How do Air Traffic Controllers Use Automation and Tools Differently During High Demand Situations?

In a human-in-the-loop simulation, two air traffic controllers managed identical airspace while burdened with higher than average workload, and while using advanced tools and automation designed to assist with scheduling aircraft on multiple arrival flows to a single meter fix. This paper compares the strategies employed by each controller, and investigates how the controllers' strategies change while managing their airspace under more normal workload conditions and a higher workload condition. Each controller engaged in different methods of maneuvering aircraft to arrive on schedule, and adapted their strategies to cope with the increased workload in different ways. Based on the conclusions three suggestions are made: that quickly providing air traffic controllers with recommendations and information to assist with maneuvering and scheduling aircraft when burdened with increased workload will improve the air traffic controller's effectiveness, that the tools should adapt to the strategy currently employed by a controller, and that training should emphasize which traffic management strategies are most effective given specific airspace demands

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

This research was enabled partly by a grant from The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GOMRI).The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Largest GWAS of PTSD (N=20 070) yields genetic overlap with schizophrenia and sex differences in heritability

The Psychiatric Genomics Consortium-Posttraumatic Stress Disorder group (PGC-PTSD) combined genome-wide case-control molecular genetic data across 11 multiethnic studies to quantify PTSD heritability, to examine potential shared genetic risk with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder and to identify risk loci for PTSD. Examining 20 730 individuals, we report a molecular genetics-based heritability estimate (h 2 SNP) for European-American females of 29% that is similar to h 2 SNP for schizophrenia and is substantially higher than h 2 SNP in European-American males (estimate not distinguishable from zero). We found strong evidence of overlapping genetic risk between PTSD and schizophrenia along with more modest evidence of overlap with bipolar and major depressive disorder. No single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) exceeded genome-wide significance in the transethnic (overall) meta-analysis and we do not replicate previously reported associations. Still, SNP-level summary statistics made available here afford the best-available molecular genetic index of PTSD - for both European- and African-American individuals - and can be used in polygenic risk prediction and genetic correlation studies of diverse phenotypes. Publication of summary statistics for 1/410 000 African Americans contributes to the broader goal of increased ancestral diversity in genomic data resources. In sum, the results demonstrate genetic influences on the development of PTSD, identify shared genetic risk between PTSD and other psychiatric disorders and highlight the importance of multiethnic/racial samples. As has been the case with schizophrenia and other complex genetic disorders, larger sample sizes are needed to identify specific risk loci

A putative causal relationship between genetically determined female body shape and posttraumatic stress disorder

Background: The nature and underlying mechanisms of the observed increased vulnerability to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in women are unclear. Methods: We investigated the genetic overlap of PTSD with anthropometric traits and reproductive behaviors and functions in women. The analysis was conducted using female-specific summary statistics from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and a cohort of 3577 European American women (966 PTSD cases and 2611 trauma-exposed controls). We applied a high-resolution polygenic score approach and Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate genetic correlations and causal relationships. Results: We observed an inverse association of PTSD with genetically determined anthropometric traits related to body shape, independent of body mass index (BMI). The top association was related to BMI-adjusted waist circumference (WCadj; R = -0.079, P < 0.001, Q = 0.011). We estimated a relative decrease of 64.6% (95% confidence interval = 27.5-82.7) in the risk of PTSD per 1-SD increase in WCadj. MR-Egger regression intercept analysis showed no evidence of pleiotropic effects in this association (Ppleiotropy = 0.979). We also observed associations of genetically determined WCadj with age at first sexual intercourse and number of sexual partners (P = 0.013 and P < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions: There is a putative causal relationship between genetically determined female body shape and PTSD, which could be mediated by evolutionary mechanisms involved in human sexual behaviors

Pest population dynamics are related to a continental overwintering gradient

Overwintering success is an important determinant of arthropod populations that must be considered as climate change continues to influence the spatiotemporal population dynamics of agricultural pests. Using a long-term monitoring database and biologically relevant overwintering zones, we modeled the annual and seasonal population dynamics of a common pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), based on three overwintering suitability zones throughout North America using four decades of soil temperatures: the southern range (able to persist through winter), transitional zone (uncertain overwintering survivorship), and northern limits (unable to survive winter). Our model indicates H. zea population dynamics are hierarchically structured with continental-level effects that are partitioned into three geographic zones. Seasonal populations were initially detected in the southern range, where they experienced multiple large population peaks. All three zones experienced a final peak between late July (southern range) and mid-August to mid-September (transitional zone and northern limits). The southern range expanded by 3% since 1981 and is projected to increase by twofold by 2099 but the areas of other zones are expected to decrease in the future. These changes suggest larger populations may persist at higher latitudes in the future due to reduced low-temperature lethal events during winter. Because H. zea is a highly migratory pest, predicting when populations accumulate in one region can inform synchronous or lagged population development in other regions. We show the value of combining long-term datasets, remotely sensed data, and laboratory findings to inform forecasting of insect pests

Intrusive Traumatic Re-Experiencing Domain (ITRED) – Functional Connectivity Feature Classification by the ENIGMA PTSD Consortium

Background Intrusive Traumatic Re-Experiencing Domain (ITRED) was recently introduced as a novel perspective on posttraumatic psychopathology, proposing to focus research of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on the unique symptoms of intrusive and involuntary re-experiencing of the trauma, namely, intrusive memories, nightmares, and flashbacks. The aim of the present study was to explore ITRED from a neural network connectivity perspective. Methods Data was collected from nine sites taking part in the ENIGMA-PTSD Consortium (n=584) and included itemized PTSD symptoms scores and resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) data. We assessed the utility of rsFC in classifying PTSD, ITRED-only (no PTSD diagnosis), and Trauma-exposed (TE)-only (no PTSD or ITRED) groups using a machine learning approach, examining well-known networks implicated in PTSD. Random forest classification model was built on a training set using cross-validation (CV), and the averaged CV model performance for classification was evaluated using area-under-the-curve (AUC). The model was tested using a fully independent portion of the data (test dataset), and the test AUC was evaluated. Results RsFC signatures differentiated TE-only participants from PTSD and from ITRED-only participants at about 60% accuracy. Conversely, rsFC signatures did not differentiate PTSD from ITRED-only individuals (45% accuracy). Common features differentiating TE-only participants from PTSD and from ITRED-only participants mainly involved default mode network-related pathways. Some unique features, such as connectivity within the frontal-parietal network, differentiated TE-only participants from one group (PTSD or ITRED-only), but to a lesser extent from the other. Conclusion Neural network connectivity supports ITRED as a novel neurobiologically-based approach to classifying post-trauma psychopathology

Natural Distribution of Parasitoids of Larvae of the Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, in Argentina

To develop a better understanding of the natural distribution of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), and to update the knowledge of the incidence of its complex of parasitoids. S. frugiperda, samplings in whorl-stage corn were carried out in provinces of Argentina from 1999 to 2003. S. frugiperda larvae were collected from corn in localities of the provinces of Tucumán, Salta, Jujuy, Santiago del Estero, La Rioja, Córdoba, San Luis, Chaco and Misiones. In each locality 30 corn plants were sampled and only larvae located in those plants were collected. The parasitoids that emerged from S. frugiperda larvae were identified and counted. The abundance of the parasitoids and the parasitism rate were estimated. The S. frugiperda parasitoids collected were Campoletis grioti (Blanchard) (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), Chelonus insularis (Cresson) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), Archytas marmoratus (Townsend) (Diptera Tachinidae) and/or A. incertus (Macquart), Ophion sp. (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), Euplectrus platyhypenae Howard (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), and Incamyia chilensis (Aldrich) (Diptera Tachinidae). C. grioti was the most abundant and frequent during the five-year survey. Similar diversity of parasitoids was obtained in all the provinces, with the exception of I. chilensis and E. platyhypenae that were recovered only in the province of Salta. In the Northwestern region, in Tucumán, C. grioti and species of Archytas were the most abundant and frequent parasitoids. On the contrary, in Salta and Jujuy Ch. insularis was the parasitoid most abundant and frequently recovered. The parasitism rate obtained in Tucumán, Salta and Jujuy provinces were 21.96%, 17.87% and 6.63% respectively with an average of 18.93%. These results demonstrate that hymenopteran and dipteran parasitoids of S. frugiperda occurred differentially throughout the Argentinian provinces and played an important role on the natural control of the S. frugiperda larval population

Mission impossible? Assessing the veracity of a mental health problem as result of a road traffic accident: a preliminary review of UK experts’ practices

The number of people claiming for personal injury after being involved in a road traffic accident (RTA) in the UK continues to soar. In April 2015, the UK Government intervened to implement measures aimed at reducing the prevalence of fraud within such personal injury claims. However, these reforms did not include claims for mental disorder that arise because of a RTA despite being responsible for substantially larger payouts in comparison with claims for whiplash. The present study examines the assessment practice for detecting fraudulent claims of this nature using a mixed methods survey analysing UK medico-legal professionals’ assessment methodologies (N = 37). The findings suggest comprehensively that assessment practices in this field are idiosyncratic. The findings evidence limitations in all aspects of the assessment process from medico-legal assessors being asked to undertake examinations without the presence of medical records to 44% of examiners being unaware of the three types of malingering. The article concludes with recommendations for improving both assessments and the assessment process for assessing RTA claimants in the UK