How Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election outcome was forecasted with geodemographics and public sentiment analytics

In 2015, Nigeria held one of the most fiercely contested presidential elections in the nation’s recent democratic history. The outcome of the election was expected to exert significant influence on democratic practices on the African continent. The stiffness of the contest also meant that it was difficult to predict the likely winner of the election. This paper summarizes how an empirical approach was used to forecast the outcome of the election by modeling public sentiment data-set using a geodemographic framework. Results indicate that the main electorates that determined the outcome of the election were situated in thirteen battleground states. Additionally, results showed that two years before the presidential election, Goodluck Jonathan’s public approval ratings on corruption, insecurity, and the economy (the main drivers of the 2015 election) had nose-dived across many of the battleground states. This eventually contributed toward his loss

Imports and isotopes: a modern baseline study for interpreting Iron Age and Roman trade in fallow deer antlers

The European Fallow deer (Dama dama dama) became extinct in the British Isles and most of continental Europe at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum, with the species becoming restricted to an Anatolian refugium (Masseti et al. 2008). Human-mediated reintroductions resulted in fallow populations in Rhodes, Sicily, Mallorca, Iberia and other parts of western Europe (Sykes et al. 2013). Eventually, the species was brought to Britain by the Romans during the 1st century AD, with a breeding population being established at Fishbourne Roman Palace (Sykes et al. 2011). The human influence on the present-day distribution of the species makes it particularly interesting from a zooarchaeological perspective. This paper describes my MSc research, as part of the AHRC-funded project Dama International: Fallow Deer and European Society 6000 BC–AD 1600, looking at antlers from Iron Age and Roman sites in Britain for evidence of trade in body parts and whether this can be elucidated by a parallel stable isotope study of modern fallow antlers of known provenance

Strong population structure in a species manipulated by humans since the Neolithic: The European fallow deer (Dama dama dama)

Species that have been translocated and otherwise manipulated by humans may show patterns of population structure that reflect those interactions. At the same time, natural processes shape populations, including behavioural characteristics like dispersal potential and breeding system. In Europe, a key factor is the geography and history of climate change through the Pleistocene. During glacial maxima throughout that period, species in Europe with temperate distributions were forced south, becoming distributed among the isolated peninsulas represented by Anatolia, Italy and Iberia. Understanding modern patterns of diversity depends on understanding these historical population dynamics. Traditionally, European fallow deer (Dama dama dama) are thought to have been restricted to refugia in Anatolia and possibly Sicily and the Balkans. However, the distribution of this species was also greatly influenced by human-mediated translocations. We focus on fallow deer to better understand the relative influence of these natural and anthropogenic processes. We compared modern fallow deer putative populations across a broad geographic range using microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA loci. The results revealed highly insular populations, depauperate of genetic variation and significantly differentiated from each other. This is consistent with the expectations of drift acting on populations founded by small numbers of individuals, and reflects known founder populations in the north. However, there was also evidence for differentiation among (but not within) physically isolated regions in the south, including Iberia. In those regions we find evidence for a stronger influence from natural processes than may be expected for a species with such strong, known anthropogenic influence

Size and shape of the Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa), with a view to the reconstruction of its Holocene history

A large assortment of skulls and skeletons of recent wild boar (Sus scrofa) from across the world has been used to collect tooth and bone measurements that can be compared to those from archaeological specimens. The data provide useful information for a reconstruction of the Holocene history of the species. The evidence collected so far highlights the great variability of the species and provides a baseline to be used for the interpretation of ancient material. It is shown that not only the size, but also the shape of teeth and mandibles can help in highlighting patterns of variability in wild boar from different areas. A number of geographic trends are identified in the variation of S. scrofa across its range, mainly concerning the differentiation of insular forms, and the existence of South–North and West–East clines. Other factors such as hybridisation with domestic stock, feralisation and human-induced movement of animals may also play an important role. A comparison with ancient material emphasises the existence of similarities as well as differences between modern and ancient populations. Although some of the geographic trends identified on the basis of the analysis of modern material seem to date back to early Holocene times, the morphological history of the species appears to be complex, and in more than one area fluctuations in body size seem to have occurred