Adjusting for bias introduced by instrumental variable estimation in the Cox Proportional Hazards Model

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used for estimating average treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the capability of existing IV procedures, and most notably the two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) procedure recommended for use in nonlinear contexts, to account for unmeasured confounders in the Cox proportional hazard model is unclear. We show that instrumenting an endogenous treatment induces an unmeasured covariate, referred to as an individual frailty in survival analysis parlance, which if not accounted for leads to bias. We propose a new procedure that augments 2SRI with an individual frailty and prove that it is consistent under certain conditions. The finite sample-size behavior is studied across a broad set of conditions via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the proposed methodology is used to estimate the average effect of carotid endarterectomy versus carotid artery stenting on the mortality of patients suffering from carotid artery disease. Results suggest that the 2SRI-frailty estimator generally reduces the bias of both point and interval estimators compared to traditional 2SRI.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 4 table

Finding the best thresholds of FEV1 and dyspnea to predict 5-year survival in COPD patients: the COCOMICS study

BACKGROUND: FEV1 is universally used as a measure of severity in COPD. Current thresholds are based on expert opinion and not on evidence. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify the best FEV1 (% predicted) and dyspnea (mMRC) thresholds to predict 5-yr survival in COPD patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a patient-based pooled analysis of eleven COPD Spanish cohorts (COCOMICS). Survival analysis, ROC curves, and C-statistics were used to identify and compare the best FEV1 (%) and mMRC scale thresholds that predict 5-yr survival. RESULTS: A total of 3,633 patients (93% men), totaling 15,878 person-yrs. were included, with a mean age 66.4 ± 9.7, and predicted FEV1 of 53.8% (± 19.4%). Overall 975 (28.1%) patients died at 5 years. The best thresholds that spirometrically split the COPD population were: mild ≥ 70%, moderate 56-69%, severe 36-55%, and very severe ≤ 35%. Survival at 5 years was 0.89 for patients with FEV1 ≥ 70 vs. 0.46 in patients with FEV1 ≤ 35% (H.R: 6; 95% C.I.: 4.69-7.74). The new classification predicts mortality significantly better than dyspnea (mMRC) or FEV1 GOLD and BODE cutoffs (all p<0.001). Prognostic reliability is maintained at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. In younger patients, survival was similar for FEV1 (%) values between 70% and 100%, whereas in the elderly the relationship between FEV1 (%) and mortality was inversely linear. CONCLUSIONS: The best thresholds for 5-yr survival were obtained stratifying FEV1 (%) by ≥ 70%, 56-69%, 36-55%, and ≤ 35%. These cutoffs significantly better predict mortality than mMRC or FEV1 (%) GOLD and BODE cutoffs

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A-4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean +/- SD age was 63.9 +/- 9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66) for GOLD 2019. The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system

H3K4me1 marks DNA regions hypomethylated during aging in human stem and differentiated cells

In differentiated cells, aging is associated with hypermethylation of DNA regions enriched in repressive histone post-translational modifications. However, the chromatin marks associated with changes in DNA methylation in adult stem cells during lifetime are still largely unknown. Here, DNA methylation profiling of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) obtained from individuals aged 2 to 92 yr identified 18,735 hypermethylated and 45,407 hypomethylated CpG sites associated with aging. As in differentiated cells, hypermethylated sequences were enriched in chromatin repressive marks. Most importantly, hypomethylated CpG sites were strongly enriched in the active chromatin mark H3K4me1 in stem and differentiated cells, suggesting this is a cell type-independent chromatin signature of DNA hypomethylation during aging. Analysis of scedasticity showed that interindividual variability of DNA methylation increased during aging in MSCs and differentiated cells, providing a new avenue for the identification of DNA methylation changes over time. DNA methylation profiling of genetically identical individuals showed that both the tendency of DNA methylation changes and scedasticity depended on nongenetic as well as genetic factors. Our results indicate that the dynamics of DNA methylation during aging depend on a complex mixture of factors that include the DNA sequence, cell type, and chromatin context involved and that, depending on the locus, the changes can be modulated by genetic and/or external factors

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A–4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66–0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63–0.66) for GOLD 2019

