Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they mak

Climate change and water in the UK : past changes and future prospects: a climate change report card for water: Working technical paper

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperatures and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to climate change, but over the last fifty years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and the water available for use by people. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. Water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms. Water demand may increase in response to higher summer temperatures, placing additional pressure on water resources. These changes affect many parts of everyday life, emphasising the importance of long-term adaptation that takes these possible changes into account

Dissolved inorganic carbon export from rivers of Great Britain: Spatial distribution and potential catchment-scale controls

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fluxes from the land to ocean have been quantified for many rivers globally. However, CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere from inland waters are quantitatively significant components of the global carbon cycle that are currently poorly constrained. Understanding, the relative contributions of natural and human-impacted processes on the DIC cycle within catchments may provide a basis for developing improved management strategies to mitigate free CO2 concentrations in rivers and subsequent evasion to the atmosphere. Here, a large, internally consistent dataset collected from 41 catchments across Great Britain (GB), accounting for ∼36% of land area (∼83,997 km2) and representative of national land cover, was used to investigate catchment controls on riverine dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), bicarbonate (HCO3−) and free CO2 concentrations, fluxes to the coastal sea and annual yields per unit area of catchment. Estimated DIC flux to sea for the survey catchments was 647 kt DIC yr−1 which represented 69% of the total dissolved carbon flux from these catchments. Generally, those catchments with large proportions of carbonate and sedimentary sandstone were found to deliver greater DIC and HCO3− to the ocean. The calculated mean free CO2 yield for survey catchments (i.e. potential CO2 emission to the atmosphere) was 0.56 t C km−2 yr−1. Regression models demonstrated that whilst river DIC (R2 = 0.77) and HCO3− (R2 = 0.77) concentrations are largely explained by the geology of the landmass, along with a negative correlation to annual precipitation, free CO2 concentrations were strongly linked to catchment macronutrient status. Overall, DIC dominates dissolved C inputs to coastal waters, meaning that estuarine carbon dynamics are sensitive to underlying geology and therefore are likely to be reasonably constant. In contrast, potential losses of carbon to the atmosphere via dissolved CO2, which likely constitute a significant fraction of net terrestrial ecosystem production and hence the national carbon budget, may be amenable to greater direct management via altering patterns of land use

Buffering of recovery from acidification by organic acids

In the United Kingdom, as in other regions of Europe and North America, recent decreases in surface water sulphate concentrations, due to reduced sulphur emissions, have coincided with marked increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. Since many of the compounds comprising DOC are acidic, the resulting increases in organic acidity may have the potential to offset the benefits of a decrease in mineral (sulphate) acidity. To test this, we used a triprotic model of organic acid dissociation to estimate the proportional organic acid buffering of reduced mineral acidity as measured in the 22 lakes and streams monitored by the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network. For an average non-marine sulphate decrease of 30 μeq l− 1 over 15 years from 1988–2003, we estimate that around 28% was counterbalanced by rising strong organic acids, 20% by rising alkalinity (partly attributable to an increase in weak organic acids), 11% by falling inorganic aluminium and 41% by falling non-marine base cations. The situation is complicated by a concurrent decrease in marine ion concentrations, and the impact this may have had on both DOC and acidity, but results clearly demonstrate that organic acid increases have substantially limited the amount of recovery from acidification (in terms of rising alkalinity and falling aluminium) that have resulted from reducing sulphur emissions. The consistency and magnitude of sulphate and organic acid changes are consistent with a causal link between the two, possibly due to the effects of changing acidity, ionic strength and aluminium concentrations on organic matter solubility. If this is the case, then organic acids can be considered effective but partial buffers to acidity change in organic soils, and this mechanism needs to be considered in assessing and modelling recovery from acidification, and in defining realistic reference conditions. However, large spatial variations in the relative magnitude of organic acid and sulphate changes, notably for low-deposition sites in northwestern areas where organic acid increases apparently exceed non-marine sulphate decreases, suggest that additional factors, such as changes in sea-salt deposition and climatic factors, may be required to explain the full magnitude of DOC increases in UK surface waters

