In vitro rodent models as alternative methods in assessing cytotoxicology and carcinogenic potential of metal compounds

Consultable des del TDXTítol obtingut de la portada digitalitzadaLos ensayos in vitro de transformación celular abarcan el proceso multifásico que va desde la conversión neoplásica hasta el establecimiento del fenotipo tumorigénico. En la presente tesis doctoral, el ensayo in vitro Balb/3T3, con una línea celular inmortalizada de fibroblastos de ratón, ha sido aplicado para determinar la citotoxicidad y el potencial carcinogénico de una serie de compuestos metálicos seleccionados por su interés ambiental, laboral y biomédico, adoptando una estrategia específica de trabajo en varias etapas. Esto ha implicado una optimización muy precisa del protocolo para determinar la reproducibilidad intralaboratorios del protocolo del ensayo y para asegurar la estabilidad de las condiciones experimentales de aplicación del ensayo Balb/3T3. Por consiguiente, después de la optimización del protocolo adoptado, el proyecto de tesis se desarrolló siguiendo una estrategia de cuatro etapas: a) determinación de la citotoxicidad a unas concentraciones de exposición fijadas (100 µM, 65 compuestos metálicos individuales). Esto permitió la selección de los compuestos metálicos que tendrían prioridad para las investigaciones subsiguientes; b) establecimiento de las relaciones dosis-efecto para 35 compuestos metálicos identificados como de primera prioridad en la etapa (a), para determinar los correspondientes valores de IC50 y un rango adecuado de concentraciones de exposición para ser utilizado en los pasos siguientes; c) determinación del potencial carcinogénico de los compuestos metálicos seleccionados a partir de la etapa (b); d) estudios sobre los mecanismos de transformación de las especies metálicas identificadas en la fase (c). En este contexto, una aproximación mecanística inicial fue la evaluación de la respuesta apoptótica inducida por los compuestos metálicos seleccionados en las células Balb/3T3. Este estudio sobre la apoptosis ha mostrado que se debería utilizar más de un ensayo para establecer inequívocamente la inducción de apoptosis por alguno de los compuestos metálicos en el sistema de ensayo escogido. Esto es debido a la complejidad del problema y a las dificultades para interpretar los datos experimentales. Por otra parte, los hallazgos sobre la respuesta apoptótica inducida por As(III), Cr(VI) y algunos compuestos de Pt sugieren la hipótesis de la existencia de una relación entre los procesos apoptótico, genotóxico y carcinogénico. Con respecto a los estudios mecanísticos y de metabolismo de los metales, los resultados obtenidos aplicando técnicas analíticas únicas y peculiares como el uso de radiotrazadores, espectrometría de masas con plasma de acoplamiento inductivo, y resonancia magnética nuclear han hecho posible obtener interesantes datos metabólicos sobre la entrada y el reparto intracelular de los metales incorporados en las células. Éste es un aspecto generalmente olvidado en los estudios in vitro a pesar de ser un punto clave para la interpretación mecanística de la citotoxicidad y de la actividad transformante inducidas por los compuestos químicos. Además, se encontró un buen nivel de concordancia al comparar los resultados obtenidos de la aplicación del ensayo Balb/3T3 con los modelos in vitro seleccionados de roedores y humanos. En conclusión, la presente tesis representa una importante contribución para hacer que la línea celular Balb/3T3 sea un valioso modelo in vitro para investigar la correlación entre absorción, biotransformación, citotoxicidad y potencial carcinogénico de los compuestos metálicos. Se puede afirmar que el ensayo Balb/3T3 tiene el potencial para ser adecuado para un estudio futuro de validación.In vitro morphological cell transformation tests encompass the multi-step process from neoplastic conversion to the established tumorigenic phenotype. In the present PhD thesis the in vitro Balb/3T3 assay, an immortalised mouse fibroblast cell line, was applied for assessing cytotoxicity and carcinogenic potential of selected metal compounds of environmental, occupational and biomedical interest by adopting a specific multi-stage work strategy. This has involved a very accurate protocol optimisation in order to assess intralaboratory reproducibility of the test protocol and to assure stability of the experimental conditions in which the Balb/3T3 assay was applied. Therefore, after optimisation of the adopted protocol the present PhD project was carried out following a «four steps approach»: a) determination of cytotoxicity at a fixed concentration exposure (100 µM, 65 individual metal compounds). This allowed the selection of metal compounds to which priority is given for subsequent investigations; b) setting of dose-effect relationships for 35 metal compounds identified as first priority in step (a), in order to establish the corresponding IC50 values and a suitable exposure range of concentrations to be used in the subsequent steps; c) determination of carcinogenic potential of selected metal compounds from step (b); d) mechanistic studies on transforming metal species as identified in step (c). In this context, an initial mechanistic approach was the evaluation of the apoptotic response induced by selected metal compounds on the Balb/3T3 cells. This study on apoptosis has shown that more than one assay should be used in order to establish unequivocally the induction of apoptosis by a metal compound on the selected test system. This is due to the complexity of the problem and the difficulties to interpret the experimental data. Moreover, the findings on the apoptotic response induced by As(III), Cr(VI) and some Pt-compounds suggest the hypothesis of an existing relationship among apoptotic, genotoxic and carcinogenic processes. With regard to mechanistic studies and metal metabolism, the results obtained applying unique and peculiar analytical techniques like the use of radiotracers, Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry and Nuclear Magnetic Resonance have made possible to get interesting metabolic data on uptake and intracellular repartition of metals incorporated into cells. This is an aspect generally neglected in in vitro studies although it is a key point for mechanistic interpretation of cytotoxicity and transforming activity induced by chemicals. In addition, a good level of concordance was achieved by comparing the results obtained from the application of the Balb/3T3 assay with selected in vitro rodent and human models. In conclusion, the present PhD project represents an important contribution to make the Balb/3T3 cell line as a valuable in vitro model to investigate correlation between uptake, biotransformation, cytotoxicity and carcinogenic potential of metal compounds. It is to state that the Balb/3T3 assay has the potential to be suitable for a future validation study

