More appropriate disease control policies for the developing world : policy and trade issues

Investment in disease control should be targeted to critical points that provide the greatest benefit to the livelihoods of livestock-dependent stakeholders. Risk-based targeting should balance the impacts of diseases against the feasibility of their control. This requires sensitive and specific surveillance systems that provide representative overviews of the animal health situation for accurate assessment of disease impact and transmission patterns. Assessment of impact should include household and market effects. The key in surveillance is involving livestock owners using active methods that ensure their disease priorities are addressed. Epidemiological targeting of interventions to critical points in disease transmission cycles should be done to obtain maximal disease reduction. Interventions should be delivered in full partnership with both private and community-based stakeholders to assure high uptake and sustainability. In developing countries, approaches such as participatory disease surveillance and community-based animal health programs have been effective and comply with international animal health standards

A model of lineage 1 and lineage 2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa

The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1–2 years and 5 years, respectively)

A model of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia transmission dynamics in East Africa

The dynamics of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) transmission vary widely between livestock production systems. This paper describes the development of a homogeneous, stochastic, compartmental model for CBPP transmission in pastoral herds of East Africa. The model was built using parameter estimates based on data published in the literature and on observations of livestock owners obtained through participatory research. The basic reproduction number for CBPP in southern Sudan was estimated to range from 3.2 to 4.6. The homogeneous model indicates that the critical community size for the persistence of CBPP falls within the typical herd sizes for pastoral communities in East Africa suggesting that individual isolated herds are capable of maintaining infection indefinitely. Vaccination alone with currently available vaccines was unlikely to eradicate the disease

A heterogeneous population model for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia transmission and control in pastoral communities of East Africa

Pastoral cattle live in highly structured communities characterized by complex contact patterns. The present paper describes a spatially heterogeneous model for the transmission of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) developed specifically for pastoral communities of East Africa. The model is validated against serological data on the prevalence of CBPP infection in several communities of southern Sudan and against livestock owner information on community structure, livestock contact and cattle exchange. The model is used to assess the impact of alternative control strategies including mass and elective vaccination programmes, potential treatment regimes and the combination of vaccination and treatment in a single unified strategy. The results indicate that the eradication of CBPP using mass vaccination with currently available vaccines is unlikely to succeed. On the other hand, elective control programmes based on herd level vaccination, treatment of clinical cases or a combination of both vaccination and treatment enabled individual livestock owners to capture a large benefit in terms of reduced animal-level prevalence and mortality experience. The most promising intervention scenario was a programme which combined the vaccination of healthy animals with treatment of clinical cases