Using narrative messages to improve parents' experience of learning that a child has overweight

BackgroundProviding feedback to parents that their child is overweight often elicits negative reactance. AimsTo investigate the acceptability and feasibility of providing theoretically-informed narrative messages to reduce negative reactance, alongside National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) feedback informing parents when their child is overweight. MethodsA mixed-methods design: interviews with parents of primary school-aged children explored responses to the narratives; a randomised trial examined the feasibility, acceptability and promise of enclosing narratives with NCMP feedback.FindingsInterview participants found the narratives acceptable and indicated they could help lessen negative reactance. Pilot study data suggested 65% of parents could identify with the characters, with evidence of elaboration (applying the story to one’s own situation) evident in 65% of those reading the accounts. ConclusionAlthough the findings are limited by the low response rates typical in this population, narrative messages were acceptable to parents, feasible to deliver and show promise. <br/

Efficacy of computational predictions of the functional effect of idiosyncratic pharmacogenetic variants

BACKGROUND: Pharmacogenetic variation is important to drug responses through diverse and complex mechanisms. Predictions of the functional impact of missense pharmacogenetic variants primarily rely on the degree of sequence conservation between species as a primary discriminator. However, idiosyncratic or off-target drug-variant interactions sometimes involve effects that are peripheral or accessory to the central systems in which a gene functions. Given the importance of sequence conservation to functional prediction tools—these idiosyncratic pharmacogenetic variants may violate the assumptions of predictive software commonly used to infer their effect. METHODS: Here we exhaustively assess the effectiveness of eleven missense mutation functional inference tools on all known pharmacogenetic missense variants contained in the Pharmacogenomics Knowledgebase (PharmGKB) repository. We categorize PharmGKB entries into sub-classes to catalog likely off-target interactions, such that we may compare predictions across different variant annotations. RESULTS: As previously demonstrated, functional inference tools perform variably across the complete set of PharmGKB variants, with large numbers of variants incorrectly classified as ‘benign’. However, we find substantial differences amongst PharmGKB variant sub-classes, particularly in variants known to cause off-target, type B adverse drug reactions, that are largely unrelated to the main pharmacological action of the drug. Specifically, variants associated with off-target effects (hence referred to as off-target variants) were most often incorrectly classified as ‘benign’. These results highlight the importance of understanding the underlying mechanism of pharmacogenetic variants and how variants associated with off-target effects will ultimately require new predictive algorithms. CONCLUSION: In this work we demonstrate that functional inference tools perform poorly on pharmacogenetic variants, particularly on subsets enriched for variants causing off-target, type B adverse drug reactions. We describe how to identify variants associated with off-target effects within PharmGKB in order to generate a training set of variants that is needed to develop new algorithms specifically for this class of variant. Development of such tools will lead to more accurate functional predictions and pave the way for the increased wide-spread adoption of pharmacogenetics in clinical practice

Matched Pair Calibration for Ranking Fairness

We propose a test of fairness in score-based ranking systems called matched pair calibration. Our approach constructs a set of matched item pairs with minimal confounding differences between subgroups before computing an appropriate measure of ranking error over the set. The matching step ensures that we compare subgroup outcomes between identically scored items so that measured performance differences directly imply unfairness in subgroup-level exposures. We show how our approach generalizes the fairness intuitions of calibration from a binary classification setting to ranking and connect our approach to other proposals for ranking fairness measures. Moreover, our strategy shows how the logic of marginal outcome tests extends to cases where the analyst has access to model scores. Lastly, we provide an example of applying matched pair calibration to a real-word ranking data set to demonstrate its efficacy in detecting ranking bias.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure

Designing a highly productive next generation CHO fed batch platform

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Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density

Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals &lt;1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data

Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar : understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future