Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”

The Remote Field Effect and Its Interpretation

The Remote Field Effect (RFE) and the testing method based on it have attracted considerable attention from the research community. The need to explain the apparent discrepancies between the effect and the known electromagnetic field behavior is the reason for this attention

T1T_1- and T2T_2-spin relaxation time limitations of phosphorous donor electrons near crystalline silicon to silicon dioxide interface defects

A study of donor electron spins and spin--dependent electronic transitions involving phosphorous ($^{31}$P) atoms in proximity of the (111) oriented crystalline silicon (c-Si) to silicon dioxide (SiO$_{2}$) interface is presented for [$^{31}$P] = 10$^{15}$ $\mathrm{cm}^{-3}$ and [$^{31}$P] = 10$^{16}$ $\mathrm{cm}^{-3}$ at about liquid $^4$He temperatures ($T = 5$ $\mathrm{K} - 15$ $\mathrm{K}$). Using pulsed electrically detected magnetic resonance (pEDMR), spin--dependent transitions between the \Phos donor state and two distinguishable interface states are observed, namely (i) \Pb centers which can be identified by their characteristic anisotropy and (ii) a more isotropic center which is attributed to E$^\prime$ defects of the \sio bulk close to the interface. Correlation measurements of the dynamics of spin--dependent recombination confirm that previously proposed transitions between \Phos and the interface defects take place. The influence of these electronic near--interface transitions on the \Phos donor spin coherence time $T_2$ as well as the donor spin--lattice relaxation time $T_1$ is then investigated by comparison of spin Hahn--echo decay measurements obtained from conventional bulk sensitive pulsed electron paramagnetic resonance and surface sensitive pEDMR, as well as surface sensitive electrically detected inversion recovery experiments. The measurements reveal that both $T_2$ and $T_1$ of \Phos donor electrons spins in proximity of energetically lower interface states at $T\leq 13$ K are reduced by several orders of magnitude

Measuring solar-induced fluorescence from unmanned aircraft systems for operational use in plant phenotyping and precision farming

Demand for high spatial and temporal resolution measurements has triggered a rapid development of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for plant phenotyping and precision farming purposes. Similarly, recent progress in low-altitude remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) resulted in several studies aiming at the development of SIF proximal sensing approaches. Although first experimental results are promising, the requirements for reliable and repeatable measurements in agricultural experiments still constrain applicability of these platforms. In this study, we analyze current capabilities and potentials of SIF measuring UAS for operational use. We highlight existing challenges and outline how UAS SIF sensing could be used more frequently and reliably in precision agriculture applications in the near future.Peer reviewe

MMTF: The Maryland-Magellan Tunable Filter

This paper describes the Maryland-Magellan Tunable Filter (MMTF) on the Magellan-Baade 6.5-meter telescope. MMTF is based on a 150-mm clear aperture Fabry-Perot (FP) etalon that operates in low orders and provides transmission bandpass and central wavelength adjustable from ~5 to ~15 A and from ~5000 to over ~9200 A, respectively. It is installed in the Inamori Magellan Areal Camera and Spectrograph (IMACS) and delivers an image quality of ~0.5" over a field of view of 27' in diameter (monochromatic over ~10'). This versatile and easy-to-operate instrument has been used over the past three years for a wide variety of projects. This paper first reviews the basic principles of FP tunable filters, then provides a detailed description of the hardware and software associated with MMTF and the techniques developed to observe with this instrument and reduce the data. The main lessons learned in the course of the commissioning and implementation of MMTF are highlighted next, before concluding with a brief outlook on the future of MMTF and of similar facilities which are soon coming on line.Comment: 38 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, now accepted for publication to the Astronomical Journa

Chronic elevation of systemic glucagon-like peptide-1 following surgical weight loss: association with nausea and vomiting and effects on adipokines.

We determined whether persistent nausea and vomiting (N/V) symptoms following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery is due to elevated systemic glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and leptin in female non-diabetic subjects. Subjects with N/V post-Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery had significantly elevated fasting GLP-1 levels compared to that with post-operative asymptomatic subjects and to morbidly obese, obese and lean subjects not undergoing surgery. Weight loss, glycaemia, insulin and post-prandial GLP-1 levels were similar in all post-operative subjects. Despite comparable BMI, leptin was significantly lower in symptomatic subjects. Furthermore, leptin secretion from subcutaneous adipose tissue was inhibited by GLP-1 (0.1-1.0 nM; n = 6). Persistent N/V following RYGB surgery is associated with elevated fasting GLP-1, but lower leptin levels. The latter may be a consequence of the direct GLP-1 inhibition of leptin secretion from adipose tissue

