Sleep as a victim of the “time crunch” – A multinational analysis

As reflected in many popular and academic writings, there is general concern that contemporary life is becoming ruled by a societal “time crunch”, in which work and family pressures make daily life more hectic. One implica-tion of this condition is that sleep time has been reduced in order to accommodate these pressures. While this view seems supported by recent national surveys in which Americans now claim to get less than 7 hours of sleep a night, it is not supported by sleep times reported in 2003-07 ATUS time diaries. If anything, time-diary sleep hours are higher than in previous decades, approaching 60 hours a week in both the US and Canada. Similar levels of sleep hours are found in 18 European counties, with most of those having trend data also showing no decrease in sleep over recent decades, with the exceptions of Germany and Japan. The major predictors of sleep time in US and Canada are work hours and, increasingly, education. The US-Canada finding that women sleep slightly more than men is mainly a reflection of these two predictors. Higher sleep for women is also found in more Northern and Western European countries, but not in more Eastern and Southern Europe; moreover, men in Japan, the country with by far the least sleep report more diary hours of sleep than women.Sleep time, time-diary sleep hours, men, women

Variations in the rational use of time – The travel pulse of commutes between home and job

Ian Cullen and his research colleagues long ago suggested that people form habits in daily life that suboptimize behavior in view of constraints. Such rational suboptimization is posited here to apply to trips between home and work and to vary by time of the day. Previous research suggests that afternoons prove more difficult for people than mornings, with rush hour traffic patterns shown as one aspect. This paper contrasts with episode level data from Statistics Canada’s 2005 time-use survey the temporal pattern (shown as a “travel pulse”) of weekday commutes between home and job by full-time workers with external workplaces. The mean trip duration in the morning is less than in the afternoon, as is its standard deviation. This is rooted in a visibly greater dispersion of rational starting times from home in the morning with arrival at work at various times in advance of the start to the formal work day, while, in the afternoon, people typically depart from work directly at externally-determined closing times and in concentrated peaks. The result is that nearly twice the number of commuters set out at the same time during the afternoons than in the mornings. The less than individually-rational intensity of the afternoon commuting context is compounded by the concentration of everyday shopping stops during the afternoon commute. Mode of travel accounts for significantly different mean trip times, but differences in trip duration by time of day transcend travel mode. Differences by gender interact with mode of travel but are not generally significant. The rich legacy established by Andrew Harvey is apparent, as he has been an influential shaper and advocate of the Statistics Canada’s time-use surveys, the use of such data for transportation analyses, and a focus on episode-level analysis.Rationality, suboptimization, commuting, time of day, travel mode, gender

An Analysis of Income Smoothing

The purpose of this research is to investigate various income smoothing detection methods.  Using a SEC identified sample of firms that were charged with violations of GAAP due to earnings manipulations and a matched sample of firms, we test seven popular models to determine which provide the best identification of income smoothing. The results indicate that, while there is no significant difference between six of the seven detection methods, the Dechow et al. method provides different results. We found the Dechow, et al. method to be significantly different in detecting smoothing, although this method was different only because it detected 25 out of the total of 28 firms as income smoothing firms.  Our results indicate that many more of the matched sample appear to be income smoothing firms and fewer of the SEC sample appear to smooth income.We think these results indicate that researchers should be cautious in their conclusions.  While these methods provide differing results, they also provide insight into the various aspects of income smoothing and the resulting effect on earnings.  Therefore this research has provided insight into the different income smoothing detection models, while also indicating that different methods are not equally suited to determine all forms of income smoothing.  The appropriate methodology must be chosen to address the specific aspects of income smoothing or earnings management that the researcher is investigating

Divergent trophic responses of sympatric penguin species to historic anthropogenic exploitation and recent climate change

