Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks

We present an approximated maximum likelihood method for the multifractal random walk processes of [E. Bacry et al., Phys. Rev. E 64, 026103 (2001)]. The likelihood is computed using a Laplace approximation and a truncation in the dependency structure for the latent volatility. The procedure is implemented as a package in the R computer language. Its performance is tested on synthetic data and compared to an inference approach based on the generalized method of moments. The method is applied to estimate parameters for various financial stock indices.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 2 table

Doing good by doing nothing? The role of social norms in explaining default effects in altruistic contexts

We explore whether the known preference for default options in choice contexts—default effects—occur in altruistic contexts and the extent to which this can be explained through appeal to social norms. In four experiments, we found that (i) participants were more likely to donate money to charity when this was the default option in an altruistic choice context; (ii) participants perceived the default option to be the socially normative option; (iii) perceptions of social norms mediated the relationship between default status and charitable donations; and (iv) a transfer effect, whereby participants translated social norms they inferred from the default option in one domain into behavior in a second, related domain. Theoretically, our analysis situates default effects within a comprehensive body of social psychological research concerning social norms and the attitude‐behavior relationship, providing novel empirical predictions. Practically, these findings highlight that the way donation policies are framed can have an important impact on donation behavior: in our third study, we found that 81% donated half of their earnings for taking part in the experiment to charity when this was the default option, compared with only 19% when keeping the money was the default. Our work suggests that making use of default effects could be an effective tool to increase altruistic behavior without compromising freedo

Concern for others leads to vicarious optimism

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people’s futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself

Modelling CO emission from Mira's wind

We have modelled the circumstellar envelope of {\it o} Ceti (Mira) using new observational constraints. These are obtained from photospheric light scattered in near-IR vibrational-rotational lines of circumstellar CO molecules at 4.6 micron: absolute fluxes, the radial dependence of the scattered intensity, and two line ratios. Further observational constraints are provided by ISO observations of far-IR emission lines from highly excited rotational states of the ground vibrational state of CO, and radio observations of lines from rotational levels of low excitation of CO. A code based on the Monte-Carlo technique is used to model the circumstellar line emission. We find that it is possible to model the radio and ISO fluxes, as well as the highly asymmetric radio-line profiles, reasonably well with a spherically symmetric and smooth stellar wind model. However, it is not possible to reproduce the observed NIR line fluxes consistently with a `standard model' of the stellar wind. This is probably due to incorrectly specified conditions of the inner regions of the wind model, since the stellar flux needs to be larger than what is obtained from the standard model at the point of scattering, i.e., the intermediate regions at approximately 100-400 stellar radii (2"-7") away from the star. Thus, the optical depth in the vibrational-rotational lines from the star to the point of scattering has to be decreased. This can be accomplished in several ways. For instance, the gas close to the star (within approximately 2") could be in such a form that light is able to pass through, either due to the medium being clumpy or by the matter being in radial structures (which, further out, developes into more smooth or shell-like structures).Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Complex organics in IRAS 4A revisited with ALMA and PdBI: Striking contrast between two neighbouring protostellar cores

We used the Atacama Large (sub-)Millimeter Array (ALMA) and the IRAM Plateau de Bure Interferometer (PdBI) to image, with an angular resolution of 0.5$''$ (120 au) and 1$''$ (235 au), respectively, the emission from 11 different organic molecules in the protostellar binary NGC1333 IRAS 4A. We clearly disentangled A1 and A2, the two protostellar cores present. For the first time, we were able to derive the column densities and fractional abundances simultaneously for the two objects, allowing us to analyse the chemical differences between them. Molecular emission from organic molecules is concentrated exclusively in A2 even though A1 is the strongest continuum emitter. The protostellar core A2 displays typical hot corino abundances and its deconvolved size is 70 au. In contrast, the upper limits we placed on molecular abundances for A1 are extremely low, lying about one order of magnitude below prestellar values. The difference in the amount of organic molecules present in A1 and A2 ranges between one and two orders of magnitude. Our results suggest that the optical depth of dust emission at these wavelengths is unlikely to be sufficiently high to completely hide a hot corino in A1 similar in size to that in A2. Thus, the significant contrast in molecular richness found between the two sources is most probably real. We estimate that the size of a hypothetical hot corino in A1 should be less than 12 au. Our results favour a scenario in which the protostar in A2 is either more massive and/or subject to a higher accretion rate than A1, as a result of inhomogeneous fragmentation of the parental molecular clump. This naturally explains the smaller current envelope mass in A2 with respect to A1 along with its molecular richness.Comment: Accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysic

The census of interstellar complex organic molecules in the Class I hot corino of SVS13-A

