Designing adaptation policy trajectories

This document provides a description of the adaptation policy trajectories planned for use in the ‘Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation’ (DECCMA) model. It provides policy makers with insight into the impact of policy choices that specifically address adaptation to climate change. It explains the framework of elements that influence commitment to significant policy change and investment in adaptation policy trajectories. Interventions need to address drivers of vulnerability, disaster risk reduction, land use and ecosystem resilience. DECCMA’s geographical focus is on the Volta in Ghana, the Mahanadi in India, and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) spanning India and Bangladesh.UK’s Department for International Development (DFID

Migration and household adaptation in climate-sensitive hotspots in South Asia

This is the final version. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record. Purpose of Review: South Asia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, owing to the high dependency on climate-sensitive livelihoods and recurrent extreme events. Consequently, an increasing number of households are adopting labour migration as a livelihood strategy to diversify incomes, spread risks, and meet aspirations. Under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) initiative, four research consortia have investigated migration patterns and their inherent linkages to adaptation to climate change in climate hotspots. This article synthesizes key findings in regional context of South Asia. Recent Findings: The synthesis suggests that in climate-sensitive hotspots, migration is an important livelihood diversification strategy and a response to various risks, including climate change. Typically, one or more household members, often young men, migrated internally or internationally to work in predominantly informal sectors. Remittances helped spatially diversify household income, spread risks, and insure against external stressors. The outcomes of migration are often influenced by who moves, where to, and what capacities they possess. Summary: Migration was found to help improve household adaptive capacity, albeit in a limited capacity. Migration was mainly used as a response to risk and uncertainty, but with potential to have positive adaptation co-benefits.International Development Research Centr

Advancing climate services in South Asia

Many communities in South Asia are highly exposed and vulnerable to weather and climate hazards, and climate services play an important role in managing present and future climate risks. Here we take stock of ongoing climate service activities under the Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) Met Office Partnership programme. ARRCC aims to strengthen climate resilience in South Asia through co-producing weather and climate services, building institutional capacities, and enhancing coordination across the region and in focal countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. We identify what is working well and challenges that remain in the provision and uptake of climate services, focusing on examples of applying seasonal forecasts, sea-level rise projections, and extreme rainfall information for hydropower decisions. We demonstrate the value of building equitable and sustainable partnerships, enhancing knowledge sharing, strengthening evaluation, and approaches that combine model information within a decision-centred framework. Based on experiences in ARRCC, we find that climate information alone is often insufficient to meet decision-maker needs, and discuss the role for new climate impact services that integrate climate information with knowledge and tools on climate impacts and vulnerabilities

Exploring synergies and trade-offs among the sustainable development goals: collective action and adaptive capacity in marginal mountainous areas of India

Global environmental change (GEC) threatens to undermine the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Smallholders in marginal mountainous areas (MMA) are particularly vulnerable due to precarious livelihoods in challenging environments. Acting collectively can enable and constrain the ability of smallholders to adapt to GEC. The objectives of this paper are: (i) identify collective actions in four MMA of the central Indian Himalaya Region, each with differing institutional contexts; (ii) assess the adaptive capacity of each village by measuring livelihood capital assets, diversity, and sustainable land management practices. Engaging with adaptive capacity and collective action literatures, we identify three broad approaches to adaptive capacity relating to the SDGs: natural hazard mitigation (SDG 13), social vulnerability (SDG 1, 2 and 5), and social–ecological resilience (SDG 15). We then develop a conceptual framework to understand the institutional context and identify SDG synergies and trade-offs. Adopting a mixed method approach, we analyse the relationships between collective action and the adaptive capacity of each village, the sites where apparent trade-offs and synergies among SDGs occur. Results illustrate each village has unique socio-environmental characteristics, implying distinct development challenges, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities exist. Subsequently, specific SDG synergies and trade-offs occur even within MMA, and it is therefore crucial that institutions facilitate locally appropriate collective actions in order to achieve the SDGs. We suggest that co-production in the identification, prioritisation and potential solutions to the distinct challenges facing MMA can increase understandings of the specific dynamics and feedbacks necessary to achieve the SDGs in the context of GEC

Using qualitative and quantitative methods to choose a habitat quality metric for air pollution policy evaluation

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has had detrimental effects on species composition in a range of sensitive habitats, although N deposition can also increase agricultural productivity and carbon storage, and favours a few species considered of importance for conservation. Conservation targets are multiple, and increasingly incorporate services derived from nature as well as concepts of intrinsic value. Priorities vary. How then should changes in a set of species caused by drivers such as N deposition be assessed? We used a novel combination of qualitative semi-structured interviews and quantitative ranking to elucidate the views of conservation professionals specialising in grasslands, heathlands and mires. Although conservation management goals are varied, terrestrial habitat quality is mainly assessed by these specialists on the basis of plant species, since these are readily observed. The presence and abundance of plant species that are scarce, or have important functional roles, emerged as important criteria for judging overall habitat quality. However, species defined as ‘positive indicator-species’ (not particularly scarce, but distinctive for the habitat) were considered particularly important. Scarce species are by definition not always found, and the presence of functionally important species is not a sufficient indicator of site quality. Habitat quality as assessed by the key informants was rank-correlated with the number of positive indicator-species present at a site for seven of the nine habitat classes assessed. Other metrics such as species-richness or a metric of scarcity were inconsistently or not correlated with the specialists’ assessments. We recommend that metrics of habitat quality used to assess N pollution impacts are based on the occurrence of, or habitat-suitability for, distinctive species. Metrics of this type are likely to be widely applicable for assessing habitat change in response to different drivers. The novel combined qualitative and quantitative approach taken to elucidate the priorities of conservation professionals could be usefully applied in other contexts

A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas

Deltas are precarious environments experiencing significant biophysical, and socio-economic changes with the ebb and flow of seasons (including with floods and drought), with infrastructural developments (such as dikes and polders), with the movement of people, and as a result of climate and environmental variability and change. Decisions are being taken about the future of deltas and about the provision of adaptation investment to enable people and the environment to respond to the changing climate and related changes. The paper presents a framework to identify options for, and trade-offs between, long term adaptation strategies in deltas. Using a three step process, we: (1) identify current policy-led adaptations actions in deltas by conducting literature searches on current observable adaptations, potential transformational adaptations and government policy; (2) develop narratives of future adaptation policy directions that take into account investment cost of adaptation and the extent to which significant policy change/political effort is required; and (3) explore trade-offs that occur within each policy direction using a subjective weighting process developed during a collaborative expert workshop. We conclude that the process of developing policy directions for adaptation can assist policy makers in scoping the spectrum of options that exist, while enabling them to consider their own willingness to make significant policy changes within the delta and to initiate transformative change.</p

Enhancing resilience to coastal flooding from severe storms in the USA: international lessons

Recent events in the USA have highlighted a lack of resilience in the coastal population to coastal flooding, especially amongst disadvantaged and isolated communities. Some low-income countries, such as Cuba and Bangladesh, have made significant progress towards transformed societies that are more resilient to the impacts of cyclones and coastal flooding. To understand how this has come about, a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature related to resilience of communities to coastal flooding was undertaken in both countries. In both Cuba and Bangladesh the trust between national and local authorities, community leaders and civil society is high. As a consequence evacuation warnings are generally followed and communities are well prepared. As a result over the past 25 years in Bangladesh the number of deaths directly related to cyclones and coastal flooding has decreased, despite an increase of almost 50 % in the number of people exposed to these hazards. In Cuba, over the course of eight hurricanes between 2003 and 2011, the normalized number of deaths related to cyclones and coastal floods was an order of magnitude less than in the USA. In low-income countries, warning systems and effective shelter/evacuation systems, combined with high levels of disaster risk-reduction education and social cohesion, coupled with trust between government authorities and vulnerable communities can help to increase resilience to coastal hazards and tropical cyclones. In the USA, transferable lessons include improving communication and the awareness of the risk posed by coastal surges, mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into the education system and building trusted community networks to help isolated and disadvantaged communities, and improve community resilience

Are there lessons that can be learnt from Bangladesh and Cuba that can increase American coastal communities’ resilience to flooding?

Over the past decade, the US Gulf Coast has been hit by a series of major hurricanes, including Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Ike and Sandy which have led to coastal flooding and fatalities, as well as significant economic losses. In the USA over the past 60 years the disparity between the rich and poor has increased, with the poorest people becoming increasing physically and socially isolated. These isolated households often have limited social networks to call upon in times of emergency reducing their resilience to natural hazards such as coastal floods. In many coastal states, such as Florida and Georgia, it is expected that coastal populations will have increased by up to 20% by 2020. This increase, which will mainly comprise people of retirement age, coupled with increasing sea-levels, will make American coastal communities increasingly vulnerable to coastal flood events. Some states, such as Georgia, have not experienced an extreme coastal surge for more than 100 years. A recent survey found that less than one quarter of Georgians living on the coast were very concerned about hurricanes and many people living in low lying areas did not believe their homes could flood. Despite their relative lack of resources the resilience of communities to coastal floods in Cuba and Bangladesh has increased via a range of measures including: improving the comprehensibility and effectiveness of warnings; building social capital; increasing the levels of trust in organisations responsible for issuing warnings and coordinating the emergency response; and methods of providing education in disaster risk reduction at primary through to tertiary level institutions. Despite financial challenges, both Cuba and Bangladesh have made significant progress in reducing deaths, as well as ensuring that people are able to maintain their livelihoods following tropical cyclones and coastal flood events. This paper looks at how the resilience of disadvantaged and isolated American coastal communities to floods could be increased based on the success of strategies and measures employed in Bangladesh and Cuba, where governments face significant financial constraints in providing infrastructure to protect populations from severe storms. Between 2003 and 2011, there were almost 20 times fewer deaths per million people at risk in in Cuba than in the USA as a result of hurricanes and coastal floods and in Bangladesh the number of fatalities from cyclones has reduced by two orders of magnitude over the past 25 years. This paper will investigate if the lessons learnt in Bangladesh and Cuba can be applied in the USA. It will also discuss why there needs to be a recognition of the importance of social capital and community self-sufficiency and how these can be encouraged and measures can be designed to leverage it in the context of future coastal flood events