Individual Variation in Influenza A Virus Infection Histories and Long-Term Immune Responses in Mallards

Abstract Wild dabbling ducks (genus Anas) are the main reservoir for influenza A virus (IAV) in the Northern Hemisphere. Current understanding of disease dynamics and epidemiology in this virus-host system has primarily been based on populationlevel surveillance studies and infection experiments conducted in laboratory settings. Using a combined experimentalnatural approach with wild-strain captive mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), we monitored individual IAV infection histories and immunological responses of 10 birds over the course of 15 months. This is the first detailed study to track natural IAV infection histories over several seasons amongst the same individuals growing from juvenile to adults. The general trends in the infection histories of the monitored birds reflected seasonal variation in prevalence at the population level. However, within the study group there were significant differences between individuals in infection frequency as well as in short and long term anti-IAV antibody response. Further observations included individual variation in the number of infecting virus subtypes, and a strong tendency for long-lasting hemagglutinin-related homosubtypic immunity. Specifically, all infections in the second autumn, except one, were of different subtypes compared to the first autumn. The variation among birds concerning these epidemiologically important traits illustrates the necessity for IAV studies to move from the level of populations to examine individuals in order to further our understanding of IAV disease and epidemiology

Sampling strategies and biodiversity of influenza A subtypes in wild birds

Wild aquatic birds are recognized as the natural reservoir of avian influenza A viruses (AIV), but across high and low pathogenic AIV strains, scientists have yet to rigorously identify most competent hosts for the various subtypes. We examined 11,870 GenBank records to provide a baseline inventory and insight into patterns of global AIV subtype diversity and richness. Further, we conducted an extensive literature review and communicated directly with scientists to accumulate data from 50 non-overlapping studies and over 250,000 birds to assess the status of historic sampling effort. We then built virus subtype sample-based accumulation curves to better estimate sample size targets that capture a specific percentage of virus subtype richness at seven sampling locations. Our study identifies a sampling methodology that will detect an estimated 75% of circulating virus subtypes from a targeted bird population and outlines future surveillance and research priorities that are needed to explore the influence of host and virus biodiversity on emergence and transmission

Ecology of the collapse of Rapa Nui society

Collapses of food producer societies are recurrent events in prehistory and have triggered a growing concern for identifying the underlying causes of convergences/divergences across cultures around the world. One of the most studied and used as a paradigmatic case is the population collapse of the Rapa Nui society. Here, we test different hypotheses about it by developing explicit population dynamic models that integrate feedbacks between climatic, demographic and ecological factors that underpinned the sociocultural trajectory of these people. We evaluate our model outputs against a reconstruction of past population size based on archaeological radiocarbon dates from the island. The resulting estimated demographic declines of the Rapa Nui people are linked to the long-term effects of climate change on the island's carrying capacity and, in turn, on the 'per-capita food supply'

Heterosubtypic Immunity to Influenza A Virus Infections in Mallards May Explain Existence of Multiple Virus Subtypes

Wild birds, particularly duck species, are the main reservoir of influenza A virus (IAV) in nature. However, knowledge of IAV infection dynamics in the wild bird reservoir, and the development of immune responses, are essentially absent. Importantly, a detailed understanding of how subtype diversity is generated and maintained is lacking. To address this, 18,679 samples from 7728 Mallard ducks captured between 2002 and 2009 at a single stopover site in Sweden were screened for IAV infections, and the resulting 1081 virus isolates were analyzed for patterns of immunity. We found support for development of homosubtypic hemagglutinin (HA) immunity during the peak of IAV infections in the fall. Moreover, re-infections with the same HA subtype and related prevalent HA subtypes were uncommon, suggesting the development of natural homosubtypic and heterosubtypic immunity (p-value = 0.02). Heterosubtypic immunity followed phylogenetic relatedness of HA subtypes, both at the level of HA clades (p-value = 0.04) and the level of HA groups (p-value = 0.05). In contrast, infection patterns did not support specific immunity for neuraminidase (NA) subtypes. For the H1 and H3 Clades, heterosubtypic immunity showed a clear temporal pattern and we estimated within-clade immunity to last at least 30 days. The strength and duration of heterosubtypic immunity has important implications for tran

Environmental Levels of the Antiviral Oseltamivir Induce Development of Resistance Mutation H274Y in Influenza A/H1N1 Virus in Mallards

