Confidence bands for multiplicative hazards models:Flexible resampling approaches

We propose new resampling-based approaches to construct asymptotically valid time-simultaneous confidence bands for cumulative hazard functions in multistate Cox models. In particular, we exemplify the methodology in detail for the simple Cox model with time-dependent covariates, where the data may be subject to independent right-censoring or left-truncation. We use simulations to investigate their finite sample behavior. Finally, the methods are utilized to analyze two empirical examples with survival and competing risks data

Non-Destructive Identification of Cold and Extremely Localized Single Molecular Ions

A simple and non-destructive method for identification of a single molecular ion sympathetically cooled by a single laser cooled atomic ion in a linear Paul trap is demonstrated. The technique is based on a precise determination of the molecular ion mass through a measurement of the eigenfrequency of a common motional mode of the two ions. The demonstrated mass resolution is sufficiently high that a particular molecular ion species can be distinguished from other equally charged atomic or molecular ions having the same total number of nucleons

Hungarian International Development Cooperation: Context, Stakeholders and Performance

This paper explores the domestic and international context of Hungary's emerging international development policy. Specifically, it looks at three factors that may influence how this policy operates: membership in the European Union (EU) and potential ‘Europeanization’, Hungary's wider foreign policy strategy, and the influence of domestic stakeholders. In order to uncover how these factors affect the country's international development policy, semi-structured interviews were carried out with the main stakeholders. The main conclusions are: (1) While accession to the EU did play a crucial role in restarting Hungary's international development policy, the integration has had little effect since then; (2) international development policy seems to serve mainly Hungary's regional strategic foreign policy and economic interests, and not its global development goals; and (3) although all the domestic development stakeholders are rather weak, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) still seems to play a dominating role. Convergence with European requirements and best practices is, therefore, clearly hindered by foreign policy interests and also by the weakness of non- governmental stakeholders

Lifetime measurement of the metastable 3d 2D5/2 state in the 40Ca+ ion using the shelving technique on a few-ion string

We present a measurement of the lifetime of the metastable 3d 2D5/2 state in the 40Ca+ ion, using the so-called shelving technique on a string of five Doppler laser-cooled ions in a linear Paul trap. A detailed account of the data analysis is given, and systematic effects due to unwanted excitation processes and collisions with background gas atoms are discussed and estimated. From a total of 6805 shelving events, we obtain a lifetime tau=1149+/-14(stat.)+/-4(sys.)ms, a result which is in agreement with the most recent measurements.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures. Submitted for publicatio

Instrumental variable estimation in semi-parametric additive hazards models

Instrumental variable methods allow unbiased estimation in the presence of unmeasured confounders when an appropriate instrumental variable is available. Two-stage least-squares and residual inclusion methods have recently been adapted to additive hazard models for censored survival data. The semi-parametric additive hazard model which can include time-independent and time-dependent covariate effects is particularly suited for the two-stage residual inclusion method, since it allows direct estimation of time-independent covariate effects without restricting the effect of the residual on the hazard. In this article we prove asymptotic normality of two-stage residual inclusion estimators of regression coefficients in a semi-parametric additive hazard model with time-independent and time-dependent covariate effects. We consider the cases of continuous and binary exposure. Estimation of the conditional survival function given observed covariates is discussed and a resampling scheme is proposed to obtain simultaneous confidence bands. The new methods are compared to existing ones in a simulation study and are applied to a real data set. The proposed methods perform favourably especially in cases with exposure-dependent censoring

The effect of a diet with fructan-rich chicory roots on intestinal helminths and microbiota with special focus on Bifidobacteria and Campylobacter in piglets around weaning

The restrictions on the use of antibiotic and anthelmintic treatments in organic pig farming necessitate alternative non-medical control strategies. Therefore, the antibiotic and parasite-reducing effect of a fructan-rich (prebiotic) diet of dried chicory was investigated in free-ranging piglets. Approximately half of 67 piglets from 9 litters were experimentally infected with Ascaris suum and Trichuris suis in the suckling period (1 to 7 weeks of age) and 58 of the piglets were challenged daily with E. coli O138:F8 for 9 days after weaning to induce weaning diarrhoea. The litters were fed either chicory (30% DM) or a control diet. The effect of chicory on intestinal helminths, intestinal microbiota, especially Bifidobacteria and Campylobacter spp., and E. coli post-weaning diarrhoea was assessed. The weight gain of the piglets was not impaired significantly by chicory. The intestinal A. suum worm burden was reduced by 64% (P=0.034) in the chicory-fed piglets, whereas these same piglets had 63% more T. suis worms (P=0.016). Feeding with chicory elicited no changes among the main bacterial groups in ileum according to terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis. However, the terminal-restriction fragment (T-RF) 208 bp, which may belong to Lachnospiraceae, was stimulated by the chicory feed (P=0.03), and T-RF 370 bp that matches Enterobacter belonging to the Enterobacteria was reduced (P=0.004). Additionally, chicory increased the level of Bifidobacteria (P=0.001) and the faecal Campylobacter excretion level was transitorily reduced in chicory-fed piglets at 7 weeks of age (P=0.029). Unfortunately, it was not possible to assess the effect of chicory on post-weaning diarrhoea as it did not develop. In conclusion, feeding piglets chicory around the time of weaning caused complex changes of the microbiota and parasite communities within the intestinal tract, and feeding piglets chicory may therefore serve as an animal-friendly strategy to control pathogens

Molar pregnancy and childhood cancer: a population-based linkage study from Denmark

We observed a relative risk of 1.40 (95% confidence interval; 0.86–2.16) for cancers diagnosed under the age 20 in 6192 offspring of 3431 mothers with a molar pregnancy, indicating it is not a major determinant of childhood cancer

Boundless plains

Scholarships & Prizes Office. University of Sydne