MOONS : the new Multi-Object Spectrograph for the VLT

MOONS is the new Multi-Object Optical and Near-infrared Spectrograph currently under construction for the Very Large Telescope (VLT) at ESO. This remarkable instrument combines, for the first time, the collecting power of an 8-m telescope, 1000 fibres with individual roboticp ositioners, and both low- and high-resolution simultaneous spectral coverage across the 0.64–1.8 μm wavelength range. This facility will provide the astronomical community with a powerful, world-leading instrument able to serve a wide range of Galactic, extragalactic and cosmological studies. Construction is now proceeding full steam ahead and this overview article presents some of the science goals and the technical description of the MOONS instrument. More detailed information on the MOONS surveys is provided in the other dedicated articles in this Messenger issue.Publisher PD

Intestinal fibrosis is reduced by early elimination of inflammation in a mouse model of IBD: Impact of a “Top‐Down” approach to intestinal fibrosis in mice

Background: The natural history of Crohn's disease follows a path of progression from an inflammatory to a fibrostenosing disease, with most patients requiring surgical resection of fibrotic strictures. Potent antiinflammatory therapies reduce inflammation but do not appear to alter the natural history of intestinal fibrosis. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between intestinal inflammation and fibrogenesis and the impact of a very early “top‐down” interventional approach on fibrosis in vivo. Methods: In this study we removed the inflammatory stimulus from the Salmonella typhimurium mouse model of intestinal fibrosis by eradicating the S. typhimurium infection with levofloxacin at sequential timepoints during the infection. We evaluated the effect of this elimination of the inflammatory stimulus on the natural history of inflammation and fibrosis as determined by gross pathology, histopathology, mRNA expression, and protein expression. Results: Fibrogenesis is preceded by inflammation. Delayed eradication of the inflammatory stimulus by antibiotic treatment represses inflammation without preventing fibrosis. Early intervention significantly ameliorates but does not completely prevent subsequent fibrosis. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that intestinal fibrosis develops despite removal of an inflammatory stimulus and elimination of inflammation. Early intervention ameliorates but does not abolish subsequent fibrosis, suggesting that fibrosis, once initiated, is self‐propagating, suggesting that a very early top‐down interventional approach may have the most impact on fibrostenosing disease. (Inflamm Bowel Dis 2012;)Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90367/1/21812_ftp.pd

Search Filters for Finding Prognostic and Diagnostic Prediction Studies in Medline to Enhance Systematic Reviews

Background: The interest in prognostic reviews is increasing, but to properly review existing evidence an accurate search filer for finding prediction research is needed. The aim of this paper was to validate and update two previously introduced search filters for finding prediction research in Medline: the Ingui filter and the Haynes Broad filter. Methodology/Principal Findings: Based on a hand search of 6 general journals in 2008 we constructed two sets of papers. Set 1 consisted of prediction research papers (n = 71), and set 2 consisted of the remaining papers (n = 1133). Both search filters were validated in two ways, using diagnostic accuracy measures as performance measures. First, we compared studies in set 1 (reference) with studies retrieved by the search strategies as applied in Medline. Second, we compared studies from 4 published systematic reviews (reference) with studies retrieved by the search filter as applied in Medline. Next -using word frequency methods - we constructed an additional search string for finding prediction research. Both search filters were good in identifying clinical prediction models: sensitivity ranged from 0.94 to 1.0 using our hand search as reference, and 0.78 to 0.89 using the systematic reviews as reference. This latter performance measure even increased to around 0.95 (range 0.90 to 0.97) when either search filter was combined with the additional string that we developed. Retrieval rate of explorative prediction research was poor, both using our hand search or our systematic review as reference, and even combined with our additional search string: sensitivity ranged from 0.44 to 0.85. Conclusions/Significance: Explorative prediction research is difficult to find in Medline, using any of the currently available search filters. Yet, application of either the Ingui filter or the Haynes broad filter results in a very low number missed clinical prediction model studie

A mesoscopic lattice model for morphology formation in ternary mixtures with evaporation

We develop a mesoscopic lattice model to study the morphology formation in interacting ternary mixtures with the evaporation of one component. As concrete potential application of our model, we wish to capture morphologies as they are typically arising during the fabrication of organic solar cells. In this context, we consider an evaporating solvent into which two other components are dissolved, as a model for a 2-component coating solution that is drying on a substrate. We propose a 3-spins dynamics to describe the evolution of the three interacting species. As main tool, we use a Monte Carlo Metropolis-based algorithm, with the possibility of varying the system's temperature, mixture composition, interaction strengths, and evaporation kinetics. The main novelty is the structure of the mesoscopic model – a bi-dimensional lattice with periodic boundary conditions, divided into square cells to encode a mesoscopic range interaction among the units. We investigate the effect of the model parameters on the structure of the resulting morphologies. Finally, we compare the results obtained with the mesoscopic model with corresponding ones based on an analogous lattice model with a short range interaction among the units, i.e. when the mesoscopic length scale coincides with the microscopic length scale of the lattice

