Variability and uncertainty in empirical ground-motion prediction for probabilistic hazard and risk analyses

© The Author(s) 2015.The terms aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty mean different things to people who routinely use them within the fields of seismic hazard and risk analysis. This state is not helped by the repetition of loosely framed generic definitions that actually inaccurate. The present paper takes a closer look at the components of total uncertainty that contribute to ground-motion modelling in hazard and risk applications. The sources and nature of uncertainty are discussed and it is shown that the common approach to deciding what should be included within hazard and risk integrals and what should be pushed into logic tree formulations warrants reconsideration. In addition, it is shown that current approaches to the generation of random fields of ground motions for spatial risk analyses are incorrect and a more appropriate framework is presented

A population-based case-control study on social factors and risk of testicular germ cell tumours

Objectives Incidence rates for testicular cancer have risen over the last few decades. Findings of an association between the risk of testicular cancer and social factors are controversial. The association of testicular cancer and different indicators of social factors were examined in this study.<p></p> Design Case–control study.<p></p> Setting Population-based multicentre study in four German regions (city states Bremen and Hamburg, the Saarland region and the city of Essen).<p></p> Participants The study included 797 control participants and 266 participants newly diagnosed with testicular cancer of which 167 cases were classified as seminoma and 99 as non-seminoma. The age of study participants ranged from 15 to 69 years.<p></p> Methods Social position was classified by educational attainment level, posteducational training, occupational sectors according to Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarrero (EGP) and the socioeconomic status (SES) on the basis of the International SocioEconomic Index of occupational status (ISEI). ORs and corresponding 95% CIs (95% CIs) were calculated for the whole study sample and for seminoma and non-seminoma separately.<p></p> Results Testicular cancer risk was modestly increased among participants with an apprenticeship (OR=1.7 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.8)) or a university degree (OR=1.6 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.8)) relative to those whose education was limited to school. Analysis of occupational sectors revealed an excess risk for farmers and farm-related occupations. No clear trend was observed for the analyses according to the ISEI-scale.<p></p> Conclusions Social factors based on occupational measures were not a risk factor for testicular cancer in this study. The elevated risk in farmers and farm-related occupations warrants further research including analysis of occupational exposures.<p></p&gt

Specific IgE Response to Purified and Recombinant Allergens in Latex Allergy

Background In recent years, allergy to natural rubber latex has emerged as a major allergy among certain occupational groups and patients with underlying diseases. The sensitization and development of latex allergy has been attributed to exposure to products containing residual latex proteins. Although improved manufacturing procedures resulted in a considerable reduction of new cases, the potential risk for some patient groups is still great. In addition the prevalent cross-reactivity of latex proteins with other food allergens poses a major concern. A number of purified allergens and a few commercial kits are currently available, but no concerted effort was undertaken to evaluate them. Methods We studied 11 purified latex allergens, Hev b 1 to Hev b 10, and Hev b 13 along with several crude allergen extracts and two commercial ImmunoCAP assays to evaluate specific IgE antibody in the sera from latex allergic patients and controls. Health care workers and spina bifida patients with clinical symptoms of latex allergy, spina bifida patients without latex allergy, and non-atopic health care workers have been studied. Results The results suggest that Hev b 2, 5, 6, and 13 together identified over 80 percent health care workers with latex allergy, while Hev b 6 along with Hev b 1 or 3 detected specific IgE antibody in all sera studied from patients with spina bifida and latex allergy. The ImmunoCAP results using both Hev b 5 amplified and non-amplified closely agreed with the clinical diagnosis of latex allergy in health care workers and in spina bifida. Conclusion Although the purified allergens and crude extracts reacted diversely with IgE from different patient groups, the results indicated that use of certain combinations of purified recombinant antigens will be useful in commercial kits or in in-house assays for detecting specific IgE antibody in the sera. The results suggest that a combination of Hev b 2, 3, 5, 6, and 13 together detected specific IgE in 80% of the sera from latex allergic patients. Both ImmunoCAPs correctly identified over 95% of latex allergic patients, however, showed reactivity with a few normal control subject

Stakeholder Theory and Marketing: Moving from a Firm-Centric to a Societal Perspective

This essay is inspired by the ideas and research examined in the special section on “Stakeholder Marketing” of the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing in 2010. The authors argue that stakeholder marketing is slowly coalescing with the broader thinking that has occurred in the stakeholder management and ethics literature streams during the past quarter century. However, the predominant view of stakeholders that many marketers advocate is still primarily pragmatic and company centric. The position advanced herein is that stronger forms of stakeholder marketing that reflect more normative, macro/societal, and network-focused orientations are necessary. The authors briefly explain and justify these characteristics in the context of the growing “prosociety” and “proenvironment” perspectives—orientations that are also in keeping with the public policy focus of this journal. Under the “hard form” of stakeholder theory, which the authors endorse, marketing managers must realize that serving stakeholders sometimes requires sacrificing maximum profits to mitigate outcomes that would inflict major damage on other stakeholders, especially society

Determining the temporal profile of intracranial pressure changes following transient stroke in an ovine model