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) is the most widely used drug against influenza infections and is extensively stockpiled worldwide as part of pandemic preparedness plans. However, resistance is a growing problem and in 2008–2009, seasonal human influenza A/H1N1 virus strains in most parts of the world carried the mutation H274Y in the neuraminidase gene which causes resistance to the drug. The active metabolite of oseltamivir, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), is poorly degraded in sewage treatment plants and surface water and has been detected in aquatic environments where the natural influenza reservoir, dabbling ducks, can be exposed to the substance. To assess if resistance can develop under these circumstances, we infected mallards with influenza A/H1N1 virus and exposed the birds to 80 ng/L, 1 µg/L and 80 µg/L of OC through their sole water source. By sequencing the neuraminidase gene from fecal samples, we found that H274Y occurred at 1 µg/L of OC and rapidly dominated the viral population at 80 µg/L. IC50 for OC was increased from 2–4 nM in wild-type viruses to 400–700 nM in H274Y mutants as measured by a neuraminidase inhibition assay. This is consistent with the decrease in sensitivity to OC that has been noted among human clinical isolates carrying H274Y. Environmental OC levels have been measured to 58–293 ng/L during seasonal outbreaks and are expected to reach µg/L-levels during pandemics. Thus, resistance could be induced in influenza viruses circulating among wild ducks. As influenza viruses can cross species barriers, oseltamivir resistance could spread to human-adapted strains with pandemic potential disabling oseltamivir, a cornerstone in pandemic preparedness planning. We propose surveillance in wild birds as a measure to understand the resistance situation in nature and to monitor it over time. Strategies to lower environmental levels of OC include improved sewage treatment and, more importantly, a prudent use of antivirals

Molecular identification of papillomavirus in ducks

Papillomaviruses infect many vertebrates, including birds. Persistent infections by some strains can cause malignant proliferation of cells (i.e. cancer), though more typically infections cause benign tumours, or may be completely subclinical. Sometimes extensive, persistent tumours are recorded– notably in chaffinches and humans. In 2016, a novel papillomavirus genotype was characterized from a duck faecal microbiome, in Bhopal, India; the sixth papillomavirus genotype from birds. Prompted by this finding, we screened 160 cloacal swabs and 968 faecal samples collected from 299 ducks sampled at Ottenby Bird Observatory, Sweden in 2015, using a newly designed real-time PCR. Twenty one samples (1.9%) from six individuals (2%) were positive. Eighteen sequences were identical to the published genotype, duck papillomavirus 1. One additional novel genotype was recovered from three samples. Both genotypes were recovered from a wild strain domestic mallard that was infected for more than 60 days with each genotype. All positive individuals were adult (P = 0.004). Significantly more positive samples were detected from swabs than faecal samples (P < 0.0001). Sample type data suggests transmission may be via direct contact, and only infrequently, via the oral-faecal route. Infection in only adult birds supports the hypothesis that this virus is sexually transmitted, though more work is required to verify this.Thanks to duck trappers at Ottenby Bird Observatory for support and sample collection, and to Abbtesaim Jawad for DNA extraction. This work was supported by the Crafoord Foundation Sweden (grants number 20160971 and 20170671). This is contribution no. 306 from Ottenby Bird Observatory

Disease Dynamics and Bird Migration—Linking Mallards Anas platyrhynchos and Subtype Diversity of the Influenza A Virus in Time and Space

The mallard Anas platyrhynchos is a reservoir species for influenza A virus in the northern hemisphere, with particularly high prevalence rates prior to as well as during its prolonged autumn migration. It has been proposed that the virus is brought from the breeding grounds and transmitted to conspecifics during subsequent staging during migration, and so a better understanding of the natal origin of staging ducks is vital to deciphering the dynamics of viral movement pathways. Ottenby is an important stopover site in southeast Sweden almost halfway downstream in the major Northwest European flyway, and is used by millions of waterfowl each year. Here, mallards were captured and sampled for influenza A virus infection, and positive samples were subtyped in order to study possible links to the natal area, which were determined by a novel approach combining banding recovery data and isotopic measurements (δ2H) of feathers grown on breeding grounds. Geographic assignments showed that the core natal areas of studied mallards were in Estonia, southern and central Finland, and northwestern Russia. This study demonstrates a clear temporal succession of latitudes of natal origin during the course of autumn migration. We also demonstrate a corresponding and concomitant shift in virus subtypes. Acknowledging that these two different patterns were based in part upon different data, a likely interpretation worth further testing is that the early arriving birds with more proximate origins have different influenza A subtypes than the more distantly originating late autumn birds. If true, this knowledge would allow novel insight into the origins and transmission of the influenza A virus among migratory hosts previously unavailable through conventional approaches

Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations

Wild waterfowl populations form a natural reservoir of Avian Influenza (AI) virus, and fears exist that these birds may contribute to an AI pandemic by spreading the virus along their migratory flyways. Observational studies suggest that individuals infected with AI virus may delay departure from migratory staging sites. Here, we explore the epidemiological dynamics of avian influenza virus in a migrating mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population with a specific view to understanding the role of infection-induced migration delays on the spread of virus strains of differing transmissibility. We develop a host-pathogen model that combines the transmission dynamics of influenza with the migration, reproduction and mortality of the host bird species. Our modeling predicts that delayed migration of individuals influences both the timing and size of outbreaks of AI virus. We find that (1) delayed migration leads to a lower total number of cases of infection each year than in the absence of migration delay, (2) when the transmission rate of a strain is high, the outbreak starts at the staging sites at which birds arrive in the early part of the fall migration, (3) when the transmission rate is low, infection predominantly occurs later in the season, which is further delayed when there is a migration delay. As such, the rise of more virulent AI strains in waterfowl could lead to a higher prevalence of infection later in the year, which could change the exposure risk for farmed poultry. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of generation time and loss of immunity for the effect of migration delays. Thus, we demonstrate, in contrast to many current transmission risk models solely using empirical information on bird movements to assess the potential for transmission, that a consideration of infection-induced delays is critical to understanding the dynamics of AI infection along the entire flyway.<br /

Transmission of Avian Influenza A Viruses among Species in an Artificial Barnyard

Waterfowl and shorebirds harbor and shed all hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes of influenza A viruses and interact in nature with a broad range of other avian and mammalian species to which they might transmit such viruses. Estimating the efficiency and importance of such cross-species transmission using epidemiological approaches is difficult. We therefore addressed this question by studying transmission of low pathogenic H5 and H7 viruses from infected ducks to other common animals in a quasi-natural laboratory environment designed to mimic a common barnyard. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) recently infected with H5N2 or H7N3 viruses were introduced into a room housing other mallards plus chickens, blackbirds, rats and pigeons, and transmission was assessed by monitoring virus shedding (ducks) or seroconversion (other species) over the following 4 weeks. Additional animals of each species were directly inoculated with virus to characterize the effect of a known exposure. In both barnyard experiments, virus accumulated to high titers in the shared water pool. The H5N2 virus was transmitted from infected ducks to other ducks and chickens in the room either directly or through environmental contamination, but not to rats or blackbirds. Ducks infected with the H7N2 virus transmitted directly or indirectly to all other species present. Chickens and blackbirds directly inoculated with these viruses shed significant amounts of virus and seroconverted; rats and pigeons developed antiviral antibodies, but, except for one pigeon, failed to shed virus

Spatial and Temporal Association of Outbreaks of H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection in Wild Birds with the 0°C Isotherm

Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006. Waterbirds are constrained in winter to areas where bodies of water remain unfrozen in order to feed. On the one hand, waterbirds may choose to winter as close as possible to their breeding grounds in order to conserve energy for subsequent reproduction, and may be displaced by cold fronts. On the other hand, waterbirds may choose to winter in regions where adverse weather conditions are rare, and may be slowed by cold fronts upon their journey back to the breeding grounds, which typically starts before the end of winter. Waterbirds will thus tend to aggregate along cold fronts close to the 0°C isotherm during winter, creating conditions that favour HPAIV H5N1 transmission and spread. We determined that the occurrence of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in waterbirds in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006 was associated with temperatures close to 0°C. The analysis suggests a significant spatial and temporal association of outbreaks caused by HPAIV H5N1 in wild birds with maximum surface air temperatures of 0°C–2°C on the day of the outbreaks and the two preceding days. At locations where waterbird census data have been collected since 1990, maximum mallard counts occurred when average and maximum surface air temperatures were 0°C and 3°C, respectively. Overall, the abundance of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and common pochards (Aythya ferina) was highest when surface air temperatures were lower than the mean temperatures of the region investigated. The analysis implies that waterbird movements associated with cold weather, and congregation of waterbirds along the 0°C isotherm likely contributed to the spread and geographical distribution of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in wild birds in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006