ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios

Scenarios serve science by testing the sensitivity of a system and/or society to adapt to the future. In this study, we present a new land use scenario methodology called ScenaLand. This methodology aims to develop plausible and contrasting land use and management (LUM) scenarios, useful to explore how LUM (e.g. soil and water conservation techniques) may afect ecosystem services under global change in a wide range of environments. ScenaLand is a method for constructing narrative and spatially explicit land use scenarios that are useful for end-users and impact modellers. This method is innovative because it merges literature and expert knowledge, and its low data requirement makes it easy to be implemented in the context of inter-site comparison, including global change projections. ScenaLand was developed and tested on six diferent Mediterranean agroecological and socioeconomic contexts during the MASCC research project (Mediterranean agricultural soil conservation under global change). The method frst highlights the socioeconomic trends of each study site including emerging trends such as new government laws, LUM techniques through a qualitative survey addressed to local experts. Then, the method includes a ranking of driving factors, a matrix about land use evolution, and soil and water conservation techniques. ScenaLand also includes a framework to develop narratives along with two priority axes (contextualized to environmental protection vs. land productivity in this study). In the context of this research project, four contrasting scenarios are proposed: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (market-oriented), S3 (environmental protection), and S4 (sustainable). Land use maps are then built with the creation of LUM allocation rules based on agroecological zoning. ScenaLand resulted in a robust and easy method to apply with the creation of 24 contrasted scenarios. These scenarios come not only with narratives but also with spatially explicit maps that are potentially used by impact modellers and other endusers. The last part of our study discusses the way the method can be implemented including a comparison between sites and the possibilities to implement ScenaLand in other contexts.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Soil and water salinization in mediterranean costal area : toward an integrated approach for salinity management - Case study of the Aude lowland

International audience<p>Soil and water salinization is a major threat to agricultural land and biodiversity in natural areas. Coastal areas are highly sensitive to salinization leading to a deterioration of resources (water, soil and biodiversity) and ecosystem services. The Aude lowland is longstanding facing this issue. The main solution is to bring massive amounts of fresh water to the surface of the fields, in the form of anthropic flooding, associated with drainage for the leaching of salts. Understanding system equilibrium is crucial in the context of global change, less fresh water available, sea level rise, strong and fast landuse evolution.</p><p>To achieve this objective, we propose an integrated approach providing links between high resolution water and soil salinity at lowland scale, <em>lato sensu</em> water management practices and winegrowers perception of the actual state and evolution salinity.</p><p>Salinity measurement survey consist in three dimensional sampling with more than 1500 samples on the whole study area. Results exhibit high level of salinity, increasing with depth and heterogeneity at short distance and spatially structured at long distance. Closed questions carried out on 27 winegrowers bring an in-depth knowledge on all winegrowing practices related to water management (tillage, weed control practices, irrigation, drainage). Statistical analysis (MCA, HAC) show five groups of practices associated to different salt control strategies. Perception was investigated using open questions and answers were structured in a matrix including six themes (in column) and 27 winegrowers (in row). Main results show three different types for salinity perception.</p><p>The cross analysis between perception, practices and measured salinity brings an integrated vision of the salinization and its management in the study area. This allows to better understand how viticulture can still partially persist despite high soil and water salinity levels. The reason is inside the strategies promoting the adaptation of the practices to salty pressure and soil functioning and not only based on unique practice.</p&gt

Impact of global changes on soil erosion in an Italian basin of mixed pastures (Sicily)

International audienceSoil is an essential natural resource, non-renewable on a human time scale, which is degraded mainly by water erosion, especially in the Mediterranean context. Erosion can cause significant soil losses at the plot and catchment level through the transfer of sediments which, in a framework of global changes (climate and land use), may severely increase in intensity.This study was part of the MASCC/Arimnet2 project, which aimed to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean agricultural soils to global changes and contribute to the definition of sustainable agricultural conservation strategies for Mediterranean agro-ecosystems. In the challenge of reconciling agricultural production, environmental protection and the effects of climate change, we believe that some trade-offs are possible.We assessed the impact of global change scenarios on soil loss in a mixed pasture watershed in the Cannata basin (Sicily) by 2050, testing strategies to maintain agricultural production and protect soil resources. With the LANDSOIL model, we simulated soil erosion on different climatic (RCP4.5) and land use scenarios derived from a combination of plausible socio-economic conditions. The land use scenarios have been designed according two principal axes: agricultural production and soil conservation. All scenarios tend towards an increase in crops (wheat and orchard) over different degrees represented by the productivity axis. We also adopted a main differentiation between intensive and extensive practices for pasture, and between conventional and conservative practices for wheat and orchard. The simulation results show that climate change can lead to a decrease in erosion. The evolution of erosion is also strongly influenced by land use. Environmental protection and sustