Impact of Climate Change on Hydrochemical Processes at Two High-Elevation Forested Watersheds in the Southern Appalachians, United States

Climate change increasingly affects primary productivity and biogeochemical cycles in forest ecosystems at local and global scales. To predict change in vegetation, soil, and hydrologic processes, we applied an integrated biogeochemical model Photosynthesis-EvapoTranspration and BioGeoChemistry (PnET-BGC) to two high-elevation forested watersheds in the southern Appalachians in the US under representative (or radiative) concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We investigated seasonal variability of the changes from current (1986–2015) to future climate scenarios (2071–2100) for important biogeochemical processes/states; identified change points for biogeochemical variables from 1931 to 2100 that indicate potential regime shifts; and compared the climate change impacts of a lower-elevation watershed (WS18) with a higher-elevation watershed (WS27) at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, United States. We find that gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), transpiration, nitrogen mineralization, and streamflow are projected to increase, while soil base saturation, and base cation concentration and ANC of streamwater are projected to decrease at the annual scale but with strong seasonal variability under a changing climate, showing the general trend of acidification of soil and streamwater despite an increase in primary productivity. The predicted changes show distinct contrasts between lower and higher elevations. Climate change is predicted to have larger impact on soil processes at the lower elevation watershed and on vegetation processes at the higher elevation watershed. We also detect five change points of the first principal component of 17 key biogeochemical variables simulated with PnET-BGC between 1931 and 2100, with the last change point projected to occur 20 years earlier under RCP8.5 (2059 at WS18 and WS27) than under RCP4.5 (2079 at WS18 and 2074 at WS27) at both watersheds. The change points occurred earlier at WS18 than at WS27 in the 1980s and 2010s but in the future are projected to occur earlier in WS27 (2074) than WS18 (2079) under RCP4.5, implying that changes in biogeochemical cycles in vegetation, soil, and streams may be accelerating at higher-elevation WS27

Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

Published (Publication status

Changes to southern Appalachian water yield and stormflow after loss of a foundation species

ABSTRACT Few studies have examined how insect outbreaks affect landscape-level hydrologic processes. We report the hydrologic effects of the invasive, exotic hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) in a headwater catchment in the southern Appalachian Mountains. The study watershed experienced complete mortality of an evergreen tree species, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. (eastern hemlock), after infestation was first detected in 2003. Hemlock mortality resulted in a~6% reduction in basal area in the watershed, and this loss was primarily concentrated in riparian zones. We used a paired-watershed approach to quantify changes in water yield and peak stormflow using streamflow data from the infested watershed and a nearby watershed with significantly lower hemlock basal area. We hypothesized that yield would increase shortly after hemlock infestation but decrease over the longer-term. We found that annual yield did not increase significantly in any year after infestation but decreased significantly by 12·0 cm (~8%) in 2010. Monthly yield also decreased after infestation, but changes were limited to the dormant season. The decline in yield is likely to persist as hemlock is replaced by species with higher transpiration rates. Peakflow increased significantly after infestation during the two largest flow events in the post-infestation period. Changes in stormflow during extreme events may have been temporary as another evergreen, Rhododendron maximum, may have mitigated some of the changes after hemlock loss. Thus, streams draining watersheds where eastern hemlock has been lost due to HWA infestation demonstrate permanent reductions in yield and transient increases in peakflow during large-flow events. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA

Time lags: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex ways that are difficult to predict. Coordinated long-term research and analysis are required to assess how these changes will affect a diverse array of ecosystem services. This paper is part of a series that is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. This effort revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling scientific case study about “what their site would look like” in 50 or 100 yr. As the site results were prepared, themes emerged, and the case studies were grouped into separate papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects and compiled into this special issue. This paper addresses the time lags theme with five examples from diverse biomes including tundra (Arctic), coastal upwelling (California Current Ecosystem), montane forests (Coweeta), and Everglades freshwater and coastal wetlands (Florida Coastal Everglades) LTER sites. Its objective is to demonstrate the importance of different types of time lags, in different kinds of ecosystems, as drivers of ecosystem structure and function and how these can effectively be addressed with long-term studies. The concept that slow, interactive, compounded changes can have dramatic effects on ecosystem structure, function, services, and future scenarios is apparent in many systems, but they are difficult to quantify and predict. The case studies presented here illustrate the expanding scope of thinking about time lags within the LTER network and beyond. Specifically, they examine what variables are best indicators of lagged changes in arctic tundra, how progressive ocean warming can have profound effects on zooplankton and phytoplankton in waters off the California coast, how a series of species changes over many decades can affect Eastern deciduous forests, and how infrequent, extreme cold spells and storms can have enduring effects on fish populations and wetland vegetation along the Southeast coast and the Gulf of Mexico. The case studies highlight the need for a diverse set of LTER (and other research networks) sites to sort out the multiple components of time lag effects in ecosystems

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment’s change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of inter annual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to inter annual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., non-resilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long‐term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5‐year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments

COSORE: A community database for continuous soil respiration and other soil‐atmosphere greenhouse gas flux data

