Assessing the potential implementation of earthquake early warning for schools in the Patras region, Greece

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is currently deemed a credible approach to seismic resilience enhancement in modern societies, especially if part of a more holistic earthquake mitigation strategy involving other risk reduction tools such as structural upgrading/retrofit. Yet, there remains a strong need to 1) assess the feasibility of EEW in various seismotectonic contexts, considering specific target applications/end users; and 2) develop next-generation decision-support systems relying on interpretable probabilistic impact-based estimates toward more risk-informed decision-making on EEW installation/alert triggering. These challenges are addressed in this paper, which showcases a series of recent significant EEW contributions by the authors. First, we present the results of a state-of-the-art feasibility study for EEW in schools performed across the Patras region of Greece, attempting to spatially combine traditional seismologically-driven EEW decision criteria (i.e., warning time) with proxy risk-oriented measures for earthquake impact (i.e., building fragility and the number of exposed school students). These results show that, under certain conditions, EEW could be effective for the schools in the considered case-study region. We then demonstrate an advanced end-user-centred approach for improved risk-informed decision-making on triggering EEW alerts. The proposed methodology integrates earthquake-engineering-related seismic performance assessment procedures and metrics with multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) within an end-to-end probabilistic framework. The performance-based earthquake engineering component of such a framework facilitates the computation of various damage/loss estimates (e.g., repair cost, downtime, and casualties) by combining target-structure-specific models of seismic response, fragility, and vulnerability with real-time ground-shaking estimates. Additionally, the incorporated MCDM methodology enables explicit consideration of end-user preferences (importance) towards the estimated consequences in the context of alert issuance. The developed approach is demonstrated using an archetype school building for the case-study region, for which we specifically investigate the optimal decision (i.e., “trigger” or “don't trigger” an EEW alert) across a range of ground-motion intensity measures. We find that the best action for a given level of ground shaking can vary as a function of stakeholder preferences

Differing views - can chimpanzees do level 2 perspective-taking?

We gratefully acknowledge financial support by the German National Academic Foundation.Although chimpanzees understand what others may see, it is unclear if they understand how others see things (Level 2 perspective-taking). We investigated whether chimpanzees can predict the behavior of a conspecific which is holding a mistaken perspective that differs from their own. The subject competed with a conspecific over two food sticks. While the subject could see that both were the same size, to the competitor one appeared bigger than the other. In a previously established game, the competitor chose one stick in private first and the subject chose thereafter, without knowing which of the sticks was gone. Chimpanzees and 6-year-old children chose the ‘riskier’ stick (that looked bigger to the competitor) significantly less in the game than in a nonsocial control. Children chose randomly in the control, thus showing Level 2 perspective-taking skills; in contrast, chimpanzees had a preference for the ‘riskier’ stick here, rendering it possible that they attributed their own preference to the competitor to predict her choice. We thus run a follow-up in which chimpanzees did not have a preference in the control. Now they also chose randomly in the game. We conclude that chimpanzees solved the task by attributing their own preference to the other, while children truly understood the other’s mistaken perspective.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

HIF-driven SF3B1 induces KHK-C to enforce fructolysis and heart disease.

Fructose is a major component of dietary sugar and its overconsumption exacerbates key pathological features of metabolic syndrome. The central fructose-metabolising enzyme is ketohexokinase (KHK), which exists in two isoforms: KHK-A and KHK-C, generated through mutually exclusive alternative splicing of KHK pre-mRNAs. KHK-C displays superior affinity for fructose compared with KHK-A and is produced primarily in the liver, thus restricting fructose metabolism almost exclusively to this organ. Here we show that myocardial hypoxia actuates fructose metabolism in human and mouse models of pathological cardiac hypertrophy through hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF1α) activation of SF3B1 and SF3B1-mediated splice switching of KHK-A to KHK-C. Heart-specific depletion of SF3B1 or genetic ablation of Khk, but not Khk-A alone, in mice, suppresses pathological stress-induced fructose metabolism, growth and contractile dysfunction, thus defining signalling components and molecular underpinnings of a fructose metabolism regulatory system crucial for pathological growth

Adaptive Management of Riverine Socio-ecological Systems

If ongoing change in ecosystems and society can render inflexible policies obsolete, then management must dynamically adapt as a counter to perennial uncertainty. This chapter describes a general synthesis of how to make decision-making more adaptive and then explores the barriers to learning in management. We then describe how one such process, known as adaptive management (AM), has been applied in different river basins, on which basis we discuss AM’s strengths and limitations in various resource management contexts

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

A horizontal component broadband seismic sensor based on an inverted pendulum

This experimental study demonstrates a horizontal seismic sensor based on an inverted vertical pendulum. The arm that keeps the proof mass inverted at the quiescent position is directly attached on an elastic metallic strip made from chrysocal (CuSn3Zn9) alloy that acts as a spring. This mass-suspension arrangement acts as pivot and restoring mechanism and reveals a relatively long natural period (3-4 sec), considering the overall dimensions of the pendulum. The application of multiple frequency-dependent feedback paths gave a flat to ground velocity response from 100 to 0.023 sec with a differential output 2 X 750 V/m/sec. The present study focused mainly on the pendulum arrangement with some emphasis on the suspension flexure and the feedback actuator design, whereas the electronic circuitry used was maintained according to the standard techniques used in the force-balanced sensors. Design and assembly simplicity was introduced with the use of a single uniform element as flexure without affecting the precision of the motion. Moreover, the planar coil adopted in the feedback actuator ensured a strong motor constant, without the limitations in the effective displacement usually met in the angular motion of the pendulum. Amplitude and spectral analyses of data sets obtained from local ground noise as well as from local, regional, and teleseismic earthquake activity, have been shown to be comparable with respective recordings of other standard broadband seismometers operated at the same vault. The experimental seismometer was found to be compatible with these reference seismometers in terms of amplitude and frequency response indicating the capability of the experimental sensor to resolve low-frequency and low-amplitude seismic signals