IMPACTS OF POLICY REFORM ON SUSTAINABILITY OF HILL FARMING IN UK BY MEANS OF BIO-ECONOMIC MODELLING

Hill farming in UK is experiencing very difficult economic circumstances and many farmers rely on subsidies provided by the government for a large fraction of their income. The Peak District National Park is used as a case study to examine how farmers might respond to current policy changes � in particular, the move from area- and headage-based payments to the Single Farm Payment, and how optimal business plans should respond to these changes. The objective of this paper is thus to develop production models that predict how farmers will respond to changing policy framework conditions. For this purpose socio-economic surveys were carried out on 44 sample farms, in order to investigate how the land is managed on hill farms including ongoing policies and future farm management planning. Based on these surveys a series of representative farm linear programming models was developed, which represent typical farm types in the uplands in the Peak District. In this study the focus is on typical sheep and beef farm type, the most common in this region. This model is used to calculate the effect of different policies, carried out under CAP reform, on incomes, land use and the intensity of production. We also consider the impacts of a complete removal of subsidy.CAP reform, Single Farm Payment, hill farming, linear programming model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

What personal and environmental factors determine frequency of urban greenspace use?

For many people, urban greenspaces are the only places where they encounter the natural world. This is concerning as there is growing evidence demonstrating that human well-being is enhanced by exposure to nature. There is, therefore, a compelling argument to increase how frequently people use urban greenspaces. This may be achieved in two complementary ways by encouraging: (I) non-users to start visiting urban greenspaces; (II) existing users to visit more often. Here we examine the factors that influence frequency of greenspace visitation in the city of Sheffield, England. We demonstrate that people who visit a site least frequently state lower self-reported psychological well-being. We hypothesised that a combination of socio-demographic characteristics of the participants, and the biophysical attributes of the greenspaces that they were visiting, would be important in influencing visit frequency. However, socio-demographic characteristics (income, age, gender) were not found to be predictors. In contrast, some biophysical attributes of greenspaces were significantly related to use frequency. Frequent use was more likely when the time taken to reach a greenspace was shorter and for sites with a higher index of greenspace neglect, but were unrelated to tree cover or bird species richness. We related these results to the motivations that people provide for their visits. Infrequent users were more likely to state motivations associated with the quality of the space, while frequent users gave motivations pertaining to physical, repeated activities. This suggests that there may be no simple way to manage greenspaces to maximise their use across user cohorts as the motivations for visits are very different

Can REDD+ help the conservation of restricted-range island species?:insights from the endemism hotspot of São Tomé

REDD+ aims to offset greenhouse gas emissions through “Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation”. Some authors suggest that REDD+ can bring additional benefits for biodiversity, namely for the conservation of extinction-prone restricted-range species. Here, we assess this claim, using São Tomé Island (Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe) as a case study. We quantified the abundance of bird and tree species, and calculated the aboveground carbon stocks across a gradient of land-use intensity. We found a strong spatial congruence between carbon and the presence and abundance of endemic species, supporting the potential of REDD+ to protect these taxa. We then assessed if REDD+ could help protect the forests of São Tomé and Príncipe. To do so, we used OSIRIS simulations to predict country-level deforestation under two different REDD+ designs. These simulations showed that REDD+ could promote the loss of forests in São Tomé and Príncipe through leakage. This happened even when additional payments for biodiversity were included in the simulations, and despite São Tomé and Príncipe having the fourth highest carbon stocks per land area and the second highest biodiversity values according to the OSIRIS database. These results show weaknesses of OSIRIS as a planning tool, and demonstrate that the benefits that REDD+ might bring for biodiversity are strongly dependent on its careful implementation. We recommend that payment for ecosystem services programmes such as REDD+ develop safeguards to ensure that biodiversity co-benefits are met and perverse outcomes are avoided across all tropical countries. In particular, we advise specific safeguards regarding the conservation of extinction-prone groups, such as island restricted-range species

The spatial and temporal characteristics of urban heat island intensity: implications for East Africa’s urban development.

