The Swing Voter’s Curse in the Laboratory

This paper reports the first laboratory study of the swing voter’s curse and provides insights on the larger theoretical and empirical literature on "pivotal voter" models. Our experiment controls for different information levels of voters, as well as the size of the electorate, the distribution of preferences, and other theoretically relevant parameters. The design varies the share of partisan voters and the prior belief about a payoff relevant state of the world. Our results support the equilibrium predictions of the Feddersen-Pesendorfer model, and clearly reject the notion that voters in the laboratory use naive decision-theoretic strategies. The voters act as if they are aware of the swing voter’s curse and adjust their behavior to compensate. While the compensation is not complete and there is some heterogeneity in individual behavior, we find that aggregate outcomes, such as efficiency, turnout, and margin of victory, closely track the theoretical predictions

Campaign Spending with Impressionable Voters

We consider a model of two-candidate elections with a one-dimensional policy space. Spending on campaign advertisements can directly influence voters' preferences, and contributors give the money for campaign spending in exchange for promised services if the candidate wins. we find that the winner of the election depends crucially on the contributors' beliefs about who is likely to win, and the contribution market tends towards nonsymmetric equilibria in which one of the two candidates has no chance of winning. If the voters are only weakly influenced by advertising or if permissible campaign spending is small, then the candidates choose policies close to the median voter's ideal point, but the contributors still determine the winner. Uncertainty about the Condorcet-winning point (or its nonexistence) can change these results and generate equilibria in which both candidates have substantial probabilities of winning.

Autologous Stem Cell Transplant is Feasible in Very Elderly Patients with Lymphoma and Limited Comorbidity

In patients with recurrent Hodgkin or non-Hodgkin\u27s lymphoma, autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) can offer potential for cure or long-term remission. Because of potential toxicity, elderly patients are usually not considered candidates, but data regarding tolerability and efficacy in this group are lacking. The transplant database at Weill Cornell Medical College was reviewed to identify patients with lymphoma undergoing ASCT at age 69 or greater. Clinical data and comorbidities were correlated with outcome. Twenty-one patients were identified. Sixteen of 19 evaluable patients (76%) achieved complete remission following ASCT, while 2 patients died before response assessment. Median progression-free survival following ASCT was 8 months and median overall survival was 18 months. Age was not predictive of overall survival, but patients 75 and older had inferior progression-free survival compared to younger patients. High-risk status by hematopoietic stem cell transplant comorbidity index (HCT-CI) was associated with short overall survival and high transplant-related mortality. ASCT is feasible and of potential benefit in selected elderly lymphoma patients. Consideration of comorbidities, rather than age alone, may allow selection of patients likely to tolerate and benefit from ASCT

Autologous Stem Cell Transplant is Feasible in Very Elderly Patients with Lymphoma and Limited Comorbidity

In patients with recurrent Hodgkin or non-Hodgkin\u27s lymphoma, autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) can offer potential for cure or long-term remission. Because of potential toxicity, elderly patients are usually not considered candidates, but data regarding tolerability and efficacy in this group are lacking. The transplant database at Weill Cornell Medical College was reviewed to identify patients with lymphoma undergoing ASCT at age 69 or greater. Clinical data and comorbidities were correlated with outcome. Twenty-one patients were identified. Sixteen of 19 evaluable patients (76%) achieved complete remission following ASCT, while 2 patients died before response assessment. Median progression-free survival following ASCT was 8 months and median overall survival was 18 months. Age was not predictive of overall survival, but patients 75 and older had inferior progression-free survival compared to younger patients. High-risk status by hematopoietic stem cell transplant comorbidity index (HCT-CI) was associated with short overall survival and high transplant-related mortality. ASCT is feasible and of potential benefit in selected elderly lymphoma patients. Consideration of comorbidities, rather than age alone, may allow selection of patients likely to tolerate and benefit from ASCT

The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Patients With Primary Immune Regulatory Disorders (PIRD): A Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium (PIDTC) Survey.

Primary Immune Regulatory Disorders (PIRD) are an expanding group of diseases caused by gene defects in several different immune pathways, such as regulatory T cell function. Patients with PIRD develop clinical manifestations associated with diminished and exaggerated immune responses. Management of these patients is complicated; oftentimes immunosuppressive therapies are insufficient, and patients may require hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) for treatment. Analysis of HCT data in PIRD patients have previously focused on a single gene defect. This study surveyed transplanted patients with a phenotypic clinical picture consistent with PIRD treated in 33 Primary Immune Deficiency Treatment Consortium centers and European centers. Our data showed that PIRD patients often had immunodeficient and autoimmune features affecting multiple organ systems. Transplantation resulted in resolution of disease manifestations in more than half of the patients with an overall 5-years survival of 67%. This study, the first to encompass disorders across the PIRD spectrum, highlights the need for further research in PIRD management

Influence of family and friend smoking on intentions to smoke and smoking-related attitudes and refusal self-efficacy among 9-10 year old children from deprived neighbourhoods: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Smoking often starts in early adolescence and addiction can occur rapidly. For effective smoking prevention there is a need to identify at risk groups of preadolescent children and whether gender-specific intervention components are necessary. This study aimed to examine associations between mother, father, sibling and friend smoking and cognitive vulnerability to smoking among preadolescent children living in deprived neighbourhoods. METHODS: Cross-sectional data was collected from 9-10 year old children (n =1143; 50.7% girls; 85.6% White British) from 43 primary schools in Merseyside, England. Children completed a questionnaire that assessed their smoking-related behaviour, intentions, attitudes, and refusal self-efficacy, as well as parent, sibling and friend smoking. Data for boys and girls were analysed separately using multilevel linear and logistic regression models, adjusting for individual cognitions and school and deprivation level. RESULTS: Compared to girls, boys had lower non-smoking intentions (P = 0.02), refusal self-efficacy (P = 0.04) and were less likely to agree that smoking is 'definitely' bad for health (P < 0.01). Friend smoking was negatively associated with non-smoking intentions in girls (P < 0.01) and boys (P < 0.01), and with refusal self-efficacy in girls (P < 0.01). Sibling smoking was negatively associated with non-smoking intentions in girls (P < 0.01) but a positive association was found in boys (P = 0.02). Boys who had a smoking friend were less likely to 'definitely' believe that the smoke from other people's cigarettes is harmful (OR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.91, P = 0.02). Further, boys with a smoking friend (OR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.69, P < 0.01) or a smoking sibling (OR 0.45, 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.98) were less likely to 'definitely' believe that smoking is bad for health. CONCLUSION: This study indicates that sibling and friend smoking may represent important influences on 9-10 year old children's cognitive vulnerability toward smoking. Whilst some differential findings by gender were observed, these may not be sufficient to warrant separate prevention interventions. However, further research is needed

CSF1R+ Macrophages Sustain Pancreatic Tumor Growth through T Cell Suppression and Maintenance of Key Gene Programs that Define the Squamous Subtype.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is resistant to most therapies including single-agent immunotherapy and has a dense desmoplastic stroma, and most patients present with advanced metastatic disease. We reveal that macrophages are the dominant leukocyte population both in human PDAC stroma and autochthonous models, with an important functional contribution to the squamous subtype of human PDAC. We targeted macrophages in a genetic PDAC model using AZD7507, a potent selective inhibitor of CSF1R. AZD7507 caused shrinkage of established tumors and increased mouse survival in this difficult-to-treat model. Malignant cell proliferation diminished, with increased cell death and an enhanced T cell immune response. Loss of macrophages rewired other features of the TME, with global changes in gene expression akin to switching PDAC subtypes. These changes were markedly different to those elicited when neutrophils were targeted via CXCR2. These results suggest targeting the myeloid cell axis may be particularly efficacious in PDAC, especially with CSF1R inhibitors

Spatial Organization and Molecular Correlation of Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes Using Deep Learning on Pathology Images

Beyond sample curation and basic pathologic characterization, the digitized H&E-stained images of TCGA samples remain underutilized. To highlight this resource, we present mappings of tumorinfiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) based on H&E images from 13 TCGA tumor types. These TIL maps are derived through computational staining using a convolutional neural network trained to classify patches of images. Affinity propagation revealed local spatial structure in TIL patterns and correlation with overall survival. TIL map structural patterns were grouped using standard histopathological parameters. These patterns are enriched in particular T cell subpopulations derived from molecular measures. TIL densities and spatial structure were differentially enriched among tumor types, immune subtypes, and tumor molecular subtypes, implying that spatial infiltrate state could reflect particular tumor cell aberration states. Obtaining spatial lymphocytic patterns linked to the rich genomic characterization of TCGA samples demonstrates one use for the TCGA image archives with insights into the tumor-immune microenvironment