224 research outputs found

    In Search of Perfect Foresight? Policy Bias, Management of Unknowns, and What Has Changed in Science Policy Since the Tohoku Disaster

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    The failure to foresee the catastrophic earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear accident of 2011 has been perceived by many in Japan as a fundamental shortcoming of modern disaster risk science. Hampered by a variety of cognitive and institutional biases, the conventional disaster risk management planning based on the “known risks” led to the cascading failures of the interlinked disaster risk management (DRM) apparatus. This realization led to a major rethinking in the use of science for policy and the incorporations of lessons learned in the country's new DRM policy. This study reviews publicly available documents on expert committee discussions and scientific articles to identify what continuities and changes have been made in the use of scientific knowledge in Japanese risk management. In general, the prior influence of cognitive bias (e.g., overreliance on documented hazard risks) has been largely recognized, and increased attention is now being paid to the incorporation of less documented but known risks. This has led to upward adjustments in estimated damages from future risks and recognition of the need for further strengthening of DRM policy. At the same time, there remains significant continuity in the way scientific knowledge is perceived to provide sufficient and justifiable grounds for the development and implementation of DRM policy. The emphasis on “evidence-based policy” in earthquake and tsunami risk reduction measures continues, despite the critical reflections of a group of scientists who advocate for a major rethinking of the country's science-policy institution respecting the limitations of the current state science

    From Ice Sheets to Main Streets: Intermediaries Connect Climate Scientists to Coastal Adaptation

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    Despite the societal relevance of sea‐level research, a knowledge‐to‐action gap remains between researchers and coastal communities. In the agricultural and water‐management sectors, intermediaries such as consultants and extension agencies have a long and well‐documented history of helping to facilitate the application of scientific knowledge on the ground. However, the role of such intermediaries in adaptation to sea‐level rise, though potentially of vital importance, has been less thoroughly explored. In this commentary, we describe three styles of science intermediation that can connect researchers working on sea‐level projections with decision‐makers relying on those projections. We illustrate these styles with examples of recent and ongoing contexts for the application of sea‐level research, at different spatial scales and political levels ranging from urban development projects to international organizations. Our examples highlight opportunities and drawbacks for the researchers involved and communities adapting to rising seas.Key PointsThere are many more sea‐level adaptation decisions that could use scientific information than there are scientists available to adviseScience intermediaries (boundary organizations, consultancies, extensions) offer an avenue for researchers to engage more in decision‐makingAll parties to climate adaptation decision‐making, including scientists, should attend to equity and accountability in those processesPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143786/1/eft2308_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143786/2/eft2308.pd

    Advancing climate services for the European renewable energy sector through capacity building and user engagement

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    The development of successful climate services faces a number of challenges, including the identification of the target audience and their needs and requirements, and the effective communication of complex climate information, through engagement with a range of stakeholders. This paper describes how these challenges were tackled during the European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) project, part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), in order to deliver a preoperational, proof-of-concept climate service for the European renewable energy sector. The process of iterative user engagement adopted in ECEM is described, from the initial presentation of the team’s first vision for such a service to support external stakeholders, through to evaluation of the final interactive tool for visualisation, data download and supporting documentation (the C3S ECEM Demonstrator). The outcomes of this evaluation are outlined, together with a retrospective reflection on the engagement and development process. The extent to which co-production and codesign were achieved in practice is assessed. The paper also highlights the distance travelled from the start to end of ECEM in terms of building capacity, developing a community of practice, and raising the Technology Readiness Level. The relevance of ECEM for the European climate services market is briefly considered, including the development of downstream commercial services which build upon the public C3S services

    Introducing design in the development of effective climate services

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    Seasonal to decadal climate predictions have the potential to inform different sectors in adapting their short to medium term practices and plans to climate variability and change. The data these predictions generate, however, is still not readily usable, nor widely used in decision-making. This paper addresses two key challenges: a domain challenge pertaining to an emerging climate services market, where users, tasks and data may be unknown; and an informational challenge pertaining to the interpretation, use and adoption of novel and complex scientific data.The paper provides insights into the contributions design can offer to the development of climate services. We illustrate the key steps and share the main lessons learnt from our experience in the creation of Project Ukko (http://project-ukko.net), a fully working climate services prototype developed within the European project EUPORIAS. To address the domain challenge in climate services, extensive engagement with science and industry stakeholders was required. To address the informational challenge, we applied visualisation techniques that can help users to interpret and utilise the information as simply and quickly as possible. Fostering interdisciplinary teams of design researchers, climate scientists and communication specialists brought a wide range of expertise and competences in all stages of climate services development. Specifically, the project recognised the role of users in co-designing the product. This helped to improve the usability of climate predictions, tailor climate information to answer actual needs of users, better communicate uncertainty, and bridge the gap between state-of-the-art climate predictions and users’ readiness to apply this novel information. Keywords: Visualisation, Human-centred design, User engagement, Wind energy, Climate predictions, Prototyp

    Valuation of ecosystem services to inform management of multiple-use landscapes

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    Public agencies worldwide are increasingly adopting an ecosystem service framework to manage lands serving multiple uses. Yet, reliable, practical, and well-tailored methods remain a major limitation in moving from conceptual to actionable approaches. Together with one of the largest federal land managing agencies, we co-develop and co-demonstrate an ecosystem services approach tailored to specific decisions, through a process with potentially widespread relevance. With the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), we focus on balancing military training with biodiversity and resource conservation under both budgetary and land-use pressures at a representative installation. In an iterative process of co-design and application, we define, map, and quantify multiple ecosystem services under realistic management options. Resource management budget emerges as a major determinant of the degree to which managers can sustain both necessary training environments – a DoD-specific ecosystem service – and a prairie ecosystem with species of conservation concern. We also found clear tradeoffs between training intensity and forest-related services. Our co-developed approach brings otherwise hidden values and tradeoffs to the fore in a balanced way that can help public agencies safeguard priority services under potentially conflicting uses and budget limitations

    The Role of Tacit Knowledge in Developing Networks for Sustainable Agriculture

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    Whilst objectivist epistemologies have been dominant in productivist agriculture, the local, cultural and environmental contexts of sustainable agriculture are more fully informed by constructivist epistemologies. Within constructivism, tacit knowledge - an intuitive knowledge that cannot be formalised - is explored empirically. Six types of tacit knowledge were identified as a result of working closely with a sustainable food network: the Brighton and Hove Food Partnership. Customs cohere around integrating food with other sustainable activity; developing a complex unregulated organisation requires savoir-faire. The unique character of Brighton has developed an operational folklore, and network identity is important, particularly in relation to conventional agriculture and to the city as a whole. A confidence in people's roles has helped define network development and using different discourses, communicating the network in diverse contexts, is important for understanding the network. All these tacit knowledge elements have a strong influence over the network but have to be assimilated knowledge rather than learned
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