Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post-discharge mortality from sepsis: a protocol development project

Background: Post-discharge mortality is a frequent but poorly recognized contributor to child mortality in resource limited countries. The identification of children at high risk for post-discharge mortality is a critically important first step in addressing this problem.Objectives: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post-discharge mortality which are to be included in a prediction modelling study.Methods: A two-round modified Delphi process was completed for the review of a priori selected variables and selection of new variables. Variables were evaluated on relevance according to (1) prediction (2) availability (3) cost and (4) time required for measurement. Participants included experts in a variety of relevant fields.Results: During the first round of the modified Delphi process, 23 experts evaluated 17 variables. Forty further variables were suggested and were reviewed during the second round by 12 experts. During the second round 16 additional variables were evaluated. Thirty unique variables were compiled for use in the prediction modelling study.Conclusion: A systematic approach was utilized to generate an optimal list of candidate predictor variables for the incorporation into a study on prediction of pediatric post-discharge mortality in a resource poor setting.Keywords: Candidate predictor variables, pediatrics, prediction, post-discharge mortality, sepsi

Individual, maternal and household risk factors for anaemia among young children in sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-sectional study

Objective: Anaemia affects the majority of children in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Previous studies of risk factors for anaemia have been limited by sample size, geography and the association of many risk factors with poverty. In order to measure the relative impact of individual, maternal and household risk factors for anaemia in young children, we analysed data from all SSA countries that performed haemoglobin (Hb) testing in the Demographic and Health Surveys. Design and setting This cross-sectional study pooled household-level data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 27 SSA between 2008 and 2014. Participants: 96 804 children age 6–59 months. Results: The prevalence of childhood anaemia (defined as Hb <11 g/dL) across the region was 59.9%, ranging from 23.7% in Rwanda to 87.9% in Burkina Faso. In multivariable regression models, older age, female sex, greater wealth, fewer household members, greater height-for-age, older maternal age, higher maternal body mass index, current maternal pregnancy and higher maternal Hb, and absence of recent fever were associated with higher Hb in tested children. Demographic, socioeconomic factors, family structure, water/sanitation, growth, maternal health and recent illnesses were significantly associated with the presence of childhood anaemia. These risk factor groups explain a significant fraction of anaemia (ranging from 1.0% to 16.7%) at the population level. Conclusions: The findings from our analysis of risk factors for anaemia in SSA underscore the importance of family and socioeconomic context in childhood anaemia. These data highlight the need for integrated programmes that address the multifactorial nature of childhood anaemia

Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post-discharge mortality from sepsis: a protocol development project.

Background: Post-discharge mortality is a frequent but poorly recognized contributor to child mortality in resource limited countries. The identification of children at high risk for post-discharge mortality is a critically important first step in addressing this problem. Objectives: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post-discharge mortality which are to be included in a prediction modelling study. Methods: A two-round modified Delphi process was completed for the review of a priori selected variables and selection of new variables. Variables were evaluated on relevance according to (1) prediction (2) availability (3) cost and (4) time required for measurement. Participants included experts in a variety of relevant fields. Results: During the first round of the modified Delphi process, 23 experts evaluated 17 variables. Forty further variables were suggested and were reviewed during the second round by 12 experts. During the second round 16 additional variables were evaluated. Thirty unique variables were compiled for use in the prediction modelling study. Conclusion: A systematic approach was utilized to generate an optimal list of candidate predictor variables for the incorporation into a study on prediction of pediatric post-discharge mortality in a resource poor setting

Individual, maternal and household risk factors for anaemia among young children in sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-sectional study

Objective: Anaemia affects the majority of children in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Previous studies of risk factors for anaemia have been limited by sample size, geography and the association of many risk factors with poverty. In order to measure the relative impact of individual, maternal and household risk factors for anaemia in young children, we analysed data from all SSA countries that performed haemoglobin (Hb) testing in the Demographic and Health Surveys. Design and setting This cross-sectional study pooled household-level data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 27 SSA between 2008 and 2014. Participants: 96 804 children age 6–59 months. Results: The prevalence of childhood anaemia (defined as Hb <11 g/dL) across the region was 59.9%, ranging from 23.7% in Rwanda to 87.9% in Burkina Faso. In multivariable regression models, older age, female sex, greater wealth, fewer household members, greater height-for-age, older maternal age, higher maternal body mass index, current maternal pregnancy and higher maternal Hb, and absence of recent fever were associated with higher Hb in tested children. Demographic, socioeconomic factors, family structure, water/sanitation, growth, maternal health and recent illnesses were significantly associated with the presence of childhood anaemia. These risk factor groups explain a significant fraction of anaemia (ranging from 1.0% to 16.7%) at the population level. Conclusions: The findings from our analysis of risk factors for anaemia in SSA underscore the importance of family and socioeconomic context in childhood anaemia. These data highlight the need for integrated programmes that address the multifactorial nature of childhood anaemia

Protecting children in low-income and middle-income countries from COVID-19

CITATION: Ahmed, S. et al. 2020. Protecting children in low-income and middle-income countries from COVID-19. BMJ Global Health, 5:e002844. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002844.The original publication is available at https://gh.bmj.comA saving grace of the COVID-19 pandemic in high-income and upper middle-income countries has been the relative sparing of children. As the disease spreads across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), long-standing system vulnerabilities may tragically manifest, and we worry that children will be increasingly impacted, both directly and indirectly. Drawing on our shared child pneumonia experience globally, we highlight these potential impacts on children in LMICs and propose actions for a collective response.https://gh.bmj.com/content/5/5/e002844.abstractPublisher's versio

Pneumonia in HIV-exposed and Infected Children and Association With Malnutrition.

We evaluated the association between HIV exposed-uninfected (HEU) status, malnutrition and risk of death in Ugandan children hospitalized with pneumonia. Both HIV exposure and infection were associated with lower anthropometric indices on univariate analysis, and mid-upper arm circumference was significantly associated with overall mortality (odds ratio (OR), 0.96) in a multivariable model. HIV infection (OR 5.0) but not HEU status was associated with overall mortality. Malnutrition may contribute to poor pneumonia outcomes among HIV-infected and HEU children requiring hospitalization

Very severe anemia and one year mortality outcome after hospitalization in Tanzanian children: A prospective cohort study.

BackgroundAfrica has the highest rates of child mortality. Little is known about outcomes after hospitalization for children with very severe anemia.ObjectiveTo determine one year mortality and predictors of mortality in Tanzanian children hospitalized with very severe anemia.MethodsWe conducted a prospective cohort study enrolling children 2-12 years hospitalized from August 2014 to November 2014 at two public hospitals in northwestern Tanzania. Children were screened for anemia and followed until 12 months after discharge. The primary outcome measured was mortality. Predictors of mortality were determined using Cox regression analysis.ResultsOf the 505 children, 90 (17.8%) had very severe anemia and 415 (82.1%) did not. Mortality was higher for children with very severe anemia compared to children without over a one year period from admission, 27/90 (30.0%) vs. 59/415 (14.2%) respectively (Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.42, 95% Cl 1.53-3.83). In-hospital mortality was 11/90 (12.2%) and post-hospital mortality was 16/79 (20.2%) for children with very severe anemia. The strongest predictors of mortality were age (HR 1.01, 95% Cl 1.00-1.03) and decreased urine output (HR 4.30, 95% Cl 1.04-17.7).ConclusionsChildren up to 12 years of age with very severe anemia have nearly a 30% chance of mortality following admission over a one year period, with over 50% of mortality occurring after discharge. Post-hospital interventions are urgently needed to reduce mortality in children with very severe anemia, and should include older children