Validating AU Microscopii d with Transit Timing Variations

AU Mic is a young (22 Myr) nearby exoplanetary system that exhibits excess TTVs that cannot be accounted for by the two known transiting planets nor stellar activity. We present the statistical "validation" of the tentative planet AU Mic d (even though there are examples of "confirmed" planets with ambiguous orbital periods). We add 18 new transits and nine midpoint times in an updated TTV analysis to prior work. We perform the joint modeling of transit light curves using EXOFASTv2 and extract the transit midpoint times. Next, we construct an O-C diagram and use Exo-Striker to model the TTVs. We generate TTV log-likelihood periodograms to explore possible solutions for the period of planet d and then follow those up with detailed TTV and RV MCMC modeling and stability tests. We find several candidate periods for AU Mic d, all of which are near resonances with AU Mic b and c of varying order. Based on our model comparisons, the most-favored orbital period of AU Mic d is 12.73596+/-0.00793 days (T_{C,d}=2458340.55781+/-0.11641 BJD), which puts the three planets near a 4:6:9 mean-motion orbital resonance. The mass for d is 1.053+/-0.511 M_E, making this planet Earth-like in mass. If confirmed, AU Mic d would be the first known Earth-mass planet orbiting a young star and would provide a valuable opportunity in probing a young terrestrial planet's atmosphere. Additional TTV observation of the AU Mic system are needed to further constrain the planetary masses, search for possible transits of AU Mic d, and detect possible additional planets beyond AU Mic c.Comment: 89 pages, 35 figures, 34 tables. Redid EXOFASTv2 transit modeling to recover more reasonable stellar posteriors, so redid Exo-Striker TTV modeling for consistency. Despite these changes, the overall results remain unchanged: the 12-7-day case is still the most favored. Submitted to AAS Journals on 2023 Feb 9t

Validating AU Microscopii d with Transit Timing Variations

AU Mic is a young (22 Myr), nearby exoplanetary system that exhibits excess transit timing variations (TTVs) that cannot be accounted for by the two known transiting planets nor stellar activity. We present the statistical “validation” of the tentative planet AU Mic d (even though there are examples of “confirmed” planets with ambiguous orbital periods). We add 18 new transits and nine midpoint times in an updated TTV analysis to prior work. We perform the joint modeling of transit light curves using EXOFASTv2 and extract the transit midpoint times. Next, we construct an O − C diagram and use Exo-Striker to model the TTVs. We generate TTV log-likelihood periodograms to explore possible solutions for d’s period, then follow those up with detailed TTV and radial velocity Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling and stability tests. We find several candidate periods for AU Mic d, all of which are near resonances with AU Mic b and c of varying order. Based on our model comparisons, the most-favored orbital period of AU Mic d is 12.73596 ± 0.00793 days ( T _C _,d = 2458340.55781 ± 0.11641 BJD), which puts the three planets near 4:6:9 mean-motion resonance. The mass for d is 1.053 ± 0.511 M _⊕ , making this planet Earth-like in mass. If confirmed, AU Mic d would be the first known Earth-mass planet orbiting a young star and would provide a valuable opportunity in probing a young terrestrial planet’s atmosphere. Additional TTV observations of the AU Mic system are needed to further constrain the planetary masses, search for possible transits of AU Mic d, and detect possible additional planets beyond AU Mic c

Global overview of the management of acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic (CHOLECOVID study)

Background: This study provides a global overview of the management of patients with acute cholecystitis during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: CHOLECOVID is an international, multicentre, observational comparative study of patients admitted to hospital with acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on management were collected for a 2-month study interval coincident with the WHO declaration of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and compared with an equivalent pre-pandemic time interval. Mediation analysis examined the influence of SARS-COV-2 infection on 30-day mortality. Results: This study collected data on 9783 patients with acute cholecystitis admitted to 247 hospitals across the world. The pandemic was associated with reduced availability of surgical workforce and operating facilities globally, a significant shift to worse severity of disease, and increased use of conservative management. There was a reduction (both absolute and proportionate) in the number of patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 3095 patients (56.2 per cent) pre-pandemic to 1998 patients (46.2 per cent) during the pandemic but there was no difference in 30-day all-cause mortality after cholecystectomy comparing the pre-pandemic interval with the pandemic (13 patients (0.4 per cent) pre-pandemic to 13 patients (0.6 per cent) pandemic; P = 0.355). In mediation analysis, an admission with acute cholecystitis during the pandemic was associated with a non-significant increased risk of death (OR 1.29, 95 per cent c.i. 0.93 to 1.79, P = 0.121). Conclusion: CHOLECOVID provides a unique overview of the treatment of patients with cholecystitis across the globe during the first months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The study highlights the need for system resilience in retention of elective surgical activity. Cholecystectomy was associated with a low risk of mortality and deferral of treatment results in an increase in avoidable morbidity that represents the non-COVID cost of this pandemic

