An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand

This paper presents a new approach using an Artificial Neural Network technique to improve rainfall forecast performance. A real world case study was set up in Bangkok; 4 years of hourly data from 75 rain gauge stations in the area were used to develop the ANN model. The developed ANN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Bangkok, Thailand. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with different kinds of input information. Preliminary tests showed that a generalized feedforward ANN model using hyperbolic tangent transfer function achieved the best generalization of rainfall. Especially, the use of a combination of meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air pressure, wet bulb temperature and cloudiness), the rainfall at the point of forecasting and rainfall at the surrounding stations, as an input data, advanced ANN model to apply with continuous data containing rainy and non-rainy period, allowed model to issue forecast at any moment. Additionally, forecasts by ANN model were compared to the convenient approach namely simple persistent method. Results show that ANN forecasts have superiority over the ones obtained by the persistent model. Rainfall forecasts for Bangkok from 1 to 3 h ahead were highly satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important input parameter besides rainfall itself is the wet bulb temperature in forecasting rainfall

The Rigidly Rotating Magnetosphere of Sigma Ori E

We attempt to characterize the observed variability of the magnetic helium-strong star sigma Ori E in terms of a recently developed rigidly rotating magnetosphere model. This model predicts the accumulation of circumstellar plasma in two co-rotating clouds, situated in magnetohydrostatic equilibrium at the intersection between magnetic and rotational equators. We find that the model can reproduce well the periodic modulations observed in the star's light curve, H alpha emission-line profile, and longitudinal field strength, confirming that it furnishes an essentially correct, quantitative description of the star's magnetically controlled circumstellar environment.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted by Ap

Focusing by blocking: repeatedly generating central density peaks in self-propelled particle systems by exploiting diffusive processes

Over the past few years the displacement statistics of self-propelled particles has been intensely studied, revealing their long-time diffusive behavior. Here, we demonstrate that a concerted combination of boundary conditions and switching on and off the self-propelling drive can generate and afterwards arbitrarily often restore a non-stationary centered peak in their spatial distribution. This corresponds to a partial reversibility of their statistical behavior, in opposition to the above-mentioned long-time diffusive nature. Interestingly, it is a diffusive process that mediates and makes possible this procedure. It should be straightforward to verify our predictions in a real experimental system.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Testing the companion hypothesis for the origin of the X-ray emission from intermediate-mass main-sequence stars

There is no straightforward explanation for intrinsic X-ray emission from intermediate-mass main-sequence stars. Therefore the observed emission is often interpreted in terms of (hypothesized) late-type magnetically active companion stars. We use Chandra imaging observations to spatially resolve in X-rays a sample of main-sequence B-type stars with recently discovered companions at arcsecond separation. We find that all spatially resolved companions are X-ray emitters, but seven out of eleven intermediate-mass stars are also X-ray sources. If this emission is interpreted in terms of additional sub-arcsecond or spectroscopic companions, this implies a high multiplicity of B-type stars. Firm results on B star multiplicity pending, the alternative, that B stars produce intrinsic X-rays, can not be discarded. The appropriate scenario in this vein is might be a magnetically confined wind, as suggested for the X-ray emission of the magnetic Ap star IQ Aur. However, the only Ap star in the Chandra sample is not detected in X-rays, and therefore does not support this picture.Comment: 12 pages; accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Predictions for mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities of massive O-type stars

Mass loss forms an important aspect of the evolution of massive stars, as well as for the enrichment of the surrounding ISM. Our goal is to predict accurate mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities. These quantities can be compared to empirical values, thereby testing radiation-driven wind models. One specific issue is that of the "weak-wind problem", where empirically derived mass-loss rates fall orders of magnitude short of predicted values. We employ an established Monte Carlo model and a recently suggested new line acceleration formalism to solve the wind dynamics consistently. We provide a new grid of mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities of O stars, and compare the values to empirical results. Our models fail to provide mass-loss rates for main-sequence stars below a luminosity of log(L/Lsun) = 5.2, where we run into a fundamental limit. At luminosities below this critical value there is insufficient momentum transferred in the region below the sonic point to kick-start the acceleration. This problem occurs at the location of the onset of the weak-wind problem. For O dwarfs, the boundary between being able to start a wind, and failing to do so, is at spectral type O6/O6.5. The direct cause of this failure is a combination of the lower luminosity and a lack of Fe V lines at the wind base. This might indicate that another mechanism is required to provide the necessary driving to initiate the wind. For stars more luminous than log(L/Lsun) = 5.2, our new mass-loss rates are in excellent agreement with the mass-loss prescription by Vink et al. 2000. This implies that the main assumption entering the method of the Vink et al. prescriptions - i.e. that the momentum equation is not explicitly solved for - does not compromise the reliability of the Vink et al. results for this part of parameter space (Abridged).Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, Astronomy & Astrophysics (in press

X-ray Variability in the Young Massive Triple theta2 Ori A

Massive stars rarely show intrinsic X-ray variability. The only O-stars credited to be intrinsically variable are theta1 Ori C due to effects from magnetic confinement of its wind, and theta2 Ori A suspected of similar activity. Early Chandra observations have shown that the most massive star system in the Orion Trapezium Cluster, theta2 Ori A, shows rapid variability on time scales of hours. We determine X-ray fluxes and find that the star shows very strong variability over the last 5 years. We observed a second large X-ray outburst in November 2004 with the high resolution transmission grating spectrometer on-board Chandra. In the low state X-ray emissivities indicate temperatures well above 25 MK. In the high state we find an extended emissivity distribution with high emissivities in the range from 3 MK to over 100 MK. The outburst event in stellar terms is one of the most powerful ever observed and the most energetic one in the ONC with a lower total energy limit of 1.5x10^37 ergs. The line diagnostics show that under the assumption that the line emitting regions in the low states are as close as within 1 -- 2 stellar radii from the O-star's photosphere, whereas the hard states suggest a distance of 3 -- 5 stellar radii. The two outbursts are very close to the periastron passage of the stars. We argue that the high X-ray states are possibly the result of reconnection events from magnetic interactions of the primary and secondary stars of the spectroscopic binary. Effects from wind collisions seem unlikely for this system. The low state emissivity and R-ratios strengthen the predicament that the X-ray emission is enhanced by magnetic confinement of the primary wind. We also detect Fe fluorescence indicative of the existence of substantial amounts of neutral Fe in the vicinity of the X-ray emission.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Main Journa

