Life cycle assessment of novel biomethane systems

Climate mitigation and supply of renewable energy are global challenges. The main cause of climate change is anthropogenic activities, including consumption of fossil energy sources and land use change. Biomethane, a biomass-derived renewable energy carrier, is interchangeable with fossil-based natural gas and can provide energy services (e.g. heat, electricity and vehicle fuel) and high-value products such as chemicals. However, the availability of feedstock suitable for anaerobic digestion, the limited grid infrastructure in certain regions and problems relating to storage and distribution are barriers to increased deployment of biomethane systems. This thesis aims to provide decision support for the development and implementation of future biomethane systems, by describing the energy performance and climate impact of some promising novel technologies related to biomethane production, conversion of biomethane to high-value products and biomethane distribution in a life cycle perspective. Anaerobic digestion of maize and pyrolysis of willow for production of biomethane were assessed and compared, while gas-to-liquid (GTL) technologies were studied as potential routes for conversion of biomethane to liquid transportation fuels or platform chemicals. Gas hydrates were assessed as a means of biomethane distribution. The results showed that transition from maize-based anaerobic digestion to willowbased pyrolysis for biomethane production improved energy performance (higher external energy ratio) and environmental performance (lower climate impact), mainly due to buildup of soil organic carbon and use of biochar as a soil amendment or as an energy source to replace fossil coal. Use of biomethane for production of dimethyl ether as a GTL fuel was competitive relative to the conventional compressed biomethane system regarding energy performance and climate impact. Formation and disassociation of gas hydrates was associated with high energy use, and thus technological development is required to overcome the high primary energy inputs and related high climate impact of gas hydrate distribution

Screening role of complete blood cell count indices and C reactive protein in patients who are symptomatic for COVID-19

INTRODUCTION: Diagnosis of COVID-19 is through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or typical involvement of the lung by the virus in computed tomography (CT) scan. However, PCR is not always available, and also CT scan has a high dose of radiation. This study was performed to find the role of complete blood cell (CBC) indices and qualitative C-reactive protein (CRP) in screening of symptomatic patients.MATERIAL AND METHODS: A diagnostic accuracy study was performed on symptomatic cases in Abadan. Four stepwise logistic regression models were designed that the outcomes were PCR positivity, CT scan positivity, PCR and CT scan positivity, and COVID-19 positivity (i.e., PCR or CT scan positivity). Post-estimation receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was performed to report the area under the curve (AUC).RESULTS: A total of 104 patients were studied. The most accurate model was for the prediction of CT scan positivity (AUC = 0.874) in which the predictors were age [odds ratio (OR) =1.063] and CRP (OR = 2.661 for each plus of positivity). The second accurate model was for the prediction of COVID-19 positivity (AUC = 0.828) in which the predictors were white blood cell count (OR = 0.735 for every 1000 counts per μL) and neutrophil per lymphocyte ratio (OR = 1.248).CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of CRP are associated with and predictor of lung involvement in COVID-19 infection. CRP qualitative levels can be measured before a CT scan if there is no other indication for imaging

Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension based on ACC/AHA versus JNC7 guidelines in the PERSIAN cohort study

In this cross-sectional population-based study, we used the baseline data of the Prospective Epidemiologic Research Studies in IrAN cohort study collected in Iran from 2014 to 2020. The main outcomes were the prevalence of hypertension and proportion of awareness, treatment, and control based on the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline compared to the seventh report of the Joint National Committee (JNC7). Of the total of 163,770 participants, aged 35–70 years, 55.2% were female. The sex-age standardized prevalence of hypertension was 22.3% (95% CI 20.6, 24.1) based on the JNC7 guideline and 36.5% (31.1, 41.8) based on the ACC/AHA guideline. A total of 24,312 participants [14.1% (10.1, 18.1)] were newly diagnosed based on the ACC/AHA guideline. Compared to adults diagnosed with hypertension based on the JNC7 guideline, the newly diagnosed participants were mainly young literate males who had low levels of risk factors and were free from conventional comorbidities of hypertension. About 30.7% (25.9, 35.4) of them (4.3% of the entire population) were eligible for pharmacologic intervention based on the ACC/AHA guideline. Implementation of the new guideline may impose additional burden on health systems. However, early detection and management of elevated blood pressure may reduce the ultimate burden of hypertension in Iran