Large-scale external validation and comparison of prognostic models: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background: External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD. Methods: We relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary care in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. These studies include globally 15,762 patients with COPD (1871 deaths and 42,203 person years of follow-up). We used network meta-analysis adapted to multiple score comparison (MSC), following a frequentist two-stage approach; thus, we were able to compare all scores in a single analytical framework accounting for correlations among scores within cohorts. We assessed transitivity, heterogeneity, and inconsistency and provided a performance ranking of the prognostic scores. Results: Depending on data availability, between two and nine prognostic scores could be calculated for each cohort. The BODE score (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) had a median area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679 [1st quartile-3rd quartile = 0.655-0.733] across cohorts. The ADO score (age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction) showed the best performance for predicting mortality (difference AUC(ADO) - AUC(BODE) = 0.015 [95% confidence interval (CI) = - 0.002 to 0.032]; p = 0.08) followed by the updated BODE (AUCBODE updated - AUCBODE = 0.008 [95% CI = -0.005 to +0.022]; p = 0.23). The assumption of transitivity was not violated. Heterogeneity across direct comparisons was small, and we did not identify any local or global inconsistency. Conclusions: Our analyses showed best discriminatory performance for the ADO and updated BODE scores in patients with COPD. A limitation to be addressed in future studies is the extension of MSC network meta-analysis to measures of calibration. MSC network meta-analysis can be applied to prognostic scores in any medical field to identify the best scores, possibly paving the way for stratified medicine, public health, and research

Letter to the editor regarding: &quot;Development of the ProPal-COPD tool to identify patients with COPD for proactive palliative care&quot;

Pere Almagro,1 Pablo Martinez Camblor21Multimorbidity Patients Unit, Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Universitario Mutua de Terrassa, Universidad de Barcelona, Terrassa, Barcelona; 2The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USAWe read with interest the recent article by Duenk et al entitled &ldquo;Development of the ProPal-COPD tool to identify patients with COPD for proactive palliative care&rdquo; recently published in the International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.1 We fully agree with the authors on the capital importance of proactive palliative care (PPC) in COPD, as well as its underutilization. Any article that contributes to increasing knowledge of PCC and its use with COPD patients who can benefit from it is to be celebrated. We also agree with the authors on the unpredictability of prognosis in COPD, especially the uncertain evolution of severe exacerbations and the impact of comorbidities.View the original paper by Duenk and colleagues

A Contingent Valuation Test for Measuring the Construct Validity of Willingness-to-Pay Estimates Derived from Choice Experiments

We introduce a protocol for measuring the construct validity of competing willingness-to-pay (WTP) distributions derived from mixed logit models. The protocol is based on a two-round survey. Round 1 consists in a standard discrete choice experiment (DCE) sample survey, at the end of which competing models are estimated. Round 2 introduces additional respondents who, in addition to taking part in the DCE, are asked to identify the money value interval that better reflects their preferences using a set of values drawn from the estimated range of WTPs obtained from competing models estimated on the previous sample

A contingent valuation test for measuring the construct validity of willingness-to-pay estimates derived from choice-experiments.

We introduce a protocol for measuring the construct validity of competing willingness-to-pay (WTP) distributions derived from mixed logit models. The protocol is based on a two-round survey. Round 1 consists in a standard discrete choice experiment (DCE) sample survey, at the end of which competing models are estimated. Round 2 introduces additional respondents who, in addition to taking part in the DCE, are asked to identify the money value interval that better reflects their preferences using a set of values drawn from the estimated range of WTPs obtained from competing models estimated on the previous sample

A Contingent Valuation Test for Measuring the Construct Validity of Willingness-to-pay Estimates derived from choice-experiments

We introduce a protocol for measuring the construct validity of competing willingness-to-pay (WTP) distributions derived from mixed logit models. The protocol is based on a two-round survey. Round 1 consists in a standard discrete choice experiment (DCE) sample survey, at the end of which competing models are estimated. Round 2 introduces additional respondents who, in addition to taking part in the DCE, are asked to identify the money value interval that better reflects their preferences using a set of values drawn from the estimated range of WTPs obtained from competing models estimated on the previous sample