Bayesian Hierarchical Models Combining Different Study Types and Adjusting for Covariate Imbalances: A Simulation Study to Assess Model Performance

BACKGROUND: Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to combine evidence from different types of study designs. However, when combining evidence from randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, imbalances in patient characteristics between study arms may bias the results. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of a proposed Bayesian approach to adjust for imbalances in patient level covariates when combining evidence from both types of study designs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Simulation techniques, in which the truth is known, were used to generate sets of data for randomised and non-randomised studies. Covariate imbalances between study arms were introduced in the non-randomised studies. The performance of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for imbalances was assessed in terms of bias. The data were also modelled using three other Bayesian approaches for synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies. The simulations considered six scenarios aimed at assessing the sensitivity of the results to changes in the impact of the imbalances and the relative number and size of studies of each type. For all six scenarios considered, the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences within studies gave results that were unbiased and closest to the true value compared to the other models. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Where informed health care decision making requires the synthesis of evidence from randomised and non-randomised study designs, the proposed hierarchical Bayesian method adjusted for differences in patient characteristics between study arms may facilitate the optimal use of all available evidence leading to unbiased results compared to unadjusted analyses

A New Approach to Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Using Partial Least Squares Regression: The Trend in Blood Pressure in the Glasgow Alumni Cohort

Due to a problem of identification, how to estimate the distinct effects of age, time period and cohort has been a controversial issue in the analysis of trends in health outcomes in epidemiology. In this study, we propose a novel approach, partial least squares (PLS) analysis, to separate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Our example for illustration is taken from the Glasgow Alumni cohort. A total of 15,322 students (11,755 men and 3,567 women) received medical screening at the Glasgow University between 1948 and 1968. The aim is to investigate the secular trends in blood pressure over 1925 and 1950 while taking into account the year of examination and age at examination. We excluded students born before 1925 or aged over 25 years at examination and those with missing values in confounders from the analyses, resulting in 12,546 and 12,516 students for analysis of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respectively. PLS analysis shows that both systolic and diastolic blood pressure increased with students' age, and students born later had on average lower blood pressure (SBP: −0.17 mmHg/per year [95% confidence intervals: −0.19 to −0.15] for men and −0.25 [−0.28 to −0.22] for women; DBP: −0.14 [−0.15 to −0.13] for men; −0.09 [−0.11 to −0.07] for women). PLS also shows a decreasing trend in blood pressure over the examination period. As identification is not a problem for PLS, it provides a flexible modelling strategy for age-period-cohort analysis. More emphasis is then required to clarify the substantive and conceptual issues surrounding the definitions and interpretations of age, period and cohort effects

Long term impact of systemic bacterial infection on the cerebral vasculature and microglia

Background: Systemic infection leads to generation of inflammatory mediators that result in metabolic and behavioural changes. Repeated or chronic systemic inflammation leads to a state of innate immune tolerance: a protective mechanism against over-activity of the immune system. In this study we investigated the immune adaptation of microglia and brain vascular endothelial cells in response to systemic inflammation or bacterial infection. Methods: Mice were given repeated doses of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) or a single injection of live Salmonella typhimurium. Inflammatory cytokines were measured in serum, spleen and brain, and microglial phenotype studied by immunohistochemistry.mice were infected with Salmonella typhimurium and subsequently challenged with a focal unilateral, intracerebral injection of LPS. Results: Repeated systemic LPS challenges resulted in increased brain IL-1?, TNF? and IL-12 levels, despite attenuated systemic cytokine production. Each LPS challenge induced significant changes in burrowing behaviour. In contrast, brain IL-1? and IL-12 levels in Salmonella typhimurium infected mice increased over three weeks, with high interferon-? levels in the circulation. Behavioural changes were only observed during the acute phase of the infection. Microglia and cerebral vasculature display an activated phenotype, and focal intracerebral injection of LPS 4 weeks after infection results in an exaggerated local inflammatory response when compared to non-infected mice. Conclusions: These studies reveal that the innate immune cells in the brain do not become tolerant to systemic infection, but are primed instead. This may lead to prolonged and damaging cytokine production that may have aprofound effect on the onset and/ or progression of pre-existing neurodegenerative disease.Humans and animals are regularly exposed to bacterial and viral pathogens that can have a considerable impact on our day-to-day living [1]. Upon infection, a set of immune, physiological, metabolic, and behavioural responses is initiated, representing a highly organized strategy of the organism to fight infection. Pro-inflammatory mediators generated in peripheral tissue communicate with the brain to modify behaviour [2], which aids our ability to fight and eliminate the pathogen. The communication pathways from the site of inflammation to the brain have been investigated in animal models and systemic challenge with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) or double stranded RNA (poly I:C) have been widely used to mimic aspects of bacterial and viral infection respectively [3, 4]. These studies have provided evidence that systemically generated inflammatory mediators signal to the brain via both neural and humoral routes, the latter signalling via the circumventricular organs or across the blood-brain barrier (BBB). Signalling into the brain via these routes evokes a response in the perivascular macrophages (PVMs) and microglia, which in turn synthesise diverse inflammatory mediators including cytokines, prostaglandins and nitric oxide [2, 5, 6]. Immune-to-brain communication also occurs in humans who show changes in mood and cognition following systemic inflammation or infection, which are associated with changes in activity in particular regions of the CNS [7-9]. While these changes are part of our normal homeostasis, it is increasingly evident that systemic inflammation has a detrimental effect in animals and also humans, that suffer from chronic neurodegeneration [10, 11]. We, and others, have shown that microglia become primed by on-going neuropathology in the brain, which increases their response towards subsequent inflammatory stimuli, including systemic inflammation [12, 13] Similar findings have been made in aged rodents [14, 15], where it has been shown that there is an exaggerated behavioural and innate immune response in the brainto systemic bacterial and viral infections, but the molecular mechanisms underlying the microglial priming under these conditions is far from understood.Humans and animals are rarely exposed to a single acute systemic inflammatory event: they rather encounter infectious pathogens that replicate in vivo or are exposed to low concentrations of LPS over a prolonged period of time. There is limited information on the impact of non-neurotrophic bacterial infections on the CNS and whether prolonged systemic inflammation will give rise to either a hyper-(priming) or hypo-(tolerance) innate immune response in the brain in response to a subsequent inflammatory stimulus.In this study we measured the levels of cytokines in the serum, spleen and brain as well as assessing sickness behaviour following a systemic bacterial infection using attenuated Salmonella typhimurium SL3261: we compared the effect to that of repeated LPS injections. We show that Salmonella typhimurium caused acute, transient behavioural changes and a robust peripheral immune response that peaks at day 7. Systemic inflammation resulted in a delayed increase in cytokine production in the brain and priming of microglia, which persisted up to four weeks post infection. These effects were not mimicked by repeated LPS challenges. It is well recognised that systemic bacterial and viral infections are significant contributors to morbidity in the elderly [16], and it has been suggested that primed microglia play a role in the increased clinical symptoms seen in patients with Alzheimer’s disease who have systemic inflammation or infections [11, 17]. We show here that systemic infection leads to prolonged cytokine synthesis in the brain and also priming of brain innate immune cells to a subsequent focal inflammatory challenge in the brain parenchyma

Breast cancer risk factors and a novel measure of volumetric breast density: cross-sectional study

We conducted a cross-sectional study nested within a prospective cohort of breast cancer risk factors and two novel measures of breast density volume among 590 women who had attended Glasgow University (1948–1968), replied to a postal questionnaire (2001) and attended breast screening in Scotland (1989–2002). Volumetric breast density was estimated using a fully automated computer programme applied to digitised film-screen mammograms, from medio-lateral oblique mammograms at the first-screening visit. This measured the proportion of the breast volume composed of dense (non-fatty) tissue (Standard Mammogram Form (SMF)%) and the absolute volume of this tissue (SMF volume, cm3). Median age at first screening was 54.1 years (range: 40.0–71.5), median SMF volume 70.25 cm3 (interquartile range: 51.0–103.0) and mean SMF% 26.3%, s.d.=8.0% (range: 12.7–58.8%). Age-adjusted logistic regression models showed a positive relationship between age at last menstrual period and SMF%, odds ratio (OR) per year later: 1.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.08, P=0.004). Number of pregnancies was inversely related to SMF volume, OR per extra pregnancy: 0.78 (0.70–0.86, P<0.001). There was a suggestion of a quadratic relationship between birthweight and SMF%, with lowest risks in women born under 2.5 and over 4 kg. Body mass index (BMI) at university (median age 19) and in 2001 (median age 62) were positively related to SMF volume, OR per extra kg m−2 1.21 (1.15–1.28) and 1.17 (1.09–1.26), respectively, and inversely related to SMF%, OR per extra kg m−2 0.83 (0.79–0.88) and 0.82 (0.76–0.88), respectively, P<0.001. Standard Mammogram Form% and absolute SMF volume are related to several, but not all, breast cancer risk factors. In particular, the positive relationship between BMI and SMF volume suggests that volume of dense breast tissue will be a useful marker in breast cancer studies

Calcium mobilization via intracellular ion channels, store organization and mitochondria in smooth muscle

In smooth muscle, Ca2+ release from the internal store into the cytoplasm occurs via inositol trisphosphate (IP3R) and ryanodine receptors (RyR). The internal Ca2+ stores containing IP3R and RyR may be arranged as multiple separate compartments with various IP3R and RyR arrangements, or there may be a single structure containing both receptors. The existence of multiple stores is proposed to explain several physiological responses which include the progression of Ca2+ waves, graded Ca2+ release from the store and various local responses and sensitivities. We suggest that, rather than multiple stores, a single luminally-continuous store exists in which Ca2+ is in free diffusional equilibrium throughout. Regulation of Ca2+ release via IP3R and RyR by the local Ca2+ concentration within the stores explains the apparent existence of multiple stores and physiological processes such as graded Ca2+ release and Ca2+ waves. Close positioning of IP3R on the store with mitochondria or with receptors on the plasma membrane creates ‘IP3 junctions’ to generate local responses on the luminally-continuous store