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

Breast cancer management pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the UK ‘Alert Level 4’ phase of the B-MaP-C study

Abstract: Background: The B-MaP-C study aimed to determine alterations to breast cancer (BC) management during the peak transmission period of the UK COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of these treatment decisions. Methods: This was a national cohort study of patients with early BC undergoing multidisciplinary team (MDT)-guided treatment recommendations during the pandemic, designated ‘standard’ or ‘COVID-altered’, in the preoperative, operative and post-operative setting. Findings: Of 3776 patients (from 64 UK units) in the study, 2246 (59%) had ‘COVID-altered’ management. ‘Bridging’ endocrine therapy was used (n = 951) where theatre capacity was reduced. There was increasing access to COVID-19 low-risk theatres during the study period (59%). In line with national guidance, immediate breast reconstruction was avoided (n = 299). Where adjuvant chemotherapy was omitted (n = 81), the median benefit was only 3% (IQR 2–9%) using ‘NHS Predict’. There was the rapid adoption of new evidence-based hypofractionated radiotherapy (n = 781, from 46 units). Only 14 patients (1%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during their treatment journey. Conclusions: The majority of ‘COVID-altered’ management decisions were largely in line with pre-COVID evidence-based guidelines, implying that breast cancer survival outcomes are unlikely to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, in this study, the potential impact of delays to BC presentation or diagnosis remains unknown

Flares, Rotation, and Planets of the AU Mic System from TESS Observations

AU Mic is a young (∼24 Myr), pre-main-sequence M dwarf star that was observed in the first month of science observations of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and reobserved 2 years later. This target has photometric variability from a variety of sources that is readily apparent in the TESS light curves; spots induce modulation in the light curve, flares are present throughout (manifesting as sharp rises with slow exponential decay phases), and transits of AU Mic b may be seen by eye as dips in the light curve. We present a combined analysis of both TESS Sector 1 and Sector 27 AU Mic light curves including the new 20 s cadence data from TESS Year 3. We compare flare rates between both observations and analyze the spot evolution, showing that the activity levels increase slightly from Sector 1 to Sector 27. Furthermore, the 20 s data collection allows us to detect more flares, smaller flares, and better resolve flare morphology in white light as compared to the 2 minute data collection mode. We also refine the parameters for AU Mic b by fitting three additional transits of AU Mic b from Sector 27 using a model that includes stellar activity. We show that the transits exhibit clear transit timing variations with an amplitude of ∼80 s. We also detect three transits of a 2.8 R ⊕ planet, AU Mic c, which has a period of 18.86 days

Transit Timing Variations for AU Microscopii b & c

We explore the transit timing variations (TTVs) of the young (22 Myr) nearby AU Mic planetary system. For AU Mic b, we introduce three Spitzer (4.5 $\mu$m) transits, five TESS transits, 11 LCO transits, one PEST transit, one Brierfield transit, and two transit timing measurements from Rossiter-McLaughlin observations; for AU Mic c, we introduce three TESS transits. We present two independent TTV analyses. First, we use EXOFASTv2 to jointly model the Spitzer and ground-based transits and to obtain the midpoint transit times. We then construct an O--C diagram and model the TTVs with Exo-Striker. Second, we reproduce our results with an independent photodynamical analysis. We recover a TTV mass for AU Mic c of 10.8$^{+2.3}_{-2.2}$ M$_{E}$. We compare the TTV-derived constraints to a recent radial-velocity (RV) mass determination. We also observe excess TTVs that do not appear to be consistent with the dynamical interactions of b and c alone, and do not appear to be due to spots or flares. Thus, we present a hypothetical non-transiting "middle-d" candidate exoplanet that is consistent with the observed TTVs, the candidate RV signal, and would establish the AU Mic system as a compact resonant multi-planet chain in a 4:6:9 period commensurability. These results demonstrate that the AU Mic planetary system is dynamically interacting producing detectable TTVs, and the implied orbital dynamics may inform the formation mechanisms for this young system. We recommend future RV and TTV observations of AU Mic b and c to further constrain the masses and to confirm the existence of possible additional planet(s).Comment: Corrected typos; revised Section 3, 4, and 5 to reflect reanalysis, results unchanged. Submitted to AAS Journals Nov 11th, 2020; favorable referee report received Jan 3rd; final draft accepted for publication in the AJ Apr 19t