Cerebral edema and elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) are the leading cause of death in the first week following stroke. Despite this, current treatments are limited and fail to address the underlying mechanisms of swelling, highlighting the need for targeted treatments. When screening promising novel agents, it is essential to use clinically relevant large animal models to increase the likelihood of successful clinical translation. As such, we sought to develop a survival model of transient middle cerebral artery occlusion (tMCAO) in the sheep and subsequently characterize the temporal profile of cerebral edema and elevated ICP following stroke in this novel, clinically relevant model. Merino-sheep (27M;31F) were anesthetized and subject to 2 h tMCAO with reperfusion or sham surgery. Following surgery, animals were allowed to recover and returned to their home pens. At preselected times points ranging from 1 to 7 days post-stroke, animals were re-anesthetized, ICP measured for 4 h, followed by imaging with MRI to determine cerebral edema, midline shift and infarct volume (FLAIR, T2 and DWI). Animals were subsequently euthanized and their brain removed for immunohistochemical analysis. Serum and cerebrospinal fluid samples were also collected and analyzed for substance P (SP) using ELISA. Intracranial pressure and MRI scans were normal in sham animals. Following stroke, ICP rose gradually over time and by 5 days was significantly (p < 0.0001) elevated above sham levels. Profound cerebral edema was observed as early as 2 days post-stroke and continued to evolve out to 6 days, resulting in significant midline shift which was most prominent at 5 days post-stroke (p < 0.01), in keeping with increasing ICP. Serum SP levels were significantly elevated (p < 0.01) by 7 days post-tMCAO. We have successfully developed a survival model of ovine tMCAO and characterized the temporal profile of ICP. Peak ICP elevation, cerebral edema and midline shift occurred at days 5-6 following stroke, accompanied by an elevation in serum SP. Our findings suggest that novel therapeutic agents screened in this model targeting cerebral edema and elevated ICP would most likely be effective when administered prior to 5 days, or as early as possible following stroke onset.Annabel J. Sorby-Adams, Anna V. Leonard, Levi E. Elms, Oana C. Marian, Jan W. Hoving, Nawaf Yassi, Robert Vink, Emma Thornton and Renée J. Turne

Single Molecule Conformational Memory Extraction: P5ab RNA Hairpin

Extracting kinetic models from single molecule data is an important route to mechanistic insight in biophysics, chemistry, and biology. Data collected from force spectroscopy can probe discrete hops of a single molecule between different conformational states. Model extraction from such data is a challenging inverse problem because single molecule data are noisy and rich in structure. Standard modeling methods normally assume (i) a prespecified number of discrete states and (ii) that transitions between states are Markovian. The data set is then fit to this predetermined model to find a handful of rates describing the transitions between states. We show that it is unnecessary to assume either (i) or (ii) and focus our analysis on the zipping/unzipping transitions of an RNA hairpin. The key is in starting with a very broad class of non-Markov models in order to let the data guide us toward the best model from this very broad class. Our method suggests that there exists a folding intermediate for the P5ab RNA hairpin whose zipping/unzipping is monitored by force spectroscopy experiments. This intermediate would not have been resolved if a Markov model had been assumed from the onset. We compare the merits of our method with those of others

Consumer vulnerability and the transformative potential of Internet shopping: An exploratory case study

Ten&nbsp;million individuals in the UK who suffer from long-term illness, impairments or disability can be considered as vulnerable consumers (Office for Disability Issues, 2010). Despite this, there are few studies on the use of the Internet for grocery shopping by the disabled and none which offers an understanding of the multiple facets of consumer vulnerability. The purpose of this study is to contextualise the use of the Internet for grocery shopping using an exploratory case to provide fresh insights into the 'actual' vulnerability of "Danni" &ndash; a disabled housewife and mother. The consumer focussed methods used here were combined multiple complementary approaches. The findings illustrate that whilst the use of the Internet reduces the impracticalities of shopping in-store, the normalcy afforded to Danni through shopping in-store (including her sense of self) was not met by the technological offerings. The paradoxes associated with using online provision and the strategies adopted to manage these by Danni demonstrate engagement/disengagement and assimilation/isolation. Policy implications and insights for retailers are provided

A Requirement for Zic2 in the Regulation of Nodal Expression Underlies the Establishment of Left-Sided Identity

ZIC2 mutation is known to cause holoprosencephaly (HPE). A subset of ZIC2 HPE probands harbour cardiovascular and visceral anomalies suggestive of laterality defects. 3D-imaging of novel mouse Zic2 mutants uncovers, in addition to HPE, laterality defects in lungs, heart, vasculature and viscera. A strong bias towards right isomerism indicates a failure to establish left identity in the lateral plate mesoderm (LPM), a phenotype that cannot be explained simply by the defective ciliogenesis previously noted in Zic2 mutants. Gene expression analysis showed that the left-determining NODAL-dependent signalling cascade fails to be activated in the LPM, and that the expression of Nodal at the node, which normally triggers this event, is itself defective in these embryos. Analysis of ChiP-seq data, in vitro transcriptional assays and mutagenesis reveals a requirement for a low-affinity ZIC2 binding site for the activation of the Nodal enhancer HBE, which is normally active in node precursor cells. These data show that ZIC2 is required for correct Nodal expression at the node and suggest a model in which ZIC2 acts at different levels to establish LR asymmetry, promoting both the production of the signal that induces left side identity and the morphogenesis of the cilia that bias its distribution