Implication of Cellular Senescence in Osteoarthritis: A Study on Equine Synovial Fluid Mesenchymal Stromal Cells

: Osteoarthritis (OA) is described as a chronic degenerative disease characterized by the loss of articular cartilage. Senescence is a natural cellular response to stressors. Beneficial in certain conditions, the accumulation of senescent cells has been implicated in the pathophysiology of many diseases associated with aging. Recently, it has been demonstrated that mesenchymal stem/stromal cells isolated from OA patients contain many senescent cells that inhibit cartilage regeneration. However, the link between cellular senescence in MSCs and OA progression is still debated. In this study, we aim to characterize and compare synovial fluid MSCs (sf-MSCs), isolated from OA joints, with healthy sf-MSCs, investigating the senescence hallmarks and how this state could affect cartilage repair. Sf-MSCs were isolated from tibiotarsal joints of healthy and diseased horses with an established diagnosis of OA with an age ranging from 8 to 14 years. Cells were cultured in vitro and characterized for cell proliferation assay, cell cycle analysis, ROS detection assay, ultrastructure analysis, and the expression of senescent markers. To evaluate the influence of senescence on chondrogenic differentiation, OA sf-MSCs were stimulated in vitro for up to 21 days with chondrogenic factors, and the expression of chondrogenic markers was compared with healthy sf-MSCs. Our findings demonstrated the presence of senescent sf-MSCs in OA joints with impaired chondrogenic differentiation abilities, which could have a potential influence on OA progression

Using Wearable Inertial Sensors to Monitor Effectiveness of Different Types of Customized Orthoses during CrossFit® Training

Background: Dynamic balance plays a key role in high-impact sports, such as CrossFit, where athletes are required to maintain balance in various weightlifting exercises. The loss of balance in these sport-specific movements may not only affect athlete performance, but also increase the risk of injuries. Objectives: The aim of the study is to achieve greater insight into the balance and athlete position during the CrossFit training by means of inertial sensors, with a particular focus on the role of different custom foot orthoses (CFOs) in order to detect correlations with the role of the cavus foot. Methods: A total of 42 CrossFit® athletes, aged 25 to 42 years, were enrolled in this study. One-way ANOVA tests with post-hoc analysis of variance were used to compare foot posture groups and effects of different types of customized foot orthoses. Results: When comparing the effects of CFOs with the respective balance basal level during the pistol squat exercise, we observed a significant (p = 0.0001) decrease in the sway area, antero-posterior displacement (APD) and medio-lateral displacement (MLD) compared to the basal using both types of CFOs. Conclusion: No significant positive effects of CFOs were observed in some static tests. On the contrary, positive effects of CFOs and, in particular, postural insoles, are relevant to dynamic balance

Assessment of the structural and functional characteristics of human mesenchymal stem cells associated with a prolonged exposure of morphine