A Role for the Vacuolating Cytotoxin, VacA, in Colonization and Helicobacter pylori-Induced Metaplasia in the Stomach

Carriage of Helicobacter pylori strains producing more active (s1/i1) forms of VacA is strongly associated with gas-tric adenocarcinoma. To our knowledge, we are the first to determine effects of different polymorphic forms of VacA on inflammation and metaplasia in the mouse stomach. Bacteria producing the less active s2/i2 form of VacA colonized mice more efficiently than mutants null for VacA or producing more active forms of it, providing the first evidence of a positive role for the minimally active s2/i2 toxin. Strains producing more active toxin forms induced more severe and extensive metaplasia and in flammation in the mouse stomach than strains producing weakly active (s2/i2) toxin. We also examined the association in humans, controlling for cag PAI status. In human gastric biopsy specimens, the vacA i1 allele was strongly associated with precancerous intestinal metaplasia, with almost complete absence of intestinal metaplasia in subjects infected with i2-type strains, even in a vacA s1, cagA+ background

Human skeletal muscle is refractory to the anabolic effects of leucine during the postprandial muscle-full period in older men

Leucine modulates muscle protein synthesis (MPS), with potential to facilitate accrual/maintenance of muscle mass. Animal models suggest that leucine boluses shortly after meals may prolong MPS and delay onset of a “muscle-full” state. However, the effects of nutrient “top-ups” in humans, and particularly older adults where deficits exist, have not been explored. We determined the effects of a leucine top-up after essential amino acid (EAA) feeding on anabolic signaling, MPS, and muscle energy metabolism in older men. During 13C6-phenylalanine infusion, 16 men (∼70 years) consumed 15 g of EAA with (n=8, FED + LEU) or without (n=8, FED) 3 g of leucine top-up 90 min later. Repeated blood and muscle sampling permitted measurement of fasting and postprandial plasma EAA, insulin, anabolic signaling including mTOR complex 1 (mTORC1) substrates, cellular ATP and phosphorylocreatine, and MPS. Oral EAA achieved rapid insulinemia (12.5 iU·ml−1 25 min post-feed), essential aminoacidemia (3000 μM, 45–65 min post-feed), and activation of mTORC1 signaling. Leucine top-up prolonged plasma EAA (2800 μM, 135 min) and leucine availability (1050 μM, 135 min post-feed). Fasting FSRs of 0.046 and 0.056%·h-1 (FED and FED + LEU respectively) increased to 0.085 and 0.085%·h-1 90–180 min post-feed and returned to basal rates after 180 min in both groups. Phosphorylation of mTORC1 substrates returned to fasting levels 240 min post-feed in both groups. Feeding had limited effect on muscle elongation factor 2 (eEF2) phosphorylation. We demonstrate the refractoriness of muscle to nutrient-led anabolic stimulation in the postprandial period; thus, leucine supplements should be taken outside of meals, or with meals containing suboptimal protein in terms of either amount or EAA composition

Finding the 'right' GP : a qualitative study of the experiences of people with long-COVID

Background: An unknown proportion of people who had an apparently mild COVID-19 infection continue to suffer with persistent symptoms, including chest pain, shortness of breath, muscle and joint pains, headaches, cognitive impairment (‘brain fog’), and fatigue. Post-acute COVID-19 (‘long-COVID’) seems to be a multisystem disease, sometimes occurring after a mild acute illness; people struggling with these persistent symptoms refer to themselves as ‘long haulers’. Aim: To explore experiences of people with persisting symptoms following COVID-19 infection, and their views on primary care support received. Design & setting: Qualitative methodology, with semi-structured interviews to explore perspectives of people with persisting symptoms following suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection. Participants were recruited via social media between July–August 2020. Method: Interviews were conducted by telephone or video call, digitally recorded, and transcribed with consent. Thematic analysis was conducted applying constant comparison techniques. People with experience of persisting symptoms contributed to study design and data analysis. Results: This article reports analysis of 24 interviews. The main themes include: the ‘hard and heavy work’ of enduring and managing symptoms and accessing care; living with uncertainty, helplessness and fear, particularly over whether recovery is possible; the importance of finding the 'right' GP (understanding, empathy, and support needed); and recovery and rehabilitation: what would help? Conclusion: This study will raise awareness among primary care professionals, and commissioners, of long-COVID and the range of symptoms people are experiencing. Patients require their GP to believe their symptoms and to demonstrate empathy and understanding. Ongoing support by primary care professionals during recovery and rehabilitation is crucial