Scenario-led habitat modelling of land use change impacts on key species

© 2015 Gearyet al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km 2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of opencanopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse

High-Flexion Total Knee Replacement: Functional Outcome at One Year

Implants designed for enhanced flexion offer the prospect of improved function after total knee replacement (TKR). Whereas most studies evaluating these implants have focused on the range of knee flexion achieved, this study investigated the quality of function in deep knee flexion. The influences of residual pain and maximum flexion angle on function in deep knee flexion were also examined. Eighty-three patients (100 knees) were prospectively followed for 1 year after TKR with a rotating-platform posterior-stabilized high-flexion prosthesis. Range of motion was measured and Knee Society scores were calculated. A questionnaire evaluated residual knee pain and function in high-flexion activities. Mean Knee Society score was 95, and mean knee flexion was 125°, yet 20% of patients could neither kneel, nor squat, nor sit on their heels. Fifty-seven percent were able to kneel without significant difficulty; 69% were able to squat without significant difficulty; and 46% were able to sit on their heels without significant difficulty. Function in deep flexion correlated with pain scores but did not correlate with knee flexion angles or Knee Society scores. Results 1 year after TKR with a rotating-platform posterior-stabilized high-flexion prosthesis are encouraging, but one in five patients remain significantly limited in high-flexion activities