The Two Types of Society: Computationally Revealing Recurrent Social Formations and Their Evolutionary Trajectories

Comparative social science has a long history of attempts to classify societies and cultures in terms of shared characteristics. However, only recently has it become feasible to conduct quantitative analysis of large historical datasets to mathematically approach the study of social complexity and classify shared societal characteristics. Such methods have the potential to identify recurrent social formations in human societies and contribute to social evolutionary theory. However, in order to achieve this potential, repeated studies are needed to assess the robustness of results to changing methods and data sets. Using an improved derivative of the Seshat: Global History Databank, we perform a clustering analysis of 271 past societies from sampling points across the globe to study plausible categorizations inherent in the data. Analysis indicates that the best fit to Seshat data is five subclusters existing as part of two clearly delineated superclusters (that is, two broad “types” of society in terms of social-ecological configuration). Our results add weight to the idea that human societies form recurrent social formations by replicating previous studies with different methods and data. Our results also contribute nuance to previously established measures of social complexity, illustrate diverse trajectories of change, and shed further light on the finite bounds of human social diversity

The Two Types of Society: Computationally Revealing Recurrent Social Formations and Their Evolutionary Trajectories

Comparative social science has a long history of attempts to classify societies and cultures in terms of shared characteristics. However, only recently has it become feasible to conduct quantitative analysis of large historical datasets to mathematically approach the study of social complexity and classify shared societal characteristics. Such methods have the potential to identify recurrent social formations in human societies and contribute to social evolutionary theory. However, in order to achieve this potential, repeated studies are needed to assess the robustness of results to changing methods and data sets. Using an improved derivative of the Seshat: Global History Databank, we perform a clustering analysis of 271 past societies from sampling points across the globe to study plausible categorizations inherent in the data. Analysis indicates that the best fit to Seshat data is five subclusters existing as part of two clearly delineated superclusters (that is, two broad “types” of society in terms of social-ecological configuration). Our results add weight to the idea that human societies form recurrent social formations by replicating previous studies with different methods and data. Our results also contribute nuance to previously established measures of social complexity, illustrate diverse trajectories of change, and shed further light on the finite bounds of human social diversity

Humans in Algorithms, Algorithms in Humans: Understanding Cooperation and Creating Social AI with Causal Generative Models

Cooperation is the hallmark human trait which has allowed us to congregate into the vast, continent-sprawling societies we live in today. Yet, the precise social, environmental, and cognitive mechanisms which enable this cooperation are not fully understood. Toward this, lucrative insights have been borne through the use of formal computational models of socio-cognitive phenomena: In simulating our own cooperative behavior, we can better deduce the exact factors which cause it. The combined knowledge of these factors and ability to computationally simulate them allows us to further two goals: First, it empowers us with the knowledge of how to modify our social systems to better human well-being and promote more sustainable, equitable, and compassionate societies. Second, the computational aspect allows us to more directly create artificial, socially competent companions—whether robotic or entirely digital—to cooperate with us in the real world in achieving the first goal. In this thesis, I contribute to the development of artificial social cognition by examining two case studies of cooperation dilemmas: a game of social team cooperation inference known as stag-hunt, and a stylized cooperative irrigation system. Specifically, I show causal, generative models encoding hypotheses on actual mechanisms in the human mind which are able to outperform the extant state-of-the-art models in both of these cases. In the second case, I show how models like this can be automatically discovered through an algorithm known as evolutionary model discovery, greatly expediting the deduction of new models in similar domains. The results have implications not only for understanding the dynamics of human teaming and irrigation systems (the humans in algorithms), but also broader human socio-cognitive mechanisms contributing to cooperation (the algorithms in humans)—all while simultaneously allowing these mechanisms to be encoded into socially competent AI

Inverse cubic law of index fluctuation distribution in Indian markets

One of the principal statistical features characterizing the activity in financial markets is the distribution of fluctuations in market indicators such as the index. While the developed stock markets, e.g., the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) have been found to show heavy-tailed return distribution with a characteristic power-law exponent, the universality of such behavior has been debated, particularly in regard to emerging markets. Here we investigate the distribution of several indices from the Indian financial market, one of the largest emerging markets in the world. We have used tick-by-tick data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE), as well as, daily closing data from both NSE and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). We find that the cumulative distributions of index returns have long tails consistent with a power-law having exponent \alpha \approx 3, at time-scales of both 1 min and 1 day. This ``inverse cubic law'' is quantitatively similar to what has been observed in developed markets, thereby providing strong evidence of universality in the behavior of market fluctuations.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, final version, to appear in Physica A, 1 figure added, appendix elongated to describe TE statistic

Nonextensive statistical features of the Polish stock market fluctuations

The statistics of return distributions on various time scales constitutes one of the most informative characteristics of the financial dynamics. Here we present a systematic study of such characteristics for the Polish stock market index WIG20 over the period 04.01.1999 - 31.10.2005 for the time lags ranging from one minute up to one hour. This market is commonly classified as emerging. Still on the shortest time scales studied we find that the tails of the return distributions are consistent with the inverse cubic power-law, as identified previously for majority of the mature markets. Within the time scales studied a quick and considerable departure from this law towards a Gaussian can however be traced. Interestingly, all the forms of the distributions observed can be comprised by the single $q$-Gaussians which provide a satisfactory and at the same time compact representation of the distribution of return fluctuations over all magnitudes of their variation. The corresponding nonextensivity parameter $q$ is found to systematically decrease when increasing the time scales.Comment: 14 pages. Physica A in prin

p3k14c, a synthetic global database of archaeological radiocarbon dates.

Archaeologists increasingly use large radiocarbon databases to model prehistoric human demography (also termed paleo-demography). Numerous independent projects, funded over the past decade, have assembled such databases from multiple regions of the world. These data provide unprecedented potential for comparative research on human population ecology and the evolution of social-ecological systems across the Earth. However, these databases have been developed using different sample selection criteria, which has resulted in interoperability issues for global-scale, comparative paleo-demographic research and integration with paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental data. We present a synthetic, global-scale archaeological radiocarbon database composed of 180,070 radiocarbon dates that have been cleaned according to a standardized sample selection criteria. This database increases the reusability of archaeological radiocarbon data and streamlines quality control assessments for various types of paleo-demographic research. As part of an assessment of data quality, we conduct two analyses of sampling bias in the global database at multiple scales. This database is ideal for paleo-demographic research focused on dates-as-data, bayesian modeling, or summed probability distribution methodologies

Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) Conceptual Design Report Volume 2: The Physics Program for DUNE at LBNF

The Physics Program for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) at the Fermilab Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) is described