Spatio-temporal analysis of infectious diseases

Los sistemas de vigilancia de salud pública colectan y analizan datos que soportan los programas de control y prevención de enfermedades en todo el mundo. En Colombia, el sistema de vigilancia en salud pública (SIVIGILA) esta encargado del flujo de datos e información de la vigilancia de las enfermedades de notificación obligatoria que afectan la salud de los Colombianos. Las enfermedades transmitidas por mosquitos tales como el dengue, la malaria, la fiebre amarilla, la enfermedad del virus del Chikungunya, la enfermedad del virus del Zika (EVZ) entre otras afectan seriamente la salud de las poblaciones a través de todo el país. Dentro de estas enfermedades se destacan la enfermedad del dengue y la EVZ. El dengue es responsable de una gran cantidad de personas enfermas con algunos casos de mortalidad, desde la decada de los ochenta en el siglo veinte, mientras que la EVZ se ha reportado en el país desde el segundo semestre del a˜no 2015 asociada a severos síndromes neurológicos en neonatos y adultos. En esta tesis por compendio de publicaciones se exploran métodos estadísticos jerárquicos Bayesianos para la evaluación del riesgo espacial y temporal del dengue y la EVZ en varios niveles de agregación temporal y espacial de los datos post-procesados del sistema de vigilancia en Colombia, especialmente motivados por explorar los problemas y desafíos de la implementación de estos modelos. La estructura de la tesis consiste de un capítulo introductorio, y ocho capítulos que corresponden a un número igual de artículos de investigación. El capítulo uno es un resumen general de la disertación que presenta los objetivos, la metodología, resultados y conclusiones del trabajo de investigación. El segundo capítulo analiza datos temporalmente agregados de casos de dengue y covariables meteorológicas asociadas a la enfermedad utilizando modelos con parámetros que varian en el tiempo. El capítulo tres estudia modelos espaciales de riesgo de dengue con parámetros que varian en el espacio y covariables derivadas de datos de sat´elite a nivel de ciudad. El capítulo cuatro explora modelos espacio-temporales de riesgo de dengue incluyendo covariables derivadas de datos de satélite con parámetros que varian en el tiempo a nivel de ciudad. El capítulo cinco desarrolla modelos espacio-temporales de varios niveles geográficos de agregación para la estimación de riesgo de dengue a nivel de ciudad. El sexto capítulo desarrolla la estimación del riesgo en paralelo de dengue y la EVZ a nivel de ciudad y de departamento. El capítulo siete desarrolla la estimación de riesgo conjunto de dengue y EVZ utilizando modelos multivariados jerárquicos Bayesianos a nivel de ciudad y de departamento. La estimación de los parámetros de los modelos en los capítulos dos, tres, cuatro y siete se desarrolla usando métodos de Monte Carlo de Cadenas de Markov, mientras que lo capítulos cinco y seis utilizan “integrated nested Laplace approximation” (INLA). Los capítulos ocho y nueve presentan modelos no-lineales para los datos acumulados de los casos de EVZ en diferentes ciudades de Colombia. El capítulo ocho realiza la estimación de los parámetros por medio del método de mínimos cuadrados no-lineales, mientras que el capítulo nueve utiliza Monte Carlo Hamiltoniano para el mismo objetivo.Public health surveillance systems collect and analyze data supporting programs of controlling and preventing diseases all around the world. In Colombia, the public health surveillance system (SIVIGILA) is in charge of the data and information flow for the surveillance of obligatory notification diseases affecting the Colombian population health. Diseases transmitted by mosquitoes such as dengue, malaria, yellow fever, Chikungunya fever, Zika virus disease (ZVD) among other seriously affect health populations along the country. Within these diseases, dengue and ZVD are highlighted. Dengue is responsible of a great burden of sick people with some cases of mortality since the eighties in the twenty century, while ZVD has been reported in the country since the second semester of year 2015 associated to severe neurological syndrome in newborns and adults. In this thesis by compendium of publications are explored hierarchical Bayesian statistical methods for the assessment of temporal and spatial dengue and ZVD risk at some temporal and spatial aggregation level using post-processed data obtained from the surveillance system in Colombia, specially motivated by exploring model implementation problems and challenges. The dissertation structure consist in one introductory chapter, and eight chapters corresponding to an equal number of research papers. Chapter one is an overall summary of the dissertation presenting the objectives, methodology, results and conclusions of the research work. The second chapter analyzes temporally aggregated data of dengue and meteorological covariates associated with the disease using dynamic models with time-varying parameters. The chapter three studies spatial models of dengue risk with space-varying parameters and covariates derived from satellite data at city-level. The chapter four explores spatio-temporal models of dengue risk including covariates derived from satellite data with time-varying parameters. The chapter five develops spatio-temporal models of dengue risk at two geographic levels of aggregation at city-level. The chapter six develops the parallel estimation of dengue and ZVD risk at departmental and city level. The chapter seven develops the joint estimation of dengue and ZVD risk using hierarchical Bayesian multivariate models at departmental and city level. Parameter estimation in chapters two, three, four, and seven are developed using Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods, while chapters five and six used ”integrated nested Laplace approximation” (INLA). The chapters eight and nine present nonlinear models for the cumulative data of the ZVD cases in several Colombian cities. The chapter eight makes parameter estimation by means of the nonlinear least squares, while chapter nine presents Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for the same objective

