Extracting kinetic models from single
molecule data is an important
route to mechanistic insight in biophysics, chemistry, and biology.
Data collected from force spectroscopy can probe discrete hops of
a single molecule between different conformational states. Model extraction
from such data is a challenging inverse problem because single molecule
data are noisy and rich in structure. Standard modeling methods normally
assume (i) a prespecified number of discrete states and (ii) that
transitions between states are Markovian. The data set is then fit
to this predetermined model to find a handful of rates describing
the transitions between states. We show that it is unnecessary to
assume either (i) or (ii) and focus our analysis on the zipping/unzipping
transitions of an RNA hairpin. The key is in starting with a very
broad class of non-Markov models in order to let the data guide us
toward the best model from this very broad class. Our method suggests
that there exists a folding intermediate for the P5ab RNA hairpin
whose zipping/unzipping is monitored by force spectroscopy experiments.
This intermediate would not have been resolved if a Markov model had
been assumed from the onset. We compare the merits of our method with
those of others