Rising Population Cost for Treating People Living with HIV in the UK, 1997-2013

Background The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) is increasing in the UK. This study estimated the annual population cost of providing HIV services in the UK, 1997–2006 and projected them 2007–2013. Methods Annual cost of HIV treatment for PLHIV by stage of HIV infection and type of ART was calculated (UK pounds, 2006 prices). Population costs were derived by multiplying the number of PLHIV by their annual cost for 1997–2006 and projected 2007–2013. Results Average annual treatment costs across all stages of HIV infection ranged from £17,034 in 1997 to £18,087 in 2006 for PLHIV on mono-therapy and from £27,649 in 1997 to £32,322 in 2006 for those on quadruple-or-more ART. The number of PLHIV using NHS services rose from 16,075 to 52,083 in 2006 and was projected to increase to 78,370 by 2013. Annual population cost rose from £104 million in 1997 to £483 million in 2006, with a projected annual cost between £721 and £758 million by 2013. When including community care costs, costs increased from £164 million in 1997, to £683 million in 2006 and between £1,019 and £1,065 million in 2013. Conclusions Increased number of PLHIV using NHS services resulted in rising UK population costs. Population costs are expected to continue to increase, partly due to PLHIV's longer survival on ART and the relative lack of success of HIV preventing programs. Where possible, the cost of HIV treatment and care needs to be reduced without reducing the quality of services, and prevention programs need to become more effective. While high income countries are struggling to meet these increasing costs, middle- and lower-income countries with larger epidemics are likely to find it even more difficult to meet these increasing demands, given that they have fewer resources

Co-morbidity and drug treatment in Alzheimer's disease. A cross sectional study of participants in the Dementia Study in Northern Norway

Inappropriate medical treatment of co-morbidities in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an increasing concern in geriatric medicine. The objective of this study was to compare current drug use related to co-morbidity between individuals with a recent diagnosis of AD and a cognitively healthy control group in a population based clinical trial in Northern Norway. Setting: Nine rural municipalities with 70 000 inhabitants in Northern Norway. Participants: Participants with and without AD recruited in general practice and by population based screening. 187 participants with a recent diagnosis of AD were recruited among community dwellers. Of 791 respondents without cognitive symptoms, 500 were randomly selected and invited to further clinical and cognitive testing. The final control group consisted of 200 cognitively healthy individuals from the same municipalities. Demographic characteristics, data on medical history and current medication were included, and a physical and cognitive examination was performed. The statistical analyses were carried out by independent sample t-test, chi-square, ANCOVA and logistic regression. A co-morbidity score was significantly higher in AD participants compared to controls. The mean number of drugs was higher for AD participants compared to controls (5.1 ± 3.6 and 2.9 ± 2.4 respectively, p < 0.001 age and gender adjusted), also when adjusted for co-morbidity. AD participants used significantly more anticholinergic, sedative and antidepressant drugs. For nursing home residents with AD the mean number of drugs was significantly higher compared to AD participants living at home (6.9 ± 3.9 and 4.5 ± 3.3, respectively, p < 0.001). AD participants were treated with a significantly higher number of drugs as compared to cognitively healthy controls, even after adjustment for co-morbidity. An inappropriate use of anticholinergic and sedative drugs was identified, especially among nursing home residents with AD. The drug burden and the increased risk of adverse reactions among individuals suffering from AD need more attention from prescribing doctors

A reappraisal of the impact of dairy foods and milk fat on cardiovascular disease risk

Background This review provides a reappraisal of the potential effects of dairy foods, including dairy fats, on cardiovascular disease (CVD)/coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Commodities and foods containing saturated fats are of particular focus as current public dietary recommendations are directed toward reducing the intake of saturated fats as a means to improve the overall health of the population. A conference of scientists from different perspectives of dietary fat and health was convened in order to consider the scientific basis for these recommendations. Aims This review and summary of the conference focus on four key areas related to the biology of dairy foods and fats and their potential impact on human health: (a) the effect of dairy foods on CVD in prospective cohort studies; (b) the impact of dairy fat on plasma lipid risk factors for CVD; (c) the effects of dairy fat on non-lipid risk factors for CVD; and (d) the role of dairy products as essential contributors of micronutrients in reference food patterns for the elderly. Conclusions Despite the contribution of dairy products to the saturated fatty acid composition of the diet, and given the diversity of dairy foods of widely differing composition, there is no clear evidence that dairy food consumption is consistently associated with a higher risk of CVD. Thus, recommendations to reduce dairy food consumption irrespective of the nature of the dairy product should be made with cautionJ. Bruce German, Robert A. Gibson, Ronald M. Krauss, Paul Nestel, Benoît Lamarche, Wija A. van Staveren, Jan M. Steijns, Lisette C. P. G. M. de Groot, Adam L. Lock and Frédéric Destaillat