Relationship between strength and professional quality of life of nurses working hospital emergency departments

Producción CientíficaOptimal quality of professional life can allow coping with stressful situations and avoiding fatigue. This is instrumental in jobs undergoing very demanding situations, such as nurses working in Emergency Departments. In this study, we investigated the relationship between functional and physiological indicators and the quality of professional life in nurses of Emergency Departments of two public hospitals. Fifty-nine professionals participated in the study. Cortisol (an indicator of stress) and post-test lactate (an indicator of fatigue) were analyzed in saliva and in the blood, respectively, at the beginning and at the end of the morning shift. The CVP-35 survey (Spanish version of the QPL-35 questionnaire) was used to assess the quality of professional life. Post-dynamometry circulating lactate levels increased significantly; meanwhile, salivary cortisol decreased in participants at the end of the working shift. Regarding dynamometry, no significant changes were observed. CVP-35/QPL-35 scores did not show significant changes in participants from both hospitals in all dimensions analyzed. In conclusion, nurses participating in the study displayed adaptation to stress accompanied by an acceptable level of professional quality of life. However, certain fatigue appears at the end of the working day. Altogether, results suggest that a better organization must be implemented at work, improving ergonomic, safe, and healthy conditions

Effects of vitamin D in post-exercise muscle recovery. A systematic review and meta-analysis

Producción CientíficaVitamin D is a key micronutrient modulating function and health in skeletal muscle. Therefore, we sought to systematically review the role of vitamin D in muscle recovery. A search in different databases (PubMed/MEDLINE, WOS, Google Scholar, and Scopus) was carried out following PRISMA® and PICOS. The search period was from inception to April 2020. Changes in post-exercise muscle damage were quantified comparing experimental group vs. placebo in each study by using number of participants, standardized mean difference (SMD), and standard error of the SMD. Hedges’s g was used to calculate the SMDs for each study group and biased by the inverse of variance that allows calculating an overall effect and the 95% confidence interval (CI). The net vitamin D supplementation effect was calculated by subtracting the placebo SMD from SMD of the experimental group. The DerSimonian and Laird method was used as a random effect model, taking into account that the effect of vitamin D on muscular damage may vary according to the dose administered and additional moderators. Six studies were selected. In conclusion, regarding circulating levels of muscle biomarkers and additional limitations of the studies, it cannot be concluded that vitamin D supplementation exerts an effect in post-exercise muscle recovery. Likely, the anti-inflammatory action of vitamin D is quicker than the recovery of tissue structure and function. This aspect is pending verification in future research.Instituto de Salud Carlos III - Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (CB12/03/30038

Genetic resources and product diversification in a transitioning coffee agroecosystem in Mecayapan, Veracruz, Mexico

