The influence of risk perception in epidemics: a cellular agent model

Our work stems from the consideration that the spreading of a disease is modulated by the individual's perception of the infected neighborhood and his/her strategy to avoid being infected as well. We introduced a general ``cellular agent'' model that accounts for a hetereogeneous and variable network of connections. The probability of infection is assumed to depend on the perception that an individual has about the spreading of the disease in her local neighborhood and on broadcasting media. In the one-dimensional homogeneous case the model reduces to the DK one, while for long-range coupling the dynamics exhibits large fluctuations that may lead to the complete extinction of the disease

Coastal oceanography and sedimentology in New Zealand, 1967-91.

This paper reviews research that has taken place on physical oceanography and sedimentology on New Zealand's estuaries and the inner shelf since c. 1967. It includes estuarine sedimentation, tidal inlets, beach morphodynamics, nearshore and inner shelf sedimentation, tides and coastal currents, numerical modelling, short-period waves, tsunamis, and storm surges. An extensive reference list covering both published and unpublished material is included. Formal teaching and research programmes dealing with coastal landforms and the processes that shape them were only introduced to New Zealand universities in 1964; the history of the New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research parallels and chronicles the development of physical coastal science in New Zealand, most of which has been accomplished in last 25 years

Statistics of extinction and survival in Lotka-Volterra systems

We analyze purely competitive many-species Lotka-Volterra systems with random interaction matrices, focusing the attention on statistical properties of their asymptotic states. Generic features of the evolution are outlined from a semiquantitative analysis of the phase-space structure, and extensive numerical simulations are performed to study the statistics of the extinctions. We find that the number of surviving species depends strongly on the statistical properties of the interaction matrix, and that the probability of survival is weakly correlated to specific initial conditions.Comment: Previous version had error in authors. 11 pages, including 5 figure

Measurement of throughput variation across a large format volume-phase holographic grating

In this paper, we report measurements of diffraction efficiency and angular dispersion for a large format (~ 25 cm diameter) Volume-Phase Holographic (VPH) grating optimized for near-infrared wavelengths (0.9 ~ 1.8 μm). The aim of this experiment is to see whether optical characteristics vary significantly across the grating. We sampled three positions in the grating aperture with a separation of 5 cm between each. A 2 cm diameter beam is used to illuminate the grating. At each position, throughput and diffraction angle were measured at several wavelengths. It is found that whilst the relationship between diffraction angle and wavelength is nearly he same at the three positions, the throughputs vary by up to ~ 10% from position to position. We explore the origin of the throughput variation by comparing the data with predictions from coupled-wave analysis. We find that it can be explained by a combination of small variations over the grating aperture in gelatin depth and/or refractive index modulation amplitude, and amount of energy loss by internal absorption and/or surface reflection

Graviton confinement inside hypermonopoles of any dimension

We show the generic existence of metastable massive gravitons in the four-dimensional core of self-gravitating hypermonopoles in any number of infinite-volume extra-dimensions. Confinement is observed for Higgs and gauge bosons couplings of the order unity. Provided these resonances are light enough, they realise the Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati mechanism by inducing a four-dimensional gravity law on some intermediate length scales. The effective four-dimensional Planck mass is shown to be proportional to a negative power of the graviton mass. As a result, requiring gravity to be four-dimensional on cosmological length scales may solve the mass hierarchy problem.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures, uses iopart. Misprints corrected, references added, matches published versio

Probing Broad Absorption Line Quasar Outflows: X-ray Insights

Energetic outflows appear to occur in conjunction with active mass accretion onto supermassive black holes. These outflows are most readily observed in the approximately 10% of quasars with broad absorption lines, where the observer's line of sight passes through the wind. Until fairly recently, the paucity of X-ray data from these objects was notable, but now sensitive hard-band missions such as Chandra and XMM-Newton are routinely detecting broad absorption line quasars. The X-ray regime offers qualitatively new information for the understanding of these objects, and these new results must be taken into account in theoretical modeling of quasar winds.Comment: Submitted to Advances in Space Research for New X-ray Results from Clusters of Galaxies and Black Holes (Oct 2002; Houston, TX), eds. C. Done, E.M. Puchnarewicz, M.J. Ward. Requires cospar.sty (6 pgs, 5 figs

