude in late 2013. This decrease is still ongoing and VTT instruments are ready to monitor the expected increase in the next few years.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Contents of appendix B may be requested to first autho

Suppressed Far-UV stellar activity and low planetary mass-loss in the WASP-18 system

WASP-18 hosts a massive, very close-in Jupiter-like planet. Despite its young age (R′HK activity parameter lies slightly below the basal level; there is no significant time-variability in the log R′HK value; there is no detection of the star in the X-rays. We present results of far-UV observations of WASP-18 obtained with COS on board of HST aimed at explaining this anomaly. From the star’s spectral energy distribution, we infer the extinction (E(B − V) ≈ 0.01mag) and then the ISM column density for a number of ions, concluding that ISM absorption is not the origin of the anomaly. We measure the flux of the four stellar emission features detected in the COS spectrum (C II, C III, C IV, Si IV). Comparing the C II/C IV flux ratio measured for WASP-18 with that derived from spectra of nearby stars with known age, we see that the far-UV spectrum of WASP-18 resembles that of old (>5Gyr), inactive stars, in stark contrast with its young age. We conclude that WASP-18 has an intrinsically low activity level, possibly caused by star-planet tidal interaction, as suggested by previous studies. Re-scaling the solar irradiance reference spectrum to match the flux of the Si IV line, yields an XUV integrated flux at the planet orbit of 10.2 erg s−1 cm−2. We employ the rescaled XUV solar fluxes to model of the planetary upper atmosphere, deriving an extremely low thermal mass-loss rate of 10−20MJ Gyr−1. For such high-mass planets, thermal escape is not energy limited, but driven by Jeans escape

Observing Supernova 1987A with the Refurbished Hubble Space Telescope

Observations with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), conducted since 1990, now offer an unprecedented glimpse into fast astrophysical shocks in the young remnant of supernova 1987A. Comparing observations taken in 2010 using the refurbished instruments on HST with data taken in 2004, just before the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph failed, we find that the Ly-a and H-a lines from shock emission continue to brighten, while their maximum velocities continue to decrease. We observe broad blueshifted Ly-a, which we attribute to resonant scattering of photons emitted from hotspots on the equatorial ring. We also detect NV~\lambda\lambda 1239,1243 A line emission, but only to the red of Ly-A. The profiles of the NV lines differ markedly from that of H-a, suggesting that the N^{4+} ions are scattered and accelerated by turbulent electromagnetic fields that isotropize the ions in the collisionless shock.Comment: Science, accepted. Science Express, 02 Sept 2010. 5 figures. Supporting online material can be found at http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/sci;science.1192134/DC

Methane Mitigation:Methods to Reduce Emissions, on the Path to the Paris Agreement

The atmospheric methane burden is increasing rapidly, contrary to pathways compatible with the goals of the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement. Urgent action is required to bring methane back to a pathway more in line with the Paris goals. Emission reduction from “tractable” (easier to mitigate) anthropogenic sources such as the fossil fuel industries and landfills is being much facilitated by technical advances in the past decade, which have radically improved our ability to locate, identify, quantify, and reduce emissions. Measures to reduce emissions from “intractable” (harder to mitigate) anthropogenic sources such as agriculture and biomass burning have received less attention and are also becoming more feasible, including removal from elevated-methane ambient air near to sources. The wider effort to use microbiological and dietary intervention to reduce emissions from cattle (and humans) is not addressed in detail in this essentially geophysical review. Though they cannot replace the need to reach “net-zero” emissions of CO2, significant reductions in the methane burden will ease the timescales needed to reach required CO2 reduction targets for any particular future temperature limit. There is no single magic bullet, but implementation of a wide array of mitigation and emission reduction strategies could substantially cut the global methane burden, at a cost that is relatively low compared to the parallel and necessary measures to reduce CO2, and thereby reduce the atmospheric methane burden back toward pathways consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement

Three-dimensional distribution of ejecta in Supernova 1987A at 10 000 days

Due to its proximity, SN 1987A offers a unique opportunity to directly observe the geometry of a stellar explosion as it unfolds. Here we present spectral and imaging observations of SN 1987A obtained ~10,000 days after the explosion with HST/STIS and VLT/SINFONI at optical and near-infrared wavelengths. These observations allow us to produce the most detailed 3D map of H-alpha to date, the first 3D maps for [Ca II] \lambda \lambda 7292, 7324, [O I] \lambda \lambda 6300, 6364 and Mg II \lambda \lambda 9218, 9244, as well as new maps for [Si I]+[Fe II] 1.644 \mu m and He I 2.058 \mu m. A comparison with previous observations shows that the [Si I]+[Fe II] flux and morphology have not changed significantly during the past ten years, providing evidence that it is powered by 44Ti. The time-evolution of H-alpha shows that it is predominantly powered by X-rays from the ring, in agreement with previous findings. All lines that have sufficient signal show a similar large-scale 3D structure, with a north-south asymmetry that resembles a broken dipole. This structure correlates with early observations of asymmetries, showing that there is a global asymmetry that extends from the inner core to the outer envelope. On smaller scales, the two brightest lines, H-alpha and [Si I]+[Fe II] 1.644 \mu m, show substructures at the level of ~ 200 - 1000 km/s and clear differences in their 3D geometries. We discuss these results in the context of explosion models and the properties of dust in the ejecta.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Comfort Women in Indonesia: A Consideration of the Prewar Socio-legal context in Indonesia and Japan

14 páginas, 5 figuras, 10 tablas.A mechanistic lactation model, based on a theory of mammary cell proliferation and cell death, was studied and compared to the equation of Wood (1967). Lactation curves of British Holstein Friesian cows (176 curves), Spanish Churra sheep (40 curves) and Spanish Murciano-Granadina goats (30 curves) were used for model evaluation. Both models were fitted in their original form using non-linear least squares estimation. The parameters were compared among species and among parity groups within species. In general, both models provided highly significant fits to lactation data and described the data accurately. The mechanistic model performed well against Wood's 1967 equation (hereafter referred to as Wood's equation), resulting in smaller residual mean square values in more than two-thirds of the datasets investigated, and producing parameter estimates that allowed appropriate comparisons and noticeable trends attributed to shape. Using Akaike or Bayesian information criteria, goodness-of-fit with the mechanistic model was superior to that with Wood's equation for 1 Lie cow lactation curves, with no significant differences between models when fitted to goat or sheep lactation curves. The rate parameters of the mechanistic model, representing specific proliferation rate of mammary secretory cells at parturition, decay associated with reduction in cell proliferation capacity with time and specific death rate of mammary secretory cells, were smaller for primiparous than for multiparous cows. Greater lactation persistency of cows compared to goats and sheep, and decrease in persistency with parity, were shown to be represented by different values of the specific secretory cell death rate parameter in the mechanistic model. The plausible biological interpretation and fitting properties of the mechanistic model enable it to be used in complex models of whole-cow digestion and metabolism and as a tool in selection programmes and by dairy producers for management decisions.Canada Research Chairs ProgramPeer reviewe

Using δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 to constrain Arctic methane emissions

We present a global methane modelling study assessing the sensitivity of Arctic atmospheric CH4 mole fractions, δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 to uncertainties in Arctic methane sources. Model simulations include methane tracers tagged by source and isotopic composition and are compared with atmospheric data at four northern high-latitude measurement sites. We find the model's ability to capture the magnitude and phase of observed seasonal cycles of CH4 mixing ratios, δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 at northern high latitudes is much improved using a later spring kick-off and autumn decline in northern high-latitude wetland emissions than predicted by most process models. Results from our model simulations indicate that recent predictions of large methane emissions from thawing submarine permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf region could only be reconciled with global-scale atmospheric observations by making large adjustments to high-latitude anthropogenic or wetland emission inventories