A numerical model study of the effects of interannual timescale wave propagation on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We investigate processes leading to uncertainty in forecasts of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). A climate model is used to supply initial conditions for ensemble simulations in which members initially have identical ocean states but perturbed atmosphere states. Baroclinic transports diverge on interannual timescales even though the ocean is not eddy-permitting. Interannual fluctuations of the model AMOC in the subtropical gyre are caused by westward propagating Rossby waves. Divergence of the predicted AMOC with time occurs because the waves develop different phases in different ensemble members predominantly due to differences in eastern boundary windstress curl. These windstress fluctuations communicate with interior ocean transports via modifications to the vertical velocity and the vortex stretching term dw/dz. Consequently, errors propagate westwards resulting in longer predictability times in the interior ocean compared with the eastern boundary. Another source of divergence is transport anomalies propagating along the Gulf Stream (and other boundary currents). The propagation mechanism seems to be predominantly advection by mean currents, and we show that the arrival of westward propagating waves can trigger development of these anomalies. The mean state of the AMOC has a small effect on interannual predictability in the subtropical gyre, most likely because eastern boundary windstress curl predictability is not strongly dependent on the state of the AMOC in the subtropics. Eastern boundary windstress curl was more predictable at 45{degree sign}N when the AMOC was in a strongly decreasing state, but, unlike at 30{degree sign}N, no mechanism was found linking windstress curl fluctuations with deep transports

A “cold path” for the Gulf Stream–troposphere connection

The mechanism by which the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature (SST) front anchors a band of precipitation on its warm edge is still a matter of debate, and little is known about how synoptic activity contributes to the mean state. In the present study, the influence of the SST front on precipitation is investigated during the course of a single extratropical cyclone using a regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The comparison of a control run with a simulation in which SST gradients were smoothed brought the following conclusions: a band of precipitation is reproduced for a single extratropical cyclone, and the response to the SST gradient is dominated by a change of convective precipitation in the cold sector of the storm. Several climatological features described by previous studies, such as surface wind convergence on the warm edge or a meridional circulation cell across the SST front, are also reproduced at synoptic time scales in the cold sector. Based on these results, a simple boundary layer model is proposed to explain the convective and dynamical response to the SST gradient in the cold sector. In this model, cold and dry air parcels acquire more buoyancy over a sharp SST gradient and become more convectively unstable. The convection sets a pressure anomaly over the entire depth of the boundary layer that drives wind convergence. This case study offers a new pathway by which the SST gradient can anchor a climatological band of precipitation

Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in the Kiel Climate Model

Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), the two leading decadal modes of observed Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature (SST) variability, are investigated in a multi-millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). It is shown that the two phenomena are independent modes in the model and can be easily separated by Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis of model SST. PDVrelated variability covers the whole North Pacific with strong signals in both the mid-latitude North Pacific and the western Tropical Pacific. Strong signals are also simulated in the eastern Indian Ocean Sector. PDV’s memory, however, resides in the North Pacific and is linked to the subtropical gyre. The AMV mechanism is related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A stochastic mechanism applies to both PDV and AMV

Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific

The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea-ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea-ice and atmosphere components. Here we show that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. We argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts

Impact of ocean resolution on coupled air-sea fluxes and large-scale climate

Air-sea fluxes are a crucial component in the energetics of the global climate system. The largest air-sea fluxes occur in regions of high sea surface temperature variability, such as ocean boundary, frontal currents and eddies. In this paper we explore the importance of ocean model resolution to resolve air-sea flux relationships in these areas. We examine the sea surface temperature-wind stress relationship in high-pass filtered observations and two versions of the Met Office climate model with eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving ocean resolutions. Eddy-resolving resolution shows marginal improvement in the relationship over eddy-permitting resolution. However, by focussing on the North Atlantic we show that the eddy-resolving model has significant enhancement of latent heat loss over the North Atlantic Current region, a long-standing model bias. While eddy-resolving resolution does not change the air-sea flux relationship at small scale, the impact on the mean state has important implications for the reliability of future climate projections

Comparison of ocean deoxygenation between CMIP models and an observational dataset in the North Pacific from 1958 to 2005

This study investigated the relationship between the observed and simulated dissolved oxygen (O2) inventory changes in the North Pacific by analyzing an observational dataset and the outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) between 1958 and 2005. A total of 204 ensembles from 20 models were analyzed. Many of the models in the North Pacific subarctic region have higher climatological O2 concentrations than observed at deeper water depths. Therefore, the negative trend of O2 inventories tends to be larger, and in fact, several model ensemble members have a larger negative trend in O2 inventories than observed. The variability among model ensemble members is more influenced by the uncertainty due to internal variability than by the uncertainty resulting from model dependency. An inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis revealed that the different simulated magnitudes of the negative O2 trend is closely associated with the first EOF mode, and ensemble members with strong negative trends are characterized by large oxygen reduction in the subarctic North Pacific, especially around the boundaries between the North Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Okhotsk as well as the Bering Seas. The modeled strong O2 decrease in the subarctic North Pacific is consistent with the spatial pattern of the observed O2 trend. Further analysis of climate models indicated that the O2 decrease in the subarctic region was primarily caused by physical factors. This conclusion is supported by the significantly high correlation is present between the potential temperature and O2 inventory trend in the subarctic region, whereas an insignificant correlation coefficient is present between dissolved organic carbon and the O2 inventory trend. However, the observations have a larger ratio of O2 inventory trend to temperature trend than any of the ensembles, and thus the relationship between O2 and temperature change in the subarctic North Pacific seen in the CMIP5/6 simulations is not exact

Shinichi Hisamatsu - Die Philosophie des Erwachens

Die buddhistische Philosophie Hisamatsus, der das »Erwachen des wahren Selbst« zugrunde liegt, kritisiert einerseits die gewöhnliche Philosophie, die auf der Vernunft gründet, andererseits die Religionen, die auf dem Glauben gründen. Nach der knappen Darstellung seines Lebens im 1. Abschnitt versucht dieser Aufsatz, im 2. Abschnitt die Stellung der Religion in seiner Philosophie, im 3. Abschnitt im Vergleich mit Kierkegaard seine Einstellung zum christlichen Glauben und im 4. Abschnitt unter Bezugnahme auf seine Interpretation der Philosophie des Kegon-Buddhismus das Charakteristische dessen, was er »wahres Selbst« nennt, herauszuarbeiten. Er meint: Das wahre Selbst ist substanzlos. Wenn das wahre Selbst erwacht und man dessen inne wird, dass das Ich keine Substanz ist, entsteht da der Standpunkt, auf dem man die Dinge von seinen eigenen Interessen befreit so sehen kann, wie sie in Wahrheit sind