Hydrochloric Acid: An Overlooked Driver of Environmental Change

Research on the ecosystem impacts of acidifying pollutants, and measures to control them, has focused almost exclusively on sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) compounds. Hydrochloric acid (HCl), although emitted by coal burning, has been overlooked as a driver of ecosystem change because most of it was considered to redeposit close to emission sources rather than in remote natural ecosystems. Despite receiving little regulatory attention, measures to reduce S emissions, and changes in energy supply, have led to a 95% reduction in United Kingdom HCl emissions within 20 years. Long-term precipitation, surface water, and soil solution data suggest that the near-disappearance of HCl from deposition could account for 30-40% of chemical recovery from acidification during this time, affecting both near-source and remote areas. Because HCl is highly mobile in reducing environments, it is amore potent acidifier of wetlands than S or N, and HCl may have been the major driver of past peatland acidification. Reduced HCl loadings could therefore have affected the peatland carbon cycle, contributing to increases in dissolved organic carbon leaching to surface waters. With many regions increasingly reliant on coal for power generation, HCl should be recognized as a potentially significant constituent of resulting emissions, with distinctive ecosystem impacts

Heavy rainfall impacts on trihalomethane formation in contrasting northwestern European potable waters

There is emerging concern over the impact of extreme events such as heavy rainfall on the quality of water entering the drinking water supply from aboveground sources, as such events are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency in response to climate change. We compared the impact of rainfall events on streamwater quality in four contrasting upland (peatland and mineral soil) and lowland agricultural catchments used to supply drinking water in France (Brittany) and the United Kingdom (North Wales) by analyzing water samples collected before, during, and after specific events. At all four streams, heavy rainfall led to a considerable rise in organic matter concentration ranging from 48 to 158%. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quality, as determined using specific ultraviolet absorbance, changed consistently at all sites during rainfall events, with a greater proportion of aromatic and higher molecular weight compounds following the onset of rainfall. However, the change in DOC quality and quantity did not significantly alter the trihalomethane formation potential. We observed small increases in trihalomethane (THM) generation only at the Welsh peatland and agricultural sites and a small decrease at the Brittany agricultural site. The proportion of brominated THMs in chlorinated waters was positively correlated with bromide/DOC ratio in raw waters for all sites and hydrological conditions. These results provide a first indication of the potential implications for surface-based drinking water resources resulting from expected future increases in rainfall event intensity and extension of dry periods with climate changes

Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Ecosystems

Changing climate is already having an impact on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of freshwater ecosystems, both directly through changes in air temperature and precipitation and indirectly through interaction with other stressors. In future, non-climatic impacts should be reduced if pollutant loadings decrease and surface-water ecosystems are progressively restored. But global warming is very likely to continue, even if greenhouse gases and aerosols are kept constant at year 2000 levels, giving rise to a minimum projected average further increase in air temperature by 0.6°C by the end of this century (IPCC 2007). Changes in the characteristics of freshwater ecosystems as illustrated here are likely to continue and will become much more pronounced as greenhouse gas emissions rise and ecosystems cross critical thresholds that cause abrupt nonlinear system shifts to occur

Data from: Widespread increases in iron concentration in European and North American freshwaters

Recent reports of increasing iron (Fe) concentrations in freshwaters are of concern, given the fundamental role of Fe in biogeochemical processes. Still, little is known about the frequency and geographical distribution of Fe trends, or about the underlying drivers. We analyzed temporal trends of Fe concentrations across 340 water bodies distributed over 10 countries in northern Europe and North America in order to gain a clearer understanding of where, to what extent, and why Fe concentrations are on the rise. We found that Fe concentrations have significantly increased in 28% of sites, and decreased in 4%, with most positive trends located in northern Europe. Regions with rising Fe concentrations tend to coincide with those with organic carbon (OC) increases. Hence, Fe and OC increases may not be directly mechanistically linked, but may nevertheless be responding to common regional-scale drivers such as declining sulfur deposition or hydrological changes. A role of hydrological factors was supported by covarying trends in Fe and dissolved silica, as these elements tend to stem from similar soil depths. A positive relationship between Fe increases and conifer cover suggests that changing land-use and expanded forestry could have contributed to enhanced Fe export, although increases were also observed in non-forested areas. We conclude that the phenomenon of increasing Fe concentrations is widespread, especially in northern Europe, with potentially significant implications for wider ecosystem biogeochemistry, and for the current browning of freshwaters

Fe Trends

The data file (FeTrends.xlxs) contains data for the 340 water bodies (headwater streams, higher-order streams, lakes and river mouths) included in the Fe trends study (Björnerås et al. 2017). The data has been collected from various monitoring programs and initiatives in 10 countries and include time series of iron (Fe), organic carbon (OC), silica (Si) and sulfate (SO4) concentrations in surface waters spanning from 1990 to 2013. Catchment variables, such as catchment size and land-use, are also included in the dataset, as well as climate data (precipitation and air temperature)