The discovery of the expression of opioid receptors in the skin and their role in orchestrating the process of tissue repair gave rise to questions regarding the potential effects of clinical morphine treatment in wound healing. Although short term treatment was reported to improve tissue regeneration, in vivo chronic administration was associated to an impairment of the physiological healing process and systemic fibrosis. Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) play a fundamental role in tissue regeneration. In this regard, acute morphine exposition was recently reported to impact negatively on the functional characteristics of hMSCs, but little is currently known about its long-term effects. To determine how a prolonged treatment could impair their functional characteristics, we exposed hMSCs to increasing morphine concentrations respectively for nine and eighteen days, evaluating in particular the fibrogenic potential exerted by the long-term exposition. Our results showed a time dependent cell viability decline, and conditions compatible with a cellular senescent state. Ultrastructural and protein expression analysis were indicative of increased autophagy, suggesting a relation to a detoxification activity. In addition, the enhanced transcription observed for the genes involved in the synthesis and regulation of type I collagen suggested the possibility that a prolonged morphine treatment might exert its fibrotic potential risk, even involving the hMSCs

Sustaining the Continued Effectiveness of an Antimicrobial Stewardship Program in Preterm Infants

Background: There are wide variations in antibiotic use in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Limited data are available on antimicrobial stewardship (AS) programs and long-term maintenance of AS interventions in preterm very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants. Methods: We extended a single-centre observational study carried out in an Italian NICU. Three periods were compared: I. "baseline" (2011-2012), II. "intervention" (2016-2017), and III. "maintenance" (2020-2021). Intensive training of medical and nursing staff on AS occurred between periods I and II. AS protocols and algorithms were maintained and implemented between periods II and III. Results: There were 111, 119, and 100 VLBW infants in periods I, II, and III, respectively. In the "intervention period", there was a reduction in antibiotic use, reported as days of antibiotic therapy per 1000 patient days (215 vs. 302, p < 0.01). In the "maintenance period", the number of culture-proven sepsis increased. Nevertheless, antibiotic exposure of uninfected VLBW infants was lower, while no sepsis-related deaths occurred. Our restriction was mostly directed at shortening antibiotic regimens with a policy of 48 h rule-out sepsis (median days of early empiric antibiotics: 6 vs. 3 vs. 2 in periods I, II, and III, respectively, p < 0.001). Moreover, antibiotics administered for so-called culture-negative sepsis were reduced (22% vs. 11% vs. 6%, p = 0.002), especially in infants with a birth weight between 1000 and 1499 g. Conclusions: AS is feasible in preterm VLBW infants, and antibiotic use can be safely reduced. AS interventions, namely, the shortening of antibiotic courses in uninfected infants, can be sustained over time with periodic clinical audits and daily discussion of antimicrobial therapies among staff members

Telethon Network of Genetic Biobanks: a key service for diagnosis and research on rare diseases

Several examples have always illustrated how access to large numbers of biospecimens and associated data plays a pivotal role in the identification of disease genes and the development of pharmaceuticals. Hence, allowing researchers to access to significant numbers of quality samples and data, genetic biobanks are a powerful tool in basic, translational and clinical research into rare diseases. Recently demand for well-annotated and properly-preserved specimens is growing at a high rate, and is expected to grow for years to come. The best effective solution to this issue is to enhance the potentialities of well-managed biobanks by building a network.Here we report a 5-year experience of the Telethon Network of Genetic Biobanks (TNGB), a non-profit association of Italian repositories created in 2008 to form a virtually unique catalogue of biospecimens and associated data, which presently lists more than 750 rare genetic defects. The process of TNGB harmonisation has been mainly achieved through the adoption of a unique, centrally coordinated, IT infrastructure, which has enabled (i) standardisation of all the TNGB procedures and activities; (ii) creation of an updated TNGB online catalogue, based on minimal data set and controlled terminologies; (iii) sample access policy managed via a shared request control panel at web portal. TNGB has been engaged in disseminating information on its services into both scientific/biomedical - national and international - contexts, as well as associations of patients and families. Indeed, during the last 5-years national and international scientists extensively used the TNGB with different purposes resulting in more than 250 scientific publications. In addition, since its inception the TNGB is an associated member of the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure and recently joined the EuroBioBank network. Moreover, the involvement of patients and families, leading to the formalization of various agreements between TNGB and Patients' Associations, has demonstrated how promoting Biobank services can be instrumental in gaining a critical mass of samples essential for research, as well as, raising awareness, trust and interest of the general public in Biobanks. This article focuses on some fundamental aspects of networking and demonstrates how the translational research benefits from a sustained infrastructure

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation