Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which are resulting in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (ANalyses Of VAriance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of 5 climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for 9 large scale river basins across the globe, under 4 emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge – however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system

Multimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations

Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971–2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2% for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (-20% to 5%, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from -20% to 20%. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only better performances of historical simulations but also more robust and confidential future projections of hydrological changes under a changing environment

Intercomparison of global river discharge simulations focusing on dam operation --- Part II: Multiple models analysis in two case-study river basins, Missouri-Mississippi and Green-Colorado

We performed a twofold intercomparison of river discharge regulated by dams under multiple meteorological forcings among multiple global hydrological models for a historical period by simulation. Paper II provides an intercomparison of river discharge simulated by five hydrological models under four meteorological forcings. This is the first global multimodel intercomparison study on dam-regulated river flow. Although the simulations were conducted globally, the Missouri-Mississippi and Green-Colorado Rivers were chosen as case-study sites in this study. The hydrological models incorporate generic schemes of dam operation, not specific to a certain dam. We examined river discharge on a longitudinal section of river channels to investigate the effects of dams on simulated discharge, especially at the seasonal time scale. We found that the magnitude of dam regulation differed considerably among the hydrological models. The difference was attributable not only to dam operation schemes but also to the magnitude of simulated river discharge flowing into dams. That is, although a similar algorithm of dam operation schemes was incorporated in different hydrological models, the magnitude of dam regulation substantially differed among the models. Intermodel discrepancies tended to decrease toward the lower reaches of these river basins, which means model dependence is less significant toward lower reaches. These case-study results imply that, intermodel comparisons of river discharge should be made at different locations along the river’s course to critically examine the performance of hydrological models because the performance can vary with the locations

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty

Adiposity is Associated with Regional Cortical Thinning

BACKGROUND: Although obesity is associated with structural changes in brain grey matter, findings have been inconsistent and the precise nature of these changes is unclear. Inconsistencies may partly be due to the use of different volumetric morphometry methods, and the inclusion of participants with comorbidities that exert independent effects on brain structure. The latter concern is particularly critical when sample sizes are modest. The purpose of the current study was to examine the relationship between cortical grey matter and body mass index (BMI), in healthy participants, excluding confounding comorbidities and using a large sample size. SUBJECTS: A total of 202 self-reported healthy volunteers were studied using surface-based morphometry, which permits the measurement of cortical thickness, surface area and cortical folding, independent of each other. RESULTS: Although increasing BMI was not associated with global cortical changes, a more precise, region-based analysis revealed significant thinning of the cortex in two areas: left lateral occipital cortex (LOC) and right ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). An analogous region-based analysis failed to find an association between BMI and regional surface area or folding. Participants' age was also found to be negatively associated with cortical thickness of several brain regions; however, there was no overlap between the age- and BMI-related effects on cortical thinning. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that the key effect of increasing BMI on cortical grey matter is a focal thinning in the left LOC and right vmPFC. Consistent implications of the latter region in reward valuation, and goal control of decision and action suggest a possible shift in these processes with increasing BMI.We thank all the participants and the staff of the Wolfson Brain Imaging Centre. This work was supported by the Bernard Wolfe Health Neuroscience Fund (NM, HZ, ISF, PCF), the Wellcome Trust (RGAG/144 to N.M, RGAG/188 to ISF, RNAG/259 to PCF) and the Medical Research Council (G0701497 to KDE).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2016.42

The influence of local skin temperature on the sweat glands maximum ion reabsorption rate

PURPOSE: Changes in mean skin temperature (Tsk) have been shown to modify the maximum rate of sweat ion reabsorption. This study aims to extend this knowledge by investigating if modifications could also be caused by local Tsk. METHODS: The influence of local Tsk on the sweat gland maximum ion reabsorption rates was investigated in ten healthy volunteers (three female and seven male; 20.8 ± 1.2 years, 60.4 ± 7.7 kg, 169.4 ± 10.4 cm) during passive heating (water-perfused suit and lower leg water immersion). In two separate trials, in a randomized order, one forearm was always manipulated to 33 °C (Neutral), whilst the other was manipulated to either 30 °C (Cool) or 36 °C (Warm) using water-perfused patches. Oesophageal temperature (Tes), forearm Tsk, sweat rate (SR), galvanic skin conductance (GSC) and salivary aldosterone concentrations were measured. The sweat gland maximum ion reabsorption rates were identified using the ∆SR threshold for an increasing ∆GSC. RESULTS: Thermal [Tes and body temperature (Tb)] and non-thermal responses (aldosterone) were similar across all conditions (p > 0.05). A temperature-dependent response for the sweat gland maximum ion reabsorption rates was evident between 30 °C (0.18 ± 0.10 mg/cm2/min) and 36 °C (0.28 ± 0.14 mg/cm2/min, d = 0.88, p  0.05. CONCLUSION: The data indicate that small variations in local Tsk may not affect the sweat gland maximum ion reabsorption rates but when the local Tsk increases by > 6 °C, ion reabsorption rates also increase

The effects of exercise and passive heating on the sweat glands ion reabsorption rates

The sweat glands maximum ion reabsorption rates were investigated (n = 12, 21.7 ± 3.0 years, 59.4 ± 9.8 kg, 166.9 ± 10.4 cm and 47.1 ± 7.5 mL/kg/min) during two separate endogenous protocols; cycling at 30% (LEX) and 60% VO2max(MEX) and one exogenous trial; passive heating (PH) (43°C water lower leg immersion) in 27°C, 50%RH. Oesophageal temperature (Tes), skin temperature (Tsk), and forearm, chest and lower back sweat rate (SR) and galvanic skin conductance (GSC) were measured. Salivary aldosterone was measured pre-and postheating (n = 3). Using the ∆SR threshold for an increasing ∆GSC to identify maximum sweat ion reabsorption rate revealed higher reabsorption rates during MEX compared to PH (mean of all regions: 0.63 ± 0.28 vs. 0.44 ± 0.3 mg/cm2/min, P  0.05). Aldosterone increased more during MEX (72.8 ± 36.6 pg/mL) compared to PH (39.2 ± 17.5 pg/mL) and LEX (1.8 ± 9.7 pg/mL). The back had a higher threshold than the forearm (P  0.05) (mean of all conditions; 0.64 ± 0.33, 0.42 ± 0.25, 0.54 ± 0.3 mg/cm2/min, respectively). Although the differences between conditions may be influenced by thermal or nonthermal mechanism, our results indicate a possibility that the sweat glands maximum ion reabsorption rates may be different between exercise and passive heating without mediating skin regional differences

Recombinant human activated protein C attenuates cardiovascular and microcirculatory dysfunction in acute lung injury and septic shock

Introduction: This prospective, randomized, controlled, experimental animal study looks at the effects of recombinant human activated protein C (rhAPC) on global hemodynamics and microcirculation in ovine acute lung injury (ALI) and septic shock, resulting from smoke inhalation injury

Microstructure development and high tensile properties of He/H2 milled oxide dispersion strengthened copper

This study describes the effect of microstructural development on high tensile properties of a newly developed He/H2 milled oxide dispersion strengthened copper in a large centimeter sized spherical morphology. Electron back scattered diffraction showed development of a strong texture of (110) plane in micron sized (1.2 μm) grains on the surface of milled spheres. A combination of microstructural features of inhomogeneous grain size, nanoscale lenticular/rectangular deformation twins, high dislocation density and fine oxide particles distribution induced a very high ultimate tensile strength (688 MPa)-ductility (8.6% elongation)

Microstructure and mechanical properties of mechanically alloyed ODS copper alloy for fusion material application

Advanced oxide dispersion strengthened copper alloys are promising structural materials for application in divertor system of future fusion reactors due to high irradiation resistance, high thermal conductivity, and good mechanical properties. In this study, a new ODS copper including 0.42wt%Y2O3 nanosized oxide particles wasdeveloped successfully by mechanical alloying method using addition of 1 wt% Stearic acid in Ar atmosphere.Mechanical alloying resulted in decrease of crystallite size to 28 nm in concurrent with increment of dislocation density and hardness to the saturated level of × −1.7 10 m15 2 and 226HV0.1 after 48 h milling, respectively.Consolidated ODS copper by SPS and then hot roll-annealing at 900 °C/60 min showed an average grain size of 1.1 μm with a near random texture. Furthermore, TEM observations demonstrated fine semicoherent Y2O3 oxide particles distributed with a misfit parameter (δ) of 0.17 in copper matrix with an average size of 10.8 nm andinterparticle spacing of 152 nm. Finally, tensile test evaluation determined comparable mechanical properties of the annealed ODS copper (Cu-0.42wt%Y2O3) with Glidcop-Al25 including a yield strength of 272 MPa and total elongation of 12%, by two mechanisms of grain boundary strengthening and oxide particle strengthening