Opium use and risk of bladder cancer : A multi-centre case-referent study in Iran

Background: Bladder cancer (BC) is the 10th most common type of cancer worldwide and the fourth most common type of cancer in Iran. Opium use is considered as one of the risk factors for BC. We aim to assess the association between various parameters of opium use, which in Iran is mainly ingested or smoked in various forms, and the risk of BC. Method: In this multi-centre case-referent study in Iran, 717 BC cases and 3477 referents were recruited to the study from May 2017 until July 2020. Detailed histories of opium use (duration, amount, frequency) and potential confounders were collected by trained interviewers. Multivariable unconditional logistic regression models were used to measure adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The ORs were adjusted for age, gender, place of residence and pack-years of cigarette smoking. Results: Regular opium consumption was associated with an increased risk of BC (OR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.8, 4.3) compared with subjects who never used opium. Compared with continuous users, the risk decreased to one-Third for those who stopped opium more than 10 years ago. The adjusted OR for those who used both crude opium (teriak) and opium juice was 7.4 (95% CI: 4.1, 13.3). There was a joint effect of opium and tobacco (OR for users of both opium and tobacco 7.7, 95% CI: 6.0, 9.7). Conclusions: Regular opium use is associated with an approximately 4-fold risk for BC. The OR decreases along with the increasing time since stopping opium use.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in North Africa and Middle East countries, 1990 to 2019: Results from the GBD study 2019

ObjectiveTo provide estimates on the regional and national burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019 in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region.Methods and materialsThe Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data were used. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), death, incidence, and prevalence rates were categorized by sex and age groups in the NAME region, in 21 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Decomposition analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of responsible factors in the emergence of new cases. Data are presented as point estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsIn the NAME region, TBL cancer caused 15,396 and 57,114 deaths in women and men, respectively, in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased by 0.7% (95% UI -20.6 to 24.1) and reached 16.8 per 100,000 (14.9 to 19.0) in 2019. All the age-standardized indices had a decreasing trend in men and an increasing trend in women from 1990 to 2019. Turkey (34.9 per 100,000 [27.6 to 43.5]) and Sudan (8.0 per 100,000 [5.2 to 12.5]) had the highest and lowest age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) in 2019, respectively. The highest and lowest absolute slopes of change in ASPR, from 1990 to 2019, were seen in Bahrain (-50.0% (-63.6 to -31.7)) and the United Arab Emirates (-1.2% (-34.1 to 53.8)), respectively. The number of deaths attributable to risk factors was 58,816 (51,709 to 67,323) in 2019 and increased by 136.5%. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth and age structure change positively contributed to new incident cases. More than 80% of DALYs could be decreased by controlling risk factors, particularly tobacco use.ConclusionThe incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of TBL cancer increased, and the death rate remained unchanged from 1990 to 2019. All the indices and contribution of risk factors decreased in men but increased in women. Tobacco is still the leading risk factor. Early diagnosis and tobacco cessation policies should be improved

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Comparison of Biogas and Bioethanol for Sweden Transportation Fleet

Biofuels were recently seen as a solution for the predicaments of our age; the “energy crisis” and the” climate change”. Today biofuels derived from food crops are a subject of debate for food hunger of the world’s poor and one of the main reasons of increased food prices. Latest studies also show that biofuels have no significant reduction in energy consumption and emissions. Today many attentions have been focused on biofuels extracted from biomass of different residual material such as agriculture residuals. Sweden produces biogas from different sources and also is one of the main users of Brazil’s bioethanol. In this report we aim to study two biofuel alternatives for Sweden transportation fleet; biogas from sugar beet residues in Sweden and imported bioethanol from sugarcanes from Brazil. The study is based on a life-cycle assessment (LCA) of the two mentioned biofuels. Three main units of agriculture, industrial production process and transportation is studied in the life cycle of the mentioned fuels. Based on energy inputs and emissions biogas from sugar beets in Sweden is a better alternative for Sweden transportation fleet. Bioethanol from Brazil is a crop-based fuel and highly energy consuming in the agricultural operations and industrial production process. Biogas fuel production requires increase in production capacity and technological developments