Objective: To analyze a coffee agroecosystem in agroecological transition, as an alternative for the use and conservation of resources. For this, an agroecological design was carried out associated with three legumes and one cucurbit in coffee cultivation. Design/methodology/approach: Collection and identification of genetic resources present in the agroecosystem, agroecological design associated with three legumes and one cucurbit in coffee cultivation; zig-zag soil sampling for physical, chemical, and biological analyses, data analysis using JASP version 0.16.2. Results: Identification of 42 species of weeds with various uses, as well as the criteria for association of species according to use, the soil analyzes showed that there is a significant connection between micronutrients and nitrogen-fixing bacteria, the variable Boron has influence in the development of nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Limitations on study/implications: The results are applicable to the agroecological model in transition that is presented. Findings/conclusions: Coffee agroecosystems in agroecological transition are slow processes, but they contribute to improving soil conditions. They allow the reappearance of weed species with some use. There is a significant correlation between Boron and the development of nitrogen-fixing bacteria, likewise the physical properties have a direct relationship with their development. Keywords: agroecology, transition, agroecosystemObjective: To analyze a coffee agroecosystem undergoing an agroecological transition —considered as an alternative for the efficient use and the conservation of resources— through an agroecological association design with three legumes and one cucurbit in coffee cultivation. Design/Methodology/Approach: Collection and identification of genetic resources found in the agroecosystem; agroecological association design with three legumes and one cucurbit in a coffee crop; zig-zag soil sampling for physical, chemical, and biological analyses; data analysis using JASP software version 0.16.2. Results: We identified 42 weed species with various uses within the coffee agroecosystem, as well as the criteria for the association of species according to use. The soil analysis showed a significant correlation between micronutrients and nitrogen-fixing bacteria. The boron variable also influences the growth of such bacteria. Study Limitations/Implications: The results apply to the agroecological model in transition presented. Findings/Conclusions: Agroecological transition in coffee agroecosystems is slow but contributes to improving soil conditions. It also allows for the reappearance of usable weed species. There is a significant correlation between boron and the development of nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Likewise, the physical properties of soil have a direct impact on the growth of such bacteri

Influence of subclinical endometritis on the reproductive performance of dairy cows

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of subclinical endometritis (SE) on the reproductive performance of dairy cows. Ninety-four dairy cows of parity 1 to 8, distributed in 25 herds, were examined once between 30 and 45 days in milk using transrectal palpation, vaginoscopy and ultrasonography. A cytological sample of the endometrium was taken only from cows with an apparent healthy uterus (n=65). Serum glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, non-esterified fatty acids, β-hydroxybutyrate, total proteins, albumin, urea and hepatic enzymes were analyzed. Reproductive indexes were recorded during the next 11 months. Endometrial cytology was considered indicative of SE if percentage of polymorphonuclear neutrophils was superior to 5% of all cells present in the smear, except erythrocytes. Results indicated that 14.9% of the cows sampled for uterine cytology had SE, and that healthy cows become pregnant significantly before than those with SE (hazard ratio=2.35; 95% confidece interval: 1.05-5.3). From all the metabolic and productive variables analyzed, only triglycerides affected negatively to reproduction; serum albumin concentration, body condition score and milk production had positive effects on the reproductive performance. In conclusion, our results indicate that SE has a negative impact on reproductive performance and uterine cytology is necessary to diagnose it since almost 15% of the affected animals were not detected by other diagnosis methodsXunta de Galicia (Programa Sectorial de Medio Rural, Proyecto Ref. PGIDIT07MRU002E) and FEFRIGA, Santiago de Compostela, SpainS

INFLUENCIA DE LA RUGOSIDAD INICIAL EN EL COMPORTAMIENTO TRIBOLÓGICO DE UN ACERO H13 NITRURADO

Se investigó la influencia de la rugosidad superficial en el comportamiento tribológico de un acero AISI H13 nitrurado mediante ensayos de fricción en seco. Se prepararon tres diferentes rugosidades en los rangos de 0.04 a 0.41 µm. Se observó que para superficies más rugosas se obtienen volúmenes perdidos y factores de desgaste más elevados. Por otro lado, el coeficiente de fricción tuvo una tendencia a incrementar con rugosidades mayores a 0.1 µm; mientras que debajo de ese valor, los coeficientes de fricción son muy similares. El mecanismo de desgaste predominante fue abrasivo pero también se pudo observó deformación plástica y oxidación de la superficie.Palabra(s) Clave(s): Acero H13, desgaste, fricción, nitrurado, rugosidad

First observations on courtship and nesting behavior of Kinosternon vogti (Testudines: Kinosternidae)