The Southern Ocean is in an era of significant change. Historic overharvesting of marine mammals and recent climatic warming have cascading impacts on resource availability and, in turn, ecosystem structure and function. We examined trophic responses of sympatric chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) penguins to nearly 100 y of shared environmental change in the Antarctic Peninsula region using compound-specific stable isotope analyses of museum specimens. A century ago, gentoo penguins fed almost exclusively on low-trophic level prey, such as krill, during the peak of historic overexploitation of marine mammals, which was hypothesized to have resulted in a krill surplus. In the last 40 y, gentoo penguin trophic position has increased a full level as krill declined in response to recent climate change, increased competition from recovering marine mammal populations, and the development of a commercial krill fishery. A shifting isotopic baseline supporting gentoo penguins suggests a concurrent increase in coastal productivity over this time. In contrast, chinstrap penguins exhibited no change in trophic position, despite variation in krill availability over the past century. The specialized foraging niche of chinstrap penguins likely renders them more sensitive to changes in krill availability, relative to gentoo penguins, as evinced by their declining population trends in the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 40 y. Over the next century, similarly divergent trophic and population responses are likely to occur among Antarctic krill predators if climate change and other anthropogenic impacts continue to favor generalist over specialist species

Spectroscopy of Broad Line Blazars from 1LAC

We report on optical spectroscopy of 165 Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars (FSRQs) in the Fermi 1LAC sample, which have helped allow a nearly complete study of this population. Fermi FSRQ show significant evidence for non-thermal emission even in the optical; the degree depends on the gamma-ray hardness. They also have smaller virial estimates of hole mass than the optical quasar sample. This appears to be largely due to a preferred (axial) view of the gamma-ray FSRQ and non-isotropic (H/R ~ 0.4) distribution of broad-line velocities. Even after correction for this bias, the Fermi FSRQ show higher mean Eddington ratios than the optical population. A comparison of optical spectral properties with Owens Valley Radio Observatory radio flare activity shows no strong correlation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 in a US hospital system: A multistate analysis

There are limited data on longitudinal outcomes for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations that account for transitions between clinical states over time. Using electronic health record data from a hospital network in the St. Louis, Missouri, region, we performed multistate analyses to examine longitudinal transitions and outcomes among hospitalized adults with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 with respect to 15 mutually exclusive clinical states. Between March 15 and July 25, 2020, a total of 1,577 patients in the network were hospitalized with COVID-19 (49.9% male; median age, 63 years (interquartile range, 50-75); 58.8% Black). Overall, 34.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 26.4, 41.8) had an intensive care unit admission and 12.3% (95% CI: 8.5, 16.1) received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The risk of decompensation peaked immediately after admission; discharges peaked around days 3-5, and deaths plateaued between days 7 and 16. At 28 days, 12.6% (95% CI: 9.6, 15.6) of patients had died (4.2% (95% CI: 3.2, 5.2) had received IMV) and 80.8% (95% CI: 75.4, 86.1) had been discharged. Among those receiving IMV, 35.1% (95% CI: 28.2, 42.0) remained intubated after 14 days; after 28 days, 37.6% (95% CI: 30.4, 44.7) had died and only 37.7% (95% CI: 30.6, 44.7) had been discharged. Multistate methods offer granular characterizations of the clinical course of COVID-19 and provide essential information for guiding both clinical decision-making and public health planning

Spectroscopy of the Largest Ever γ-Ray-selected BL Lac Sample

We report on spectroscopic observations covering most of the 475 BL Lacs in the second Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) catalog of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Including archival measurements (correcting several erroneous literature values) we now have spectroscopic redshifts for 44% of the BL Lacs. We establish firm lower redshift limits via intervening absorption systems and statistical lower limits via searches for host galaxies for an additional 51% of the sample leaving only 5% of the BL Lacs unconstrained. The new redshifts raise the median spectroscopic z from 0.23 to 0.33 and include redshifts as large as z = 2.471. Spectroscopic redshift minima from intervening absorbers have z = 0.70, showing a substantial fraction at large z and arguing against strong negative evolution. We find that detected BL Lac hosts are bright ellipticals with black hole masses M_• ~ 10^(8.5) – 10^9, substantially larger than the mean of optical AGNs and LAT Flat Spectrum Radio Quasar samples. A slow increase in M_• with z may be due to selection bias. We find that the power-law dominance of the optical spectrum extends to extreme values, but this does not strongly correlate with the γ-ray properties, suggesting that strong beaming is the primary cause of the range in continuum dominance

