Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario

Risk factors and molecular entities of the etiopathogenesis of the knee osteoarthritis (literature review)

The literature review allowed us to identify the molecular mechanisms of etiopathogenesis of knee osteoarthritis and the major risk factors for the patholog

Quality Management System in Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute

The analysis of the structure of quality management system and the areas of its activity is presented. Trends for its further improvement are defined

Validation of Technological Process of Production of Liquid Brucellosis Diagnosticum for Agglutination Reaction, Suspension for Diagnostic Purposes

Presented are the results of validation of technological process of production of brucellosis diagnosticu

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound and Respiratory CO2 Emissions after 13C-Labeling: Online Tracing of C Translocation Dynamics in Poplar Plants

Globally plants are the primary sink of atmospheric CO(2), but are also the major contributor of a large spectrum of atmospheric reactive hydrocarbons such as terpenes (e.g. isoprene) and other biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC). The prediction of plant carbon (C) uptake and atmospheric oxidation capacity are crucial to define the trajectory and consequences of global environmental changes. To achieve this, the biosynthesis of BVOC and the dynamics of C allocation and translocation in both plants and ecosystems are important.We combined tunable diode laser absorption spectrometry (TDLAS) and proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS) for studying isoprene biosynthesis and following C fluxes within grey poplar (Populus x canescens) saplings. This was achieved by feeding either (13)CO(2) to leaves or (13)C-glucose to shoots via xylem uptake. The translocation of (13)CO(2) from the source to other plant parts could be traced by (13)C-labeled isoprene and respiratory (13)CO(2) emission.In intact plants, assimilated (13)CO(2) was rapidly translocated via the phloem to the roots within 1 hour, with an average phloem transport velocity of 20.3±2.5 cm h(-1). (13)C label was stored in the roots and partially reallocated to the plants' apical part one day after labeling, particularly in the absence of photosynthesis. The daily C loss as BVOC ranged between 1.6% in mature leaves and 7.0% in young leaves. Non-isoprene BVOC accounted under light conditions for half of the BVOC C loss in young leaves and one-third in mature leaves. The C loss as isoprene originated mainly (76-78%) from recently fixed CO(2), to a minor extent from xylem-transported sugars (7-11%) and from photosynthetic intermediates with slower turnover rates (8-11%).We quantified the plants' C loss as respiratory CO(2) and BVOC emissions, allowing in tandem with metabolic analysis to deepen our understanding of ecosystem C flux

Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.Comment: 44 pages; 19 figures; Final text accepted by Climate Dynamic