Incidence of schizophrenia and other psychoses in ethnic minority groups: results from the MRC AESOP Study

Background. The incidence of schizophrenia in the African-Caribbean population in England is reported to be raised. We sought to clarify whether (a) the rates of other psychotic disorders are increased, (b) whether psychosis is increased in other ethnic minority groups, and (c) whether particular age or gender groups are especially at risk. Method. We identified all people (n=568) aged 16-64 years presenting to secondary services with their first psychotic symptoms in three well-defined English areas (over a 2-year period in Southeast London and Nottingham and a 9-month period in Bristol). Standardized incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for all major psychosis syndromes for all main ethnic groups were calculated. Results. We found remarkably high IRRs for both schizophrenia and manic psychosis in both African-Caribbeans (schizophrenia 9.1, manic psychosis 8.0) and Black Africans (schizophrenia 5.8, manic psychosis 6.2) in men and women. IRRs in other ethnic minority groups were modestly increased as were rates for depressive psychosis and other psychoses in all minority groups. These raised rates were evident in all age groups in our study. Conclusions. Ethnic minority groups are at increased risk for all psychotic illnesses but African- Caribbeans and Black Africans appear to be at especially high risk for both schizophrenia and mania. These findings suggest that (a) either additional risk factors are operating in African- Caribbeans and Black Africans or that these factors are particularly prevalent in these groups, and that (b) such factors increase risk for schizophrenia and mania in these groups

Low expression and promoter hypermethylation of the tumour suppressor SLIT2, are associated with adverse patient outcomes in diffuse large B cell lymphoma

SLIT2 has been classified as a major tumour suppressor gene due to its frequent inactivation in different cancer types. However, alterations of SLIT2 expression and relation to patient outcomes in diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) remain undefined. The aim of this study was to investigate the expression and the methylation status of SLIT2 gene as well as its relation to patient outcomes in DLBCL. Immunohistochemical (IHC) staining was carried out to detect the expression of SLIT2 in a series of 108 DLBCL cases. Re-analysis of previously published dataset (GSE10846) that measured gene expression in DLBCL patients who had received CHOP or R-CHOP therapy was performed to identify associations between SLIT2 and patients survival. Laser capture microdissection was performed to isolate GC B cells and DLBCL primary tumor cells. Bisulfite treatment and methylation-specific PCR (MSP) analysis were done to assess SLIT2 promotor methylation status. We report that the expression of SLIT2 protein was reduced in a subset of DLBCL cases and this was significantly correlated with advanced clinical stage (p = 0.041) and was an independent predictor of worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.012). Re-analysis of published gene expression data showed that reduced SLIT2 mRNA expression was significantly correlated with worse OS in R-CHOP-treated ABC DLBCL patients (p = <0.01). Hypermethylation of the SLIT2 promotor was significantly correlated with low SLIT2 expression (p = 0.009). Our results provide a novel evidence of reduced expression of SLIT2 that is associated with promoter hypermethylation and adverse outcomes in patients with DLBCL

Feedback methods for inverse simulation of dynamic models for engineering systems applications

Inverse simulation is a form of inverse modelling in which computer simulation methods are used to find the time histories of input variables that, for a given model, match a set of required output responses. Conventional inverse simulation methods for dynamic models are computationally intensive and can present difficulties for high-speed applications. This paper includes a review of established methods of inverse simulation,giving some emphasis to iterative techniques that were first developed for aeronautical applications. It goes on to discuss the application of a different approach which is based on feedback principles. This feedback method is suitable for a wide range of linear and nonlinear dynamic models and involves two distinct stages. The first stage involves design of a feedback loop around the given simulation model and, in the second stage, that closed-loop system is used for inversion of the model. Issues of robustness within closed-loop systems used in inverse simulation are not significant as there are no plant uncertainties or external disturbances. Thus the process is simpler than that required for the development of a control system of equivalent complexity. Engineering applications of this feedback approach to inverse simulation are described through case studies that put particular emphasis on nonlinear and multi-input multi-output models