Predictive validity of A-level grades and teacher-predicted grades in UK medical school applicants: a retrospective analysis of administrative data in a time of COVID-19

OBJECTIVES: To compare in UK medical students the predictive validity of attained A-level grades and teacher-predicted A levels for undergraduate and postgraduate outcomes. Teacher-predicted A-level grades are a plausible proxy for the teacher-estimated grades that replaced UK examinations in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also models the likely future consequences for UK medical schools of replacing public A-level examination grades with teacher-predicted grades. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study using UK Medical Education Database data. SETTING: UK medical education and training. PARTICIPANTS: Dataset 1: 81 202 medical school applicants in 2010–2018 with predicted and attained A-level grades. Dataset 2: 22 150 18-year-old medical school applicants in 2010–2014 with predicted and attained A-level grades, of whom 12 600 had medical school assessment outcomes and 1340 had postgraduate outcomes available. OUTCOME MEASURES: Undergraduate and postgraduate medical examination results in relation to attained and teacher-predicted A-level results. RESULTS: Dataset 1: teacher-predicted grades were accurate for 48.8% of A levels, overpredicted in 44.7% of cases and underpredicted in 6.5% of cases. Dataset 2: undergraduate and postgraduate outcomes correlated significantly better with attained than with teacher-predicted A-level grades. Modelling suggests that using teacher-estimated grades instead of attained grades will mean that 2020 entrants are more likely to underattain compared with previous years, 13% more gaining the equivalent of the lowest performance decile and 16% fewer reaching the equivalent of the current top decile, with knock-on effects for postgraduate training. CONCLUSIONS: The replacement of attained A-level examination grades with teacher-estimated grades as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic may result in 2020 medical school entrants having somewhat lower academic performance compared with previous years. Medical schools may need to consider additional teaching for entrants who are struggling or who might need extra support for missed aspects of A-level teaching

The incidence of scarring on the dorsum of the hand

When undertaking image comparison of the hand between accused and perpetrator, it is not unusual for scars to be identified on the back of the hand. To investigate the occurrence of scarring in a discreet sample, a database of 238 individuals was examined, and the dorsum of the right and left hands was gridded for each individual. The position, size and type of scar were recorded within each grid. It was found that, in general, males exhibited a higher incidence of scarring than females. However, males were more likely to show scarring on their left hand whereas females were more likely to exhibit scarring on their right hand. Contrary to the literature, scarring was not most prevalent along the borders of the hand but occurred more frequently in association with the index and middle finger corridor regions. Surgical scars were rare as were large scars whereas linear scars smaller than 6 mm were the most frequently identified. Close to half of the sample did not exhibit scarring on one hand. The importance of understanding the pattern of scarring on the back of the hand is discussed in the light of forensic image comparison analysis

Lack of knowledge about sexually transmitted infections among women in North rural Vietnam

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The serious long-term complications of sexually transmitted infections (STI) in women and newborns are well-documented. Particularly, STI imply considerable social consequences for women. Low STI knowledge has been shown to be associated with unsafe sex. In Vietnam, misconceptions regarding STI exist, and rural women delay seeking care for STI. The aim of the study was to investigate knowledge of STI among women aged 15 to 49 years in a rural district of Vietnam and to evaluate possible associations between socioeconomic factors and STI knowledge.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional population-based study using face-to-face interviews was carried out between March and May 2006 in a demographic surveillance site in rural Vietnam. In total, 1805 women aged 15–49 years were randomly selected to participate in the study. The interviews were based on a structured questionnaire including questions on sociodemographic characteristics of the women and their knowledge about STI. Each correct answer was scored 1, incorrect or do not know answer was scored 0. Multivariate analyses were applied to examine associations between socio-economic conditions and STI knowledge. Intra-cluster correlation was calculated to examine similarities of STI knowledge within clusters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 1,805 respondents, 78% (73% married vs. 93% unmarried, p < 0.001) did not know any symptoms of STI, 50% could not identify any cause of STI, 59% (54% married vs. 76% unmarried, p < 0.001) did not know that STI can be prevented. Only 31% of the respondents (36% married vs. 14% unmarried, p < 0.001) answered that condom use could protect against STI, and 56% considered partner treatment necessary. Of 40 possible correct answers, the mean knowledge score was 6.5 (range 0–26, median 6). Young, unmarried women and women who lived in the highlands or mountainous areas demonstrated very low levels of STI knowledge (regression coefficients -1.3 and -2.5, respectively, p < 0.001). Experience of an induced abortion was significantly associated with a higher level of knowledge.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The low levels of STI knowledge found among women of reproductive age in a rural district of Vietnam indicate an urgent need of health education interventions, of which, young and unmarried women should be specifically targeted.</p

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

The antibacterial activity of acetic acid against biofilm-producing pathogens of relevance to burns patients

Introduction: Localised infections, and burn wound sepsis are key concerns in the treatment of burns patients, and prevention of colonisation largely relies on biocides. Acetic acid has been shown to have good antibacterial activity against various planktonic organisms, however data is limited on efficacy, and few studies have been performed on biofilms. Objectives: We sought to investigate the antibacterial activity of acetic acid against important burn wound colonising organisms growing planktonically and as biofilms. Methods: Laboratory experiments were performed to test the ability of acetic acid to inhibit growth of pathogens, inhibit the formation of biofilms, and eradicate pre-formed biofilms. Results: Twenty-nine isolates of common wound-infecting pathogens were tested. Acetic acid was antibacterial against planktonic growth, with an minimum inhibitory concentration of 0.16-0.31% for all isolates, and was also able to prevent formation of biofilms (at 0.31 %). Eradication of mature biofilms was observed for all isolates after three hours of exposure. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that acetic acid can inhibit growth of key burn wound pathogens when used at very dilute concentrations. Owing to current concerns of the reducing efficacy of systemic antibiotics, this novel biocide application offers great promise as a cheap and effective measure to treat infections in burns patients

Brain structural and functional asymmetry in human situs inversus totalis

Magnetic resonance imaging was used to investigate brain structural and functional asymmetries in 15 participants with complete visceral reversal (situs inversus totalis, SIT). Language-related brain structural and functional lateralization of SIT participants, including peri-Sylvian gray and white matter asymmetries and hemispheric language dominance, was similar to those of 15 control participants individually matched for sex, age, education, and handedness. In contrast, the SIT cohort showed reversal of the brain (Yakovlevian) torque (occipital petalia and occipital bending) compared to the control group. Secondary findings suggested different asymmetry patterns between SIT participants with (n = 6) or without (n = 9) primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD, also known as Kartagener syndrome) although the small sample sizes warrant cautious interpretation. In particular, reversed brain torque was mainly due to the subgroup with PCD-unrelated SIT and this group also included 55% left handers, a ratio close to a random allocation of handedness. We conclude that complete visceral reversal has no effect on the lateralization of brain structural and functional asymmetries associated with language, but seems to reverse the typical direction of the brain torque in particular in participants that have SIT unrelated to PCD. The observed differences in asymmetry patterns of SIT groups with and without PCD seem to suggest that symmetry breaking of visceral laterality, brain torque, and language dominance rely on different mechanisms

Gastroesophageal reflux leads to esophageal cancer in a surgical model with mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Esophago-gastroduodenal anastomosis with rats mimics the development of human Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma by introducing mixed reflux of gastric and duodenal contents into the esophagus. However, use of this rat model for mechanistic and chemopreventive studies is limited due to lack of genetically modified rat strains. Therefore, a mouse model of esophageal adenocarcinoma is needed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed reflux surgery on wild-type, <it>p53</it>^{<it>A</it>135<it>V </it>}transgenic, and <it>INK4a/Arf</it>^+/-mice of A/J strain. Some mice were also treated with omeprazole (1,400 ppm in diet), iron (50 mg/kg/m, <it>i.p</it>.), or gastrectomy plus iron. Mouse esophagi were harvested at 20, 40 or 80 weeks after surgery for histopathological analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At week 20, we observed metaplasia in wild-type mice (5%, 1/20) and <it>p53</it>^{<it>A</it>135<it>V </it>}mice (5.3%, 1/19). At week 40, metaplasia was found in wild-type mice (16.2%, 6/37), <it>p53</it>^{<it>A</it>135<it>V </it>}mice (4.8%, 2/42), and wild-type mice also receiving gastrectomy and iron (6.7%, 1/15). Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma developed in <it>INK4a/Arf</it>^+/-mice (7.1%, 1/14), and wild-type mice receiving gastrectomy and iron (21.4%, 3/14). Among 13 wild-type mice which were given iron from week 40 to 80, twelve (92.3%) developed squamous cell carcinoma at week 80. None of these mice developed esophageal adenocarcinoma.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Surgically induced gastroesophageal reflux produced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, but not esophageal adenocarcinoma, in mice. Dominant negative <it>p53 </it>mutation, heterozygous loss of <it>INK4a/Arf</it>, antacid treatment, iron supplementation, or gastrectomy failed to promote esophageal adenocarcinoma in these mice. Further studies are needed in order to develop a mouse model of esophageal adenocarcinoma.</p

Molecular decoding using luminescence from an entangled porous framework

Chemosensors detect a single target molecule from among several molecules, but cannot differentiate targets from one another. In this study, we report a molecular decoding strategy in which a single host domain accommodates a class of molecules and distinguishes between them with a corresponding readout. We synthesized the decoding host by embedding naphthalenediimide into the scaffold of an entangled porous framework that exhibited structural dynamics due to the dislocation of two chemically non-interconnected frameworks. An intense turn-on emission was observed on incorporation of a class of aromatic compounds, and the resulting luminescent colour was dependent on the chemical substituent of the aromatic guest. This unprecedented chemoresponsive, multicolour luminescence originates from an enhanced naphthalenediimide–aromatic guest interaction because of the induced-fit structural transformation of the entangled framework. We demonstrate that the cooperative structural transition in mesoscopic crystal domains results in a nonlinear sensor response to the guest concentration