Evidential-EM Algorithm Applied to Progressively Censored Observations

Evidential-EM (E2M) algorithm is an effective approach for computing maximum likelihood estimations under finite mixture models, especially when there is uncertain information about data. In this paper we present an extension of the E2M method in a particular case of incom-plete data, where the loss of information is due to both mixture models and censored observations. The prior uncertain information is expressed by belief functions, while the pseudo-likelihood function is derived based on imprecise observations and prior knowledge. Then E2M method is evoked to maximize the generalized likelihood function to obtain the optimal estimation of parameters. Numerical examples show that the proposed method could effectively integrate the uncertain prior infor-mation with the current imprecise knowledge conveyed by the observed data

Hydro-chemical modelling of in situ behaviour of bituminized radioactive waste in Boom Clay

The hydro-chemical (CH) interaction between swelling Eurobitum bituminized radioactive waste (BW) and Boom Clay was investigated to assess the feasibility of geological disposal for the long-term management of this waste. First, the long-term behaviour of BW in contact with water was studied. A CH formulation of chemically and hydraulically coupled flow processes in porous materials containing salt crystals is discussed. The formulation incorporates the strong dependence of the osmotic efficiency of the bitumen membrane on porosity and assumes the existence of high salt concentration gradients that are maintained for a long time and that influence the density and motion of the fluid. The impacts of temporal and spatial variations of key transport parameters (i.e. osmotic efficiency (s), intrinsic permeability (k), diffusion, etc.) were investigated. Porosity was considered the basic variable. For BW porosity varies in time because of the water uptake and subsequent processes (i.e. dissolution of salt crystals, swelling of hydrating layers, compression of highly leached layers). New expressions of s and k describing the dependence of these parameters on porosity are proposed. Several cases were analysed. The numerical analysis was proven to be able to furnish a satisfactory representation of the main observed patterns of the behaviour in terms of osmotic-induced swelling, leached mass of NaNO3 and progression of the hydration front when heterogeneous porosity and crystal distributions have been assumed. Second, the long-term behaviour of real Eurobitum drums in disposal conditions, and in particular its interaction with the surrounding clay, was investigated. Results of a CH analysis are presented.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Plasma Diffusion in Self-Consistent Fluctuations

The problem of particle diffusion in position space, as a consequence ofeleclromagnetic fluctuations is addressed. Numerical results obtained with a self-consistent hybrid code are presented, and a method to calculate diffusion coefficient in the direction perpendicular to the mean magnetic field is proposed. The diffusion is estimated for two different types of fluctuations. The first type (resuiting from an agyrotropic in itiai setting)is stationary, wide band white noise, and associated to Gaussian probability distribution function for the magnetic fluctuations. The second type (result ing from a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability) is non-stationary, with a power-law spectrum, and a non-Gaussian probabi lity distribution function. The results of the study allow revisiting the question of loading particles of solar wind origin in the Earth magnetosphere

Diversification of myco-heterotrophic angiosperms: evidence from Burmanniaceae.

Background - Myco-heterotrophy evolved independently several times during angiosperm evolution. Although many species of myco-heterotrophic plants are highly endemic and long-distance dispersal seems unlikely, some genera are widely dispersed and have pantropical distributions, often with large disjunctions. Traditionally this has been interpreted as evidence for an old age of these taxa. However, due to their scarcity and highly reduced plastid genomes our understanding about the evolutionary histories of the angiosperm myco-heterotrophic groups is poor. Results - We provide a hypothesis for the diversification of the myco-heterotrophic family Burmanniaceae. Phylogenetic inference, combined with biogeographical analyses, molecular divergence time estimates, and diversification analyses suggest that Burmanniaceae originated in West Gondwana and started to diversify during the Late Cretaceous. Diversification and migration of the species-rich pantropical genera Burmannia and Gymnosiphon display congruent patterns. Diversification began during the Eocene, when global temperatures peaked and tropical forests occurred at low latitudes. Simultaneous migration from the New to the Old World in Burmannia and Gymnosiphon occurred via boreotropical migration routes. Subsequent Oligocene cooling and breakup of boreotropical flora ended New-Old World migration and caused a gradual decrease in diversification rate in Burmanniaceae. Conclusion - Our results indicate that extant diversity and pantropical distribution of myco-heterotrophic Burmanniaceae is the result of diversification and boreotropical migration during the Eocene when tropical rain forest expanded dramaticall

What determines the suspension of budget support?

Although Budget Support (BS) was not designed to push political reform in recipient countries, donors have nonetheless used it to sanction democratic regress. An econometric analysis of all BS suspensions by bilateral donors in the period 2000–11 finds that suspensions effectively do reflect downward tendencies in voice and accountability, and in level of democratic functioning. The larger the in-country BS donor group, the more suspensions. Interestingly, ideological alignment between donor and recipient and aid dependence decrease the likelihood for suspensions, while domestic donor economic growth increases it; and multilateral suspensions have the largest positive effect of all

Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates inter-studies comparisons. However, it is clear that the presence and activity of pesticide degraders is often highly spatially variable with coefficients of variation often exceeding 50% and frequently displays nonrandom spatial patterns. A few controlling factors have tentatively been identified across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH) and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage), while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance of spatial heterogeneity on the fate of pesticides in soil has been difficult to obtain but modelling and experimental systems that do not include soil’s full complexity reveal that this heterogeneity must be considered to improve prediction of pesticide biodegradation rates or of leaching risks. Overall, studying the spatial heterogeneity of pesticide biodegradation is a relatively new field at the interface of agronomy, microbial ecology, and geosciences and a wealth of novel data is being collected from these different disciplinary perspectives. We make suggestions on possible avenues to take full advantage of these investigations for a better understanding and prediction of the fate of pesticides in soil