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

A High Statistics Search for Ultra-High Energy Gamma-Ray Emission from Cygnus X-3 and Hercules X-1

We have carried out a high statistics (2 Billion events) search for ultra-high energy gamma-ray emission from the X-ray binary sources Cygnus X-3 and Hercules X-1. Using data taken with the CASA-MIA detector over a five year period (1990-1995), we find no evidence for steady emission from either source at energies above 115 TeV. The derived upper limits on such emission are more than two orders of magnitude lower than earlier claimed detections. We also find no evidence for neutral particle or gamma-ray emission from either source on time scales of one day and 0.5 hr. For Cygnus X-3, there is no evidence for emission correlated with the 4.8 hr X-ray periodicity or with the occurrence of large radio flares. Unless one postulates that these sources were very active earlier and are now dormant, the limits presented here put into question the earlier results, and highlight the difficulties that possible future experiments will have in detecting gamma-ray signals at ultra-high energies.Comment: 26 LaTeX pages, 16 PostScript figures, uses psfig.sty to be published in Physical Review

A retrospective claims analysis of combination therapy in the treatment of adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Combination therapy in managing psychiatric disorders is not uncommon. While combination therapy has been documented for depression and schizophrenia, little is known about combination therapy practices in managing attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study seeks to quantify the combination use of ADHD medications and to understand predictors of combination therapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prescription dispensing events were drawn from a U.S. national claims database including over 80 managed-care plans. Patients studied were age 18 or over with at least 1 medical claim with a diagnosis of ADHD (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] code 314.0), a pharmacy claim for ADHD medication during the study period July2003 to June2004, and continuous enrollment 6 months prior to and throughout the study period. Dispensing events were grouped into 6 categories: atomoxetine (ATX), long-acting stimulants (LAS), intermediate-acting stimulants (IAS), short-acting stimulants (SAS), bupropion (BUP), and Alpha-2 Adrenergic Agonists (A2A). Events were assigned to calendar months, and months with combined use from multiple categories within patient were identified. Predictors of combination therapy for LAS and for ATX were modeled for patients covered by commercial plans using logistic regression in a generalized estimating equations framework to adjust for within-patient correlation between months of observation. Factors included age, gender, presence of the hyperactive component of ADHD, prior diagnoses for psychiatric disorders, claims history of recent psychiatric visit, insurance plan type, and geographic region.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 18,609 patients identified representing a total of 11,886 months of therapy with ATX; 40,949 months with LAS; 13,622 months with IAS; 38,141 months with SAS; 22,087 months with BUP; and 1,916 months with A2A. Combination therapy was present in 19.7% of continuing months (months after the first month of therapy) for ATX, 21.0% for LAS, 27.4% for IAS, 23.1% for SAS, 36.9% for BUP, and 53.0% for A2A.</p> <p>For patients receiving LAS, being age 25–44 or age 45 and older versus being 18–24 years old, seeing a psychiatrist, having comorbid depression, or having point-of-service coverage versus a Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) resulted in odds ratios significantly greater than 1, representing increased likelihood for combination therapy in managing adult ADHD.</p> <p>For patients receiving ATX, being age 25–44 or age 45 and older versus being 18–24 years old, seeing a psychiatrist, having a hyperactive component to ADHD, or having comorbid depression resulted in odds ratios significantly greater than 1, representing increased likelihood for combination therapy in managing adult ADHD.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>ATX and LAS are the most likely drugs to be used as monotherapy. Factors predicting combination use were similar for months in which ATX was used and for months in which LAS was used except that a hyperactive component to ADHD predicted increased combination use for ATX but not for LAS.</p