Planetary Migration and Extrasolar Planets in the 2/1 Mean-Motion Resonance

We analyze the possible relationship between the current orbital elements fits of known exoplanets in the 2/1 mean-motion resonance and the expected orbital configuration due to migration. It is found that, as long as the orbital decay was sufficiently slow to be approximated by an adiabatic process, all captured planets should be in apsidal corotations. In other words, they should show a simultaneous libration of both the resonant angle and the difference in longitudes of pericenter. We present a complete set of corotational solutions for the 2/1 commensurability, including previously known solutions and new results. Comparisons with observed exoplanets show that current orbital fits of three known planetary systems in this resonance are either consistent with apsidal corotations (GJ876 and HD82943) or correspond to bodies with uncertain orbits (HD160691). Finally, we discuss the applicability of these results as a test for the planetary migration hypothesis itself. If all future systems in this commensurability are found to be consistent with corotational solutions, then resonance capture of these bodies through planetary migration is a working hypothesis. Conversely, If any planetary pair is found in a different configuration, then either migration did not occur for those bodies, or it took a different form than currently believed.Comment: Submitted to MNRA

The scattering of small bodies in planetary systems: constraints on the possible orbits of cometary material

The scattering of small bodies by planets is an important dynamical process in planetary systems. We present an analytical model to describe this process using the simplifying assumption that each particle's dynamics is dominated by a single planet at a time. As such the scattering process can be considered as a series of three body problems during each of which the Tisserand parameter with respect to the relevant planet is conserved. This constrains the orbital parameter space into which a particle can be scattered. Such arguments have previously been applied to the process by which comets are scattered to the inner Solar System from the Kuiper belt. Our analysis generalises this for an arbitrary planetary system. For particles scattered from an outer belt directly along a chain of planets, based on the initial value of the Tisserand parameter, we find that it is possible to (i) determine which planets can eject the particles from the system, (ii) define a minimum stellar distance to which particles can be scattered, and (iii) constrain range of particle inclinations (and hence the disc height) at different distances. Applying this to the Solar System, we determine that the planets are close to optimally separated for scattering particles between them. Concerning warm dust found around stars that also have Kuiper belt analogues, we show that, if there is to be a dynamical link between the outer and inner regions, then certain architectures for the intervening planetary system are incapable of producing the observations. Furthermore we show that for certain planetary systems, comets can be scattered from an outer belt, or with fewer constraints, from an Oort cloud analogue, onto star-grazing orbits, in support of a planetary origin to the metal pollution and dustiness of some nearby white dwarfs

Predictive validity of the CriSTAL tool for short-term mortality in older people presenting at Emergency Departments: a prospective study

© 2018, The Author(s). Abstract: To determine the validity of the Australian clinical prediction tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CRISTAL) based on objective clinical criteria to accurately identify risk of death within 3 months of admission among older patients. Methods: Prospective study of ≥ 65 year-olds presenting at emergency departments in five Australian (Aus) and four Danish (DK) hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was used to model factors for death prediction; Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve and calibration with bootstrapping techniques were used to describe predictive accuracy. Results: 2493 patients, with median age 78–80 years (DK–Aus). The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% CI 7.7–8.6 vs. 5.8 95% CI 5.6–5.9) and Danish mean 7.1 (95% CI 6.6–7.5 vs. 5.5 95% CI 5.4–5.6). The model with Fried Frailty score was optimal for the Australian cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (AUROC 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the Danish cohort were AUROC 0.764 with Fried and 0.794 using CFS. The most significant independent predictors of short-term death in both cohorts were advanced malignancy, frailty, male gender and advanced age. CriSTAL’s accuracy was only modest for in-hospital death prediction in either setting. Conclusions: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried’s frailty instrument) has good discriminant power to improve prognostic certainty of short-term mortality for ED physicians in both health systems. This shows promise in enhancing clinician’s confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions

A methodological framework to distinguish spectrum effects from spectrum biases and to assess diagnostic and screening test accuracy for patient populations: Application to the Papanicolaou cervical cancer smear test

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A spectrum effect was defined as differences in the sensitivity or specificity of a diagnostic test according to the patient's characteristics or disease features. A spectrum effect can lead to a spectrum bias when subgroup variations in sensitivity or specificity also affect the likelihood ratios and thus post-test probabilities. We propose and illustrate a methodological framework to distinguish spectrum effects from spectrum biases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were collected for 1781 women having had a cervical smear test and colposcopy followed by biopsy if abnormalities were detected (the reference standard). Logistic models were constructed to evaluate both the sensitivity and specificity, and the likelihood ratios, of the test and to identify factors independently affecting the test's characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For both tests, human papillomavirus test, study setting and age affected sensitivity or specificity of the smear test (spectrum effect), but only human papillomavirus test and study setting modified the likelihood ratios (spectrum bias) for clinical reading, whereas only human papillomavirus test and age modified the likelihood ratios (spectrum bias) for "optimized" interpretation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Fitting sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios simultaneously allows the identification of covariates that independently affect diagnostic or screening test results and distinguishes spectrum effect from spectrum bias. We recommend this approach for the development of new tests, and for reporting test accuracy for different patient populations.</p