A multivariate semiparametric Bayesian spatial modeling framework for hurricane surface wind fields

Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of coastal areas. Numerical ocean models are essential for creating storm surge forecasts for coastal areas. These models are driven primarily by the surface wind forcings. Currently, the gridded wind fields used by ocean models are specified by deterministic formulas that are based on the central pressure and location of the storm center. While these equations incorporate important physical knowledge about the structure of hurricane surface wind fields, they cannot always capture the asymmetric and dynamic nature of a hurricane. A new Bayesian multivariate spatial statistical modeling framework is introduced combining data with physical knowledge about the wind fields to improve the estimation of the wind vectors. Many spatial models assume the data follow a Gaussian distribution. However, this may be overly-restrictive for wind fields data which often display erratic behavior, such as sudden changes in time or space. In this paper we develop a semiparametric multivariate spatial model for these data. Our model builds on the stick-breaking prior, which is frequently used in Bayesian modeling to capture uncertainty in the parametric form of an outcome. The stick-breaking prior is extended to the spatial setting by assigning each location a different, unknown distribution, and smoothing the distributions in space with a series of kernel functions. This semiparametric spatial model is shown to improve prediction compared to usual Bayesian Kriging methods for the wind field of Hurricane Ivan.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS108 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Quantile regression for mixed models with an application to examine blood pressure trends in China

Cardiometabolic diseases have substantially increased in China in the past 20 years and blood pressure is a primary modifiable risk factor. Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we examine blood pressure trends in China from 1991 to 2009, with a concentration on age cohorts and urbanicity. Very large values of blood pressure are of interest, so we model the conditional quantile functions of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. This allows the covariate effects in the middle of the distribution to vary from those in the upper tail, the focal point of our analysis. We join the distributions of systolic and diastolic blood pressure using a copula, which permits the relationships between the covariates and the two responses to share information and enables probabilistic statements about systolic and diastolic blood pressure jointly. Our copula maintains the marginal distributions of the group quantile effects while accounting for within-subject dependence, enabling inference at the population and subject levels. Our population-level regression effects change across quantile level, year and blood pressure type, providing a rich environment for inference. To our knowledge, this is the first quantile function model to explicitly model within-subject autocorrelation and is the first quantile function approach that simultaneously models multivariate conditional response. We find that the association between high blood pressure and living in an urban area has evolved from positive to negative, with the strongest changes occurring in the upper tail. The increase in urbanization over the last twenty years coupled with the transition from the positive association between urbanization and blood pressure in earlier years to a more uniform association with urbanization suggests increasing blood pressure over time throughout China, even in less urbanized areas. Our methods are available in the R package BSquare.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS841 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Quenopodiáceas nuevas o raras para la flora de Marruecos

El resultado de cuatro intensas campañas de exploración florística en el año 2004 por las llanuras subdesérticas más orientales del norte de Marruecos (Guercif y Beni-Snassen principalmente), se ha concretado en el descubrimiento de 12 nuevos taxones de la familia Chenopodiaceae para el Catálogo del N de Marruecos y la ampliación del área de otros ya citados. Además, Atriplex suberecta, Bassia indica y Suaeda aegyptiaca se mencionan por primera vez para el Magreb y, de acuerdo con su origen oriental, se discute su papel colonizador en Marruecos. Se confirma la presencia en Marruecos de Suaeda pruinosa y Salsola zygophylla. Se discute la variabilidad taxonómica de Salsola tetrandra, elemento sáharo-arábigo que, junto a otros géneros y especies nuevos para el Catálogo, como Hammada tamariscifolia y Traganum nudatum, representan una notable introgresión del elemento sahariano en la cuenca baja del Moulouya. Se describe una nueva variedad, Suaeda pruinosa var. prostrata Molero & J.M. Monts.As a result of four intensive campaigns of floristic exploration conducted in 2004 in the easternmost sub-desertic plains of Northern Morocco (mainly Guercif and Beni-Snassen), 12 new taxa in the Chenopodiaceae family have been added to the check-list of the flora of N Morocco and the distribution area of other species already cited has been enlarged. Moreover Atriplex suberecta, Bassia indica and Suaeda aegyptiaca are reported for the first time in the Maghreb and their colonizing role in Morocco is discussed in the light of their oriental origin. The presence in Morocco of Suaeda pruinosa and Salsola zygophylla is confirmed. The taxonomic variability of Salsola tetrandra is discussed. The presence of this Saharo-Arabian element, along with other genera and species that are new to the checklist, such as Hammada tamariscifolia and Traganum nudatum, indicates a noteworthy encroachment of Saharan elements in the lower Moulouya basin. A new variety, Suaeda pruinosa var. prostrata Molero & J.M. Monts., is described.Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología. Programa Nacional de Recursos Naturales REN2002-04478-C03-0