Globally, soils store two to three times as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere, and it is critical to understand how soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uptake will respond to ongoing climate change. In particular, the soil‐to‐atmosphere CO2 flux, commonly though imprecisely termed soil respiration (RS), is one of the largest carbon fluxes in the Earth system. An increasing number of high‐frequency RS measurements (typically, from an automated system with hourly sampling) have been made over the last two decades; an increasing number of methane measurements are being made with such systems as well. Such high frequency data are an invaluable resource for understanding GHG fluxes, but lack a central database or repository. Here we describe the lightweight, open‐source COSORE (COntinuous SOil REspiration) database and software, that focuses on automated, continuous and long‐term GHG flux datasets, and is intended to serve as a community resource for earth sciences, climate change syntheses and model evaluation. Contributed datasets are mapped to a single, consistent standard, with metadata on contributors, geographic location, measurement conditions and ancillary data. The design emphasizes the importance of reproducibility, scientific transparency and open access to data. While being oriented towards continuously measured RS, the database design accommodates other soil‐atmosphere measurements (e.g. ecosystem respiration, chamber‐measured net ecosystem exchange, methane fluxes) as well as experimental treatments (heterotrophic only, etc.). We give brief examples of the types of analyses possible using this new community resource and describe its accompanying R software package

Drought limitations to leaf-level gas exchange: results from a model linking stomatal optimization and cohesion-tension theory

ABSTRACT We merge concepts from stomatal optimization theory and cohesion-tension theory to examine the dynamics of three mechanisms that are potentially limiting to leaf-level gas exchange in trees during drought: (1) a 'demand limitation' driven by an assumption of optimal stomatal functioning; (2) 'hydraulic limitation' of water movement from the roots to the leaves; and (3) 'non-stomatal' limitations imposed by declining leaf water status within the leaf. Model results suggest that species-specific 'economics' of stomatal behaviour may play an important role in differentiating species along the continuum of isohydric to anisohydric behaviour; specifically, we show that non-stomatal and demand limitations may reduce stomatal conductance and increase leaf water potential, promoting wide safety margins characteristic of isohydric species. We used model results to develop a diagnostic framework to identify the most likely limiting mechanism to stomatal functioning during drought and showed that many of those features were commonly observed in field observations of tree water use dynamics. Direct comparisons of modelled and measured stomatal conductance further indicated that non-stomatal and demand limitations reproduced observed patterns of tree water use well for an isohydric species but that a hydraulic limitation likely applies in the case of an anisohydric species

Drought limitations to leaf-level gas exchange: results from a model linking stomatal optimization and cohesion-tension theory

ABSTRACT We merge concepts from stomatal optimization theory and cohesion-tension theory to examine the dynamics of three mechanisms that are potentially limiting to leaf-level gas exchange in trees during drought: (1) a 'demand limitation' driven by an assumption of optimal stomatal functioning; (2) 'hydraulic limitation' of water movement from the roots to the leaves; and (3) 'non-stomatal' limitations imposed by declining leaf water status within the leaf. Model results suggest that species-specific 'economics' of stomatal behaviour may play an important role in differentiating species along the continuum of isohydric to anisohydric behaviour; specifically, we show that non-stomatal and demand limitations may reduce stomatal conductance and increase leaf water potential, promoting wide safety margins characteristic of isohydric species. We used model results to develop a diagnostic framework to identify the most likely limiting mechanism to stomatal functioning during drought and showed that many of those features were commonly observed in field observations of tree water use dynamics. Direct comparisons of modelled and measured stomatal conductance further indicated that non-stomatal and demand limitations reproduced observed patterns of tree water use well for an isohydric species but that a hydraulic limitation likely applies in the case of an anisohydric species

Ecosystem processes at the watershed scale: Influence of flowpath patterns of canopy ecophysiology on emergent catchment water and carbon cycling

Forest canopy water use and carbon cycling traits (WCT) can vary substantially and in spatially organized patterns, with significant impacts on watershed eco-hydrology. In many watersheds WCT may vary systematically along and between hydrologic flowpaths as an adaptation to available soil water, nutrients and microclimate-mediated atmospheric water demand. We hypothesize that the emerging patterns of WCT at the hillslope to catchment scale provide a more resistant ecohydrological system, particularly with respect to drought stress, and the maintenance of high levels of productivity. Rather than attempting to address this hypothesis with species specific patterns, we outline broader functional WCT groups, and explore the sensitivity of water and carbon balances to the representation of canopyWCT functional organization through a modeling approach. We use a well-studied experimental watershed in North Carolina where detailed mapping of forest community patterns are sufficient to describe WCT functional organization. Ecohydrological models typically use broad-scale characterizations of forest canopy composition based on remotely sensed information (e.g., evergreen vs. deciduous), which may not adequately represent the range or spatial pattern of functional group WCT at hillslope to watershed scales. We use three different representations of WCT functional organizations: 1. restricting WCT to deciduous/conifer differentiation, 2. utilizing more detailed, but aspatial, information on local forest community composition, and 3. spatially distributed representation of local forest WCT. Accounting for WCT functional organization information improves model performance not only in terms of capturing observed flow regimes (especially watershed-scale seasonal flow dynamics), but also in terms of representing more detailed canopy eco-hydrologic behavior (e.g. root zone soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and net canopy photosynthesis), especially under dry condition. Results suggest the well-known zonation of forest communities over hydrologic gradients is not just a local adaptation, but also provides a property that regulates hillslope to catchment scale behavior of water use, and drought resistance