The effect of magnetic dipolar interactions on the interchain spin wave dispersion in CsNiF_3

Inelastic neutron scattering measurements were performed on the ferromagnetic chain system CsNiF_3 in the collinear antiferromagnetic ordered state below T_N = 2.67K. The measured spin wave dispersion was found to be in good agreement with linear spin wave theory including dipolar interactions. The additional dipole tensor in the Hamiltonian was essential to explain some striking phenomena in the measured spin wave spectrum: a peculiar feature of the dispersion relation is a jump at the zone center, caused by strong dipolar interactions in this system. The interchain exchange coupling constant and the planar anisotropy energy were determined within the present model to be J'/k_B = -0.0247(12)K and A/k_B = 3.3(1)K. This gives a ratio J/J' \approx 500, using the previously determined intrachain coupling constant J/k_B = 11.8$. The small exchange energy J' is of the same order as the dipolar energy, which implies a strong competition between the both interactions.Comment: 18 pages, TeX type, 7 Postscript figures included. To be published in Phys. Rev.

Lower bounds for several online variants of bin packing

We consider several previously studied online variants of bin packing and prove new and improved lower bounds on the asymptotic competitive ratios for them. For that, we use a method of fully adaptive constructions. In particular, we improve the lower bound for the asymptotic competitive ratio of online square packing significantly, raising it from roughly 1.68 to above 1.75.Comment: WAOA 201

High-Resolution Chandra X-Ray Imaging And Spectroscopy Of The Sigma Orionis Cluster

We present results of a 90 ks Chandra X-ray observation of the young sigma Orionis cluster ( age similar to 3 Myr) obtained with the HETGS. We use the high-resolution grating spectrum and moderate-resolution CCD spectrum of the massive central star sigma Ori AB (O9.5 V + B0.5 V) to test wind shock theories of X-ray emission and also analyze the high spatial resolution zero-order ACIS-S image of the central cluster region. Chandra detected 42 X-ray sources on the primary CCD (ACIS-S3). All but five have near-IR or optical counterparts and about one-fourth are variable. Notable high-mass stellar detections are sigma Ori AB, the magnetic B star sigma Ori E, and the B5 V binary HD 37525. Most of the other detections have properties consistent with lower mass K- or M-type stars. We present the first X-ray spectrum of the unusual infrared source IRS 1, located approximate to 3 \u27\u27 north of sigma Ori AB. Its X-ray properties and elongated mid-IR morphology suggest that it is an embedded low-mass T Tauri star whose disk/envelope is being photoevaporated by sigma Ori AB. We focus on the radiative wind shock interpretation of the soft luminous X-ray emission from sigma Ori AB, but also consider possible alternatives including magnetically confined wind shocks and colliding wind shocks. Its emission lines show no significant asymmetries or centroid shifts and are moderately broadened to HWHM approximate to 264 km s(-1), or one-fourth the terminal wind speed. Forbidden lines in He-like ions are formally undetected, implying strong UV suppression. The Mg XI triplet forms in the wind acceleration zone within one stellar radius above the surface. These X-ray properties are consistent in several respects with the predictions of radiative wind shock theory for an optically thin wind, but explaining the narrow line widths presents a challenge to the theory

NGC 1624-2: A slowly rotating, X-ray luminous Of?cp star with an extraordinarily strong magnetic field

This paper presents a first observational investigation of the faint Of?cp star NGC 1624-2, yielding important new constraints on its spectral and physical characteristics, rotation, magnetic field strength, X-ray emission and magnetospheric properties. Modeling the spectrum and spectral energy distribution, we conclude that NGC 1624-2 is a main sequence star of mass M {\simeq} 30 M{\odot}, and infer an effective temperature of 35 {\pm} 2 kK and log g = 4.0 {\pm} 0.2. Based on an extensive time series of optical spectral observations we report significant variability of a large number of spectral lines, and infer a unique period of 157.99 {\pm} 0.94 d which we interpret as the rotational period of the star. We report the detection of a very strong - 5.35 {\pm} 0.5 kG - longitudinal magnetic field , coupled with probable Zeeman splitting of Stokes I profiles of metal lines confirming a surface field modulus of 14 {\pm} 1 kG, consistent with a surface dipole of polar strength >~ 20 kG. This is the largest magnetic field ever detected in an O-type star, and the first report of Zeeman splitting of Stokes I profiles in such an object. We also report the detection of reversed Stokes V profiles associated with weak, high-excitation emission lines of O iii, which we propose may form in the close magnetosphere of the star. We analyze archival Chandra ACIS-I X-ray data, inferring a very hard spectrum with an X-ray efficiency log Lx/Lbol = -6.4, a factor of 4 larger than the canonical value for O-type stars and comparable to that of the young magnetic O-type star {\theta}1 Ori C and other Of?p stars. Finally, we examine the probable magnetospheric properties of the star, reporting in particular very strong magnetic confinement of the stellar wind, with {\eta}* {\simeq} 1.5 {\times} 10^4, and a very large Alfven radius, RAlf = 11.4 R*.Comment: 17 pages, MNRAS accepted and in pres