On the origin of the North Pacific arcs

We present a new hypothesis that relates global plate tectonics to the formation of marginal basins, island arcs, spreading ridges and arc-shaped mountain belts around the North Pacific Ocean. According to our model, the ellipsoidal-shaped Paleogene basins of the South China Sea, Parece-Vela Basin, Shikoku Basin, Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk in addition to those of the North American Cordillera can be attributed to the change in plate convergence direction at 42 Ma between the Indoaustralian and Eurasian plates. The new direction of convergence was parallel to the eastern continental margin of Asia and resulted in widespread extension perpendicular to this margin and to the western margin of North America. Both margins form part of a circle parallel to the Indoaustralian-Eurasian direction of convergence

Recull de diferents paràmetres emprats en la qualificació del compost

Peer Reviewe

Is leishmaniosis spreading to northern areas of the Iberian Peninsula? The examples of Lleida (NE Spain) and Andorra

Podeu consultar el llibre complet a: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/46988The entomological and canine leishmaniosis surveys carried out in the northwest of Catalonia and in Andorra in the context of the European project Emerging Diseases in a changing European eNvironment (EDEN) are summarized. The aim of the study was to obtain data on the presence of leishmaniosis in these areas and the spatial distribution of their vectors

Agressivité du Simulium du complexe ornatum (Diptera, Simuliidae) en Catalogne (Espagne). Premiere mention

A l'heure actuelle, en Espagne, même si des Simulies sont incriminées chez l'homme, dans des lésions dues à des insectes hématophages, le lien direct entre ces piqûres et une espèce donnee de Simulie n'avait pas encore été éetabli pour ce pays. Une invasion récente (1993) de ces insectes dans la région de l'Alt Penedès, au nord-est de la province de Tarragone, permet aujourd'hui de combler cette lacune

Is leishmaniasis endemic on the island of Minorca (Spain)?. A human visceral case after living 13 years in Minorca

Ecoepidemiologica studies performed in Minorca (Balearic Islands) seem to show that leishmaniasis is not endemic in this island, even in the presence of the vector. All cases of leishmaniasis in man or dog diagnosed in the island seem to come from other Spanish regions. A recent case of human visceral leishmaniasis in a man who had not left Minorca for 13 years calls into question this assumption or the time that Leishmania may persist asymptomatic in the host

Quantitative RNA-seq Analysis Unveils Osmotic and Thermal Adaptation Mechanisms Relevant for Ectoine Production in Chromohalobacter salexigens

Quantitative RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and the complementary phenotypic assays were implemented to investigate the transcriptional responses of Chromohalobacter salexigens to osmotic and heat stress. These conditions trigger the synthesis of ectoine and hydroxyectoine, two compatible solutes of biotechnological interest. Our findings revealed that both stresses make a significant impact on C. salexigens global physiology. Apart from compatible solute metabolism, the most relevant adaptation mechanisms were related to “oxidative- and protein-folding- stress responses,” “modulation of respiratory chain and related components,” and “ion homeostasis.” A general salt-dependent induction of genes related to the metabolism of ectoines, as well as repression of ectoine degradation genes by temperature, was observed. Different oxidative stress response mechanisms, secondary or primary, were induced at low and high salinity, respectively, and repressed by temperature. A higher sensitivity to H2O2 was observed at high salinity, regardless of temperature. Low salinity induced genes involved in “protein-folding-stress response,” suggesting disturbance of protein homeostasis. Transcriptional shift of genes encoding three types of respiratory NADH dehydrogenases, ATP synthase, quinone pool, Na+/H+ antiporters, and sodium-solute symporters, was observed depending on salinity and temperature, suggesting modulation of the components of the respiratory chain and additional systems involved in the generation of H+ and/or Na+ gradients. Remarkably, the Na+ intracellular content remained constant regardless of salinity and temperature. Disturbance of Na+- and H+-gradients with specific ionophores suggested that both gradients influence ectoine production, but with differences depending on the solute, salinity, and temperature conditions. Flagellum genes were strongly induced by salinity, and further induced by temperature. However, salt-induced cell motility was reduced at high temperature, possibly caused by an alteration of Na+ permeability by temperature, as dependence of motility on Na+-gradient was observed. The transcriptional induction of genes related to the synthesis and transport of siderophores correlated with a higher siderophore production and intracellular iron content only at low salinity. An excess of iron increased hydroxyectoine accumulation by 20% at high salinity. Conversely, it reduced the intracellular content of ectoines by 50% at high salinity plus high temperature. These findings support the relevance of iron homeostasis for osmoadaptation, thermoadaptation and accumulation of ectoines, in C. salexigens.España Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad BIO2015-63949-RJunta de Andalucía P11-CVI-729