Repetition and difference: Lefebvre, Le Corbusier and modernity's (im)moral landscape: a commentary

This article engages with the relationship between social theory, architectural theory and material culture. The article is a reply to an article in a previous volume of the journal in question (Smith, M. (2001) ‘Repetition and difference: Lefebvre, Le Corbusier and modernity’s (im)moral landscape’, Ethics, Place and Environment, 4(1), 31-34) and, consequently, is also a direct engagement with another academic's scholarship. It represents a critique of their work as well as a recasting of their ideas, arguing that the matter in question went beyond interpretative issues to a direct critique of another author's scholarship on both Le Corbusier and Lefebvre. A reply to my article from the author of the original article was carried in a later issue of the journal (Smith, M. (2002) ‘Ethical Difference(s): a Response to Maycroft on Le Corbusier and Lefebvre’, Ethics, Place and Environment, 5(3), 260-269)

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts of precipitation and atmospheric circulation is much lower. Recent advances in seasonal and annual prediction show that the signal-to-noise ratio can be too small in climate models, requiring a very large ensemble to extract the predictable signal. Here, we reassess decadal prediction skill using a much larger ensemble than previously available, and reveal significant skill for precipitation over land and atmospheric circulation, in addition to surface temperature. We further propose a more powerful approach than used previously to evaluate the benefit of initialisation with observations, improving our understanding of the sources of skill. Our results show that decadal climate is more predictable than previously thought and will aid society to prepare for, and adapt to, ongoing climate variability and change.D.M.S., A.A.S., N.J.D., L.H. and R.E. were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra and by the European Commission Horizon 2020 EUCP project (GA 776613). L.P.C. was supported by the Spanish MINECO HIATUS (CGL2015-70353-R) project. F.J.D.R. was supported by the H2020 EUCP (GA 776613) and the Spanish MINECO CLINSA (CGL2017-85791-R) projects. W.A. M. and H.P. were supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the project MiKlip (grant 01LP1519A). The NCAR contribution was supported by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA13OAR4310138 and by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Collaborative Research EaSM2 Grant OCE-1243015. The NCAR contribution is also based upon work supported by NCAR, which is a major facility sponsored by the US NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. The Community Earth System Model Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DPLE) was generated using computational resources provided by the US National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231, as well as by an Accelerated Scientific Discovery grant for Cheyenne (https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX) that was awarded by NCAR’s Computational and Information System Laboratory.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Presupernova Structure of Massive Stars

Issues concerning the structure and evolution of core collapse progenitor stars are discussed with an emphasis on interior evolution. We describe a program designed to investigate the transport and mixing processes associated with stellar turbulence, arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in progenitor structure, besides mass loss, at the time of core collapse. An effort to use precision observations of stellar parameters to constrain theoretical modeling is also described.Comment: Proceedings for invited talk at High Energy Density Laboratory Astrophysics conference, Caltech, March 2010. Special issue of Astrophysics and Space Science, submitted for peer review: 7 pages, 3 figure

Revival of the magnetar PSR J1622-4950: observations with MeerKAT, Parkes, XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR

New radio (MeerKAT and Parkes) and X-ray (XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR) observations of PSR J1622-4950 indicate that the magnetar, in a quiescent state since at least early 2015, reactivated between 2017 March 19 and April 5. The radio flux density, while variable, is approximately 100x larger than during its dormant state. The X-ray flux one month after reactivation was at least 800x larger than during quiescence, and has been decaying exponentially on a 111+/-19 day timescale. This high-flux state, together with a radio-derived rotational ephemeris, enabled for the first time the detection of X-ray pulsations for this magnetar. At 5%, the 0.3-6 keV pulsed fraction is comparable to the smallest observed for magnetars. The overall pulsar geometry inferred from polarized radio emission appears to be broadly consistent with that determined 6-8 years earlier. However, rotating vector model fits suggest that we are now seeing radio emission from a different location in the magnetosphere than previously. This indicates a novel way in which radio emission from magnetars can differ from that of ordinary pulsars. The torque on the neutron star is varying rapidly and unsteadily, as is common for magnetars following outburst, having changed by a factor of 7 within six months of reactivation.Comment: Published in ApJ (2018 April 5); 13 pages, 4 figure

Mesoscale Atlantic water eddy off the Laptev Sea continental slope carries the signature of upstream interaction

A mesoscale eddy formed by the interaction of inflows of Atlantic water (AW) from Fram Strait and the Barents Sea into the Arctic Ocean was observed in February 2005 off the Laptev Sea continental slope by a mooring equipped with a McLane Moored Profiler. The eddy was composed of two distinct, vertically aligned cores with a combined thickness of about 650 m. The upper core of approximately ambient density was warmer (2.6°C), saltier (34.88 psu), and vertically stably stratified. The lower core was cooler (0.1°C), fresher (34.81 psu), neutrally stratified and ∼0.02 kg/m3 less dense than surrounding ambient water. The eddy, homogeneous out to a radius of at least 3.4 km, had a 14.5 km radius of maximum velocity, and an entire diameter of about 27 km. We hypothesize that the eddy was formed by the confluence of the Fram Strait and Barents Sea AW inflows into the Arctic Ocean that takes place north of the Kara Sea, about 1100 km upstream from the mooring location. The eddy's vertical structure is likely maintained by salt fingering and diffusive convection. The numerical simulation of one-dimensional thermal and salt diffusion equations reasonably reproduces the evolution of the eddy thermohaline patterns from the hypothesized source area to the mooring location, suggesting that the vertical processes of double-diffusive and shear instabilities may be more important than lateral processes for the evolution of the eddy. The eddy is able to carry its thermohaline anomaly several thousand kilometers downstream from its source location

An Injection System for the CHIME/FRB Experiment

Dedicated surveys searching for Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) are subject to selection effects which bias the observed population of events. Software injection systems are one method of correcting for these biases by injecting a mock population of synthetic FRBs directly into the realtime search pipeline. The injected population may then be used to map intrinsic burst properties onto an expected signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), so long as telescope characteristics such as the beam model and calibration factors are properly accounted for. This paper presents an injection system developed for the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment Fast Radio Burst project (CHIME/FRB). The system was tested to ensure high detection efficiency, and the pulse calibration method was verified. Using an injection population of ~85,000 synthetic FRBs, we found that the correlation between fluence and SNR for injected FRBs was consistent with that of CHIME/FRB detections in the first CHIME/FRB catalog. We also noted that the sensitivity of the telescope varied strongly as a function of the broadened burst width, but not as a function of the dispersion measure. We conclude that some of the machine-learning based Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) mitigation methods used by CHIME/FRB can be re-trained using injection data to increase sensitivity to wide events, and that planned upgrades to the presented injection system will allow for determining a more accurate CHIME/FRB selection function in the near future.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to A

Multidecadal variations in the early Holocene outflow of Red Sea Water into the Arabian Sea

We present Holocene stable oxygen isotope data from the deep Arabian Sea off Somalia at a decadal time resolution as a proxy for the history of intermediate/upper deep water. These data show an overall δ18O reduction by 0.5‰ between 10 and ~6.5 kyr B.P. superimposed upon short-term δ18O variations at a decadal-centennial timescale. The amplitude of the decadal variations is 0.3‰ prior, and up to 0.6‰ subsequent, to ~8.1 kyr B.P. We conclude from modeling experiments that the short-term δ18O variations between 10 and ~6.5 kyr B.P. most likely document changes in the evaporation-precipitation balance in the central Red Sea. Changes in water temperature and salinity cause the outflowing Red Sea Water to settle roughly 800 m deeper than today

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty