Laplace's rule of succession in information geometry

Laplace's "add-one" rule of succession modifies the observed frequencies in a sequence of heads and tails by adding one to the observed counts. This improves prediction by avoiding zero probabilities and corresponds to a uniform Bayesian prior on the parameter. The canonical Jeffreys prior corresponds to the "add-one-half" rule. We prove that, for exponential families of distributions, such Bayesian predictors can be approximated by taking the average of the maximum likelihood predictor and the \emph{sequential normalized maximum likelihood} predictor from information theory. Thus in this case it is possible to approximate Bayesian predictors without the cost of integrating or sampling in parameter space

Fast rates for unbounded losses: from ERM to generalized bayes

Analysis and Stochastic

Transplantation of progenitor cells and regeneration enhancement in acute myocardial infarction - (TOPCARE-AMI)

Background - Experimental studies suggest that transplantation of blood-derived or bone marrow–derived progenitor cells beneficially affects postinfarction remodeling. The safety and feasibility of autologous progenitor cell transplantation in patients with ischemic heart disease is unknown

Interamna lirenas and its territory (comune di pignataro interamna, provincia di frosinone, Regione Lazio)

Interim report on excavations 201

Characterizing ecosystem-atmosphere interactions from short to interannual time scales

International audienceCharacterizing ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in terms of carbon and water exchange on different time scales is considered a major challenge in terrestrial biogeochemical cycle research. The respective time series currently comprise an observation period of up to one decade. In this study, we explored whether the observation period is already sufficient to detect cross-relationships between the variables beyond the annual cycle, as they are expected from comparable studies in climatology. We investigated the potential of Singular System Analysis (SSA) to extract arbitrary kinds of oscillatory patterns. The method is completely data adaptive and performs an effective signal to noise separation. We found that most observations (Net Ecosystem Exchange, NEE, Gross Primary Productivity, GPP, Ecosystem Respiration, Reco, Vapor Pressure Deficit, VPD, Latent Heat, LE, Sensible Heat, H, Wind Speed, u, and Precipitation, P) were influenced significantly by low-frequency components (interannual variability). Furthermore, we extracted a set of nontrivial relationships and found clear seasonal hysteresis effects except for the interrelation of NEE with Global Radiation (Rg). SSA provides a new tool for the investigation of these phenomena explicitly on different time scales. Furthermore, we showed that SSA has great potential for eddy covariance data processing, since it can be applied as a novel gap filling approach relying on the temporal correlation structure of the time series structure only

Insights into evolving global populations of Phytophthora infestans via new complementary mtDNA haplotype markers and nuclear SSRs

<div><p>In many parts of the world the damaging potato late blight pathogen, <i>Phytophthora infestans</i>, is spread as a succession of clonal lineages. The discrimination of genetic diversity within such evolving populations provides insights into the processes generating novel lineages and the pathways and drivers of pathogen evolution and dissemination at local and global scales. This knowledge, in turn, helps optimise management practices. Here we combine two key methods for dissecting mitochondrial and nuclear diversity and resolve intra and inter-lineage diversity of over 100 <i>P</i>. <i>infestans</i> isolates representative of key clonal lineages found globally. A novel set of PCR primers that amplify five target regions are provided for mitochondrial DNA sequence analysis. These five loci increased the number of mtDNA haplotypes resolved from four with the PCR RFLP method to 37 (17, 6, 8 and 4 for Ia, Ib, IIa, and IIb haplotypes, respectively, plus 2 Herb-1 haplotypes). As with the PCR RFLP method, two main lineages, I and II were defined. Group I contained 25 mtDNA haplotypes that grouped broadly according to the Ia and Ib types and resolved several sub-clades amongst the global sample. Group II comprised two distinct clusters with four haplotypes corresponding to the RFLP type IIb and eight haplotypes resolved within type IIa. The 12-plex SSR assay revealed 90 multilocus genotypes providing accurate discrimination of dominant clonal lineages and other genetically diverse isolates. Some association of genetic diversity and geographic region of contemporary isolates was observed; US and Mexican isolates formed a loose grouping, distinct from isolates from Europe, South America and other regions. Diversity within clonal lineages was observed that varied according to the age of the clone. In combination, these fine-scale nuclear and maternally inherited mitochondrial markers enabled a greater level of discrimination among isolates than previously available and provided complementary perspectives on evolutionary questions relating to the diversity, phylogeography and the origins and spread of clonal lineages of <i>P</i>. <i>infestans</i>.</p></div

On Coupling FCA and MDL in Pattern Mining

International audiencePattern Mining is a well-studied field in Data Mining and Machine Learning. The modern methods are based on dynamically updating models, among which MDL-based ones ensure high-quality pattern sets. Formal concepts also characterize patterns in a condensed form. In this paper we study MDL-based algorithm called Krimp in FCA settings and propose a modified version that benefits from FCA and relies on probabilistic assumptions that underlie MDL. We provide an experimental proof that the proposed approach improves quality of pattern sets generated by Krimp

The role of trust and hope in antipsychotic medication reviews between GPs and service users a realist review

Abstract Background Increasing number of service users diagnosed with schizophrenia and psychosis are being discharged from specialist secondary care services to primary care, many of whom are prescribed long-term antipsychotics. It is unclear if General Practitioners (GPs) have the confidence and experience to appropriately review and adjust doses of antipsychotic medication without secondary care support. Aim To explore barriers and facilitators of conducting antipsychotic medication reviews in primary care for individuals with no specialist mental health input. Design &amp; setting Realist review in general practice settings. Method A realist review has been conducted to synthesise evidence on antipsychotic medication reviews conducted in primary care with service users diagnosed with schizophrenia or psychosis. Following initial scoping searches and discussions with stakeholders, a systematic search and iterative secondary searches were conducted. Articles were systematically screened and analysed to develop a realist programme theory explaining the contexts (C) and mechanisms (M) which facilitate or prevent antipsychotic medication reviews (O) in primary care settings, and the potential outcomes of medication reviews. Results Meaningful Antipsychotic medication reviews may not occur for individuals with only primary care medical input. Several, often mutually reinforcing, mechanisms have been identified as potential barriers to conducting such reviews, including low expectations of recovery for people with severe mental illness, a perceived lack of capability to understand and participate in medication reviews, linked with a lack of information shared in appointments between GPs and Service Users, perceived risk and uncertainty regarding antipsychotic medication and illness trajectory. Conclusions The review identified reciprocal and reinforcing stereotypes affecting both GPs and service users. Possible mechanisms to counteract these barriers are discussed, including realistic expectations of medication, and the need for increased information sharing and trust between GPs and service users. </jats:sec