8. Li X, Stringer LC, Dallimer M. 2021.Climate 9 (4) (special issue on The Built Environment in a Changing Climate: Interactions Challenges and Perspectives); 51. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli904005

The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: implications for farm incomes, land use and upland ecology

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas, but the recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment would lead to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained

Likely Impacts of Future Agricultural Change on Upland Farming and Biodiversity

Recent decades have witnessed substantial losses of biodiversity in Europe, partly driven by the ecological changes associated with intensification of agricultural production. These changes have particularly affected avian (bird) diversity in marginal areas such as the uplands of the UK. We developed integrated ecological-economic models, using eight different indicators of biodiversity based on avian species richness and individual bird densities. The models represent six different types of farms which are typical for the UK uplands, and were used to assess the outcomes of different agricultural futures. Our results show that the impacts of these future agricultural scenarios on farm incomes, land use and biodiversity are very diverse across policy scenarios and farm types. Moreover, each policy scenario produces un-equal distributions of farm income changes, and gains and losses in alternative biodiversity indicators. This shows that generalisations of the effects of land use change on biodiversity can be misleading. Our results also suggest that a focus on umbrella species or indicators (such as total richness) can miss important compositional effects

A social-ecological systems approach is necessary to achieve land degradation neutrality

Viewing humans as drivers of change operating outside the natural environment is unhelpful for defining interventions that effectively manage change and complexity. Indeed, there is now broad agreement that en-vironmental governance needs to consider integrated social-ecological systems (SES) in order to tackle theworld’s grand challenges of land degradation. This requires a more differentiated, innovative approach that considers how changes in SES shape the functioning of land systems as a whole, and the synergies and trade-off these changes may produce. In this study, we identify and discuss some of the ways SES science and practice can inspire progress towards land degradation neutrality (LDN) outcomes in an integrated manner, through synthesis of literature and relevant documents related to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD). We do these by considering: (i) how LDN has been approached to date and the challenges likely to undermine progress towards achieving it; and (ii) an SES-based LDN approach relevant to the neutrality agenda, in particular, by describing how LDN might be thought of differently through an SES lens. We argue that an SES approach focusing on: (i)“people as part of nature”, not“people and nature”; and (ii) the frame of reference against which neutrality can be assessed across temporal and spatial dimensions, is necessary to both inform policy and guide actions of the different groups involved in avoiding and combating land degradation. Such an(integrated) approach adds a dimension (to achieving neutrality goals) not previously explored in sustainable land management and LDN research. Important next steps in operationalising the SES-based LDN approach involve empirical and field case studies, requiring interdisciplinary, mixed method technique

Greenspaces and Human Well-Being : Perspectives from a Rapidly Urbanising Low-Income Country

Compelling evidence demonstrates links between greenspaces and human well-being. However, the existing evidence has a strong bias towards high-income countries. Rapidly urbanising cities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain largely unexplored. The rising prevalence of mental disorders in LMICs highlights the need to better understand the role greenspaces can play in mitigating mental ill-health. We carried out a cross-sectional household survey to investigate links between measures of greenspace exposure and human well-being, and tested pathways that could underpin any such interactions in Kathmandu, a rapidly urbanising low-income city in Nepal. While we found no consistent relationship between measures of greenspace exposure and human well-being outcomes, we provide evidence that greenspaces in a rapidly urbanising low-income setting could be important for encouraging physical activity and fostering social cohesion. Further, we revealed that a medium perceived variety of biodiversity attributes of greenspaces was associated with the highest levels of physical activity and social cohesion. Our findings support the view that greenspaces in LMICs may be less likely to provide well-being benefits. Moreover, medium levels of biodiversity may best promote well-being in LMICs. More research is needed to understand how greenspaces can support human well-being in LMICs

How urbanisation alters the intensity of the urban heat island in a tropical African city

Due to the combined effects of urban growth and climate change, rapid urbanisation is particularly challenging in African cities. Areas that will house a large proportion of the urban population in the future coincide with where natural hazards are expected to occur, and where hazard risk management institutions, knowledge, and capacity are often lacking. One of the challenges posed by rapid urbanisation is the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, whereby urban areas are warmer than the surrounding rural areas. This study investigates urbanisation patterns and alterations in surface UHI (SUHI) intensity for the Kampala urban cluster, Uganda. Analyses show that between 1995 and 2017, Kampala underwent extensive changes to its urban built-up area. From the centre of the city to adjoining non-built up areas in all directions, the urban land cover increased from 12,133 ha in 1995 to 25,389 ha in 2016. The area of SUHI intensity in Kampala expanded significantly over the 15-year period of study, expanding from 22,910 ha in 2003 to 27,900 ha in 2016, while the annual daytime SUHI of 2.2°C in 2003 had decreased to 1.9°C by 2017. Although SUHI intensity decreased in some parts of the city, elsewhere it increased, suggesting that urbanisation does not always lead to a deterioration of environmental conditions. We postulate that urban development may therefore not necessarily create an undesirable impact on local climate if it is properly managed. Rapidly growing cities in Africa and elsewhere should ensure that the dynamics of their development are directed towards mitigating potentially harmful environmental impacts, such as UHI effect through careful planning that considers both bluespaces and greenspaces