We present the first census of the interstellar Complex Organic Molecules (iCOMs) in the low-mass Class I protostar SVS13-A, obtained by analysing data from the IRAM-30m Large Project ASAI (Astrochemical Surveys At IRAM). They consist of an high-sensitivity unbiased spectral survey at the 1mm, 2mm and 3mm IRAM bands. We detected five iCOMs: acetaldehyde (CH$_3$CHO), methyl formate (HCOOCH$_3$), dimethyl ether (CH$_3$OCH$_3$), ethanol (CH$_3$CH$_2$OH) and formamide (NH$_2$CHO). In addition we searched for other iCOMs and ketene (H$_2$CCO), formic acid (HCOOH) and methoxy (CH$_3$O), whose only ketene was detected. The numerous detected lines, from 5 to 37 depending on the species, cover a large upper level energy range, between 15 and 254 K. This allowed us to carry out a rotational diagram analysis and derive rotational temperatures between 35 and 110 K, and column densities between $3\times 10^{15}$ and $1\times 10^{17}$ cm$^{-2}$ on the 0."3 size previously determined by interferometric observations of glycolaldehyde. These new observations clearly demonstrate the presence of a rich chemistry in the hot corino towards SVS13-A. The measured iCOMs abundances were compared to other Class 0 and I hot corinos, as well as comets, previously published in the literature. We find evidence that (i) SVS13-A is as chemically rich as younger Class 0 protostars, and (ii) the iCOMs relative abundances do not substantially evolve during the protostellar phase.Comment: 24 pages, MNRAS in pres

Discovery of SiCSi in IRC+10216: A missing link between gas and dust carriers of SiC bonds

We report the discovery in space of a disilicon species, SiCSi, from observations between 80 and 350 GHz with the IRAM 30m radio telescope. Owing to the close coordination between laboratory experiments and astrophysics, 112 lines have now been detected in the carbon-rich star CWLeo. The derived frequencies yield improved rotational and centrifugal distortion constants up to sixth order. From the line profiles and interferometric maps with the Submillimeter Array, the bulk of the SiCSi emis- sion arises from a region of 6 arcseconds in radius. The derived abundance is comparable to that of SiC2. As expected from chemical equilibrium calculations, SiCSi and SiC2 are the most abundant species harboring a SiC bond in the dust formation zone and certainly both play a key role in the formation of SiC dust grains.Comment: To be published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters; Accepted May 6 201

Levy stable distributions via associated integral transform

We present a method of generation of exact and explicit forms of one-sided, heavy-tailed Levy stable probability distributions g_{\alpha}(x), 0 \leq x < \infty, 0 < \alpha < 1. We demonstrate that the knowledge of one such a distribution g_{\alpha}(x) suffices to obtain exactly g_{\alpha^{p}}(x), p=2, 3,... Similarly, from known g_{\alpha}(x) and g_{\beta}(x), 0 < \alpha, \beta < 1, we obtain g_{\alpha \beta}(x). The method is based on the construction of the integral operator, called Levy transform, which implements the above operations. For \alpha rational, \alpha = l/k with l < k, we reproduce in this manner many of the recently obtained exact results for g_{l/k}(x). This approach can be also recast as an application of the Efros theorem for generalized Laplace convolutions. It relies solely on efficient definite integration.Comment: 12 pages, typos removed, references adde

Redshifted formaldehyde from the gravitational lens B0218+357

The gravitational lens toward B0218+357 offers the unique possibility to study cool moderately dense gas with high sensitivity and angular resolution in a cloud that existed half a Hubble time ago. Observations of the radio continuum and six formaldehyde (H2CO) lines were carried out with the VLA, the Plateau de Bure interferometer, and the Effelsberg 100-m telescope. Three radio continuum maps indicate a flux density ratio between the two main images, A and B, of ~ 3.4 +/- 0.2. Within the errors the ratio is the same at 8.6, 14.1, and 43 GHz. The 1_{01}-0_{00} line of para-H2CO is shown to absorb the continuum of image A. Large Velocity Gradient radiative transfer calculations are performed to reproduce the optical depths of the observed two cm-wave "K-doublet" and four mm-wave rotational lines. These calculations also account for a likely frequency-dependent continuum cloud coverage. Confirming the diffuse nature of the cloud, an n(H2) density of < 1000 cm^{-3} is derived, with the best fit suggesting n(H2) ~ 200 cm^{-3}. The H2CO column density of the main velocity component is ~5 * 10^{13} cm^{-2}, to which about 7.5 * 10^{12} cm^{-2} has to be added to also account for a weaker feature on the blue side, 13 km/s apart. N(H2CO)/N(NH3) ~ 0.6, which is four times less than the average ratio obtained from a small number of local diffuse (galactic) clouds seen in absorption. The ortho-to-para H2CO abundance ratio is 2.0 - 3.0, which is consistent with the kinetic temperature of the molecular gas associated with the lens of B0218+357. With the gas kinetic temperature and density known, it is found that optically thin transitions of CS, HCN, HNC, HCO+, and N2H+ (but not CO) will provide excellent probes of the cosmic microwave background at redshift z=0.68.Comment: Accepted for A&A, 8 Pages, 3 Figures, 5 Table