Kinosternon vogti is one of the most narrowly distributed kinosternid turtles in Mexico; it is apparently restricted to small streams and ponds in the urban area of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco and Bahía de Banderas, Nayarit. There is little information on the biology of this recently described and endangered species, particularly regarding reproductive biology. We report reproductive behaviors on two mating pairs of K. vogti in captivity. Males exhibited combat for copulating with female. During courtship, the male blocks the female movements, the female bites male´s rostrum scute, the male displays titillation posture, and finally the male moves to position himself above the female. The reproductive season begins with courtship in August-September and ends with egg-laying in November-December. Six and two eggs per clutch (non-viable eggs; average size, n = 5: 28.83 ± 1.19 x 15.95 ± 0.55 mm). Minimal reproductive size of females and males were CL (carapace length) = 88.37 mm and CL = 78.7 mm, respectively.Asociación Herpetológica Argentin

Percepciones sociales de la covid-19 en niños y adolescentes atletas convalecientes durante 2021 en Cienfuegos

La investigación pretende develar las percepciones sociales de la Covid-19 que tienen niños y adolescentes atletas de la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva de Cienfuegos que padecieron la enfermedad. La investigación siguió un enfoque cualitativo constructivo interpretativo. Para recoger la información se aplicó el cuestionario cualitativo percepción social de la Covid-19, accediendo a 75 atletas de la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva de Cienfuegos que enfermaron de Covid-19 durante el año 2021. La interpretación de los resultados se realizó a partir del análisis de contenido asistido por la herramienta Atlas ti 9. Los principales resultados apuntan a una percepción social de la enfermedad como hecho negativo, desde el referente de la definición y las consecuencias de la enfermedad y los malestares psicológicos vividos. Emerge una evaluación positiva de hechos como el disfrute de la convivencia familiar, la restructuración del uso del tiempo libre, recuperar la normalidad y superar la enfermedad. Entre las peores experiencias revelan padecer la enfermedad ellos mismos o sus familiares, las afectaciones al uso cotidiano del tiempo libre, el fallecimiento de familiares o personas significativas, la afectación a la práctica del deporte, el estudio y los malestares psicológicos. The research aims to unveil the social perceptions of Covid-19 held by the children and adolescents athletes of the School of Sports Initiation of the province of Cienfuegos who suffered from the disease. The research followed an interpretative constructive qualitative approach. To collect the information, the qualitative questionnaire social perception of Covid-19 was applied, accessing 75 athletes from the School of Sports Initiation of Cienfuegos who suffered from Covid-19 during the year 2021. The interpretation of the results was carried out from the content analysis assisted by the Atlas ti 9 tool. The main results point to a social perception of the disease as an extreme negative fact, from the referent of the definition and the consequences of the disease and the psychological discomforts experienced. A positive evaluation emerges of facts such as the enjoyment of family life, the restructuring of the use of free time, recovering normality and overcoming the disease. Among the worst experiences, they reveal suffering the disease themselves or their relatives, the affectations to the daily use of free time, the death of relatives or significant persons, the affectation to the practice of sports, the study and the psychological discomfort

Persons with first episode psychosis have distinct profiles of social cognition and metacognition

Altres ajuts: Obra Social La Caixa (RecerCaixa call 2013), by the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI, Spain). Junta de Andalucía: PI-0634/2011; PI-0193/2014.Subjects with first-episode psychosis experience substantial deficits in social cognition and metacognition. Although previous studies have investigated the role of profiles of individuals in social cognition and metacognition in chronic schizophrenia, profiling subjects with first-episode psychosis in both domains remains to be investigated. We used latent profile analysis to derive profiles of the abilities in 174 persons with first-episode psychosis using the Beck's Cognitive Insight Scale, the Faces Test, the Hinting Task, the Internal, Personal and Situational Attributions Questionnaire, and the Beads Task. Participants received a clinical assessment and a neuropsychological assessment. The best-fitting model was selected according to the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). We assessed the importance of the variables via a classification tree (CART). We derived three clusters with distinct profiles. The first profile (33.3%) comprised individuals with low social cognition. The second profile (60.9%) comprised individuals that had more proneness to present jumping to conclusions. The third profile (5.7%) presented a heterogeneous profile of metacognitive deficits. Persons with lower social cognition presented worse clinical and neuropsychological features than cluster 2 and cluster 3. Cluster 3 presented significantly worst functioning. Our results suggest that individuals with FEP present distinct profiles that concur with specific clinical, neuropsychological, and functional challenges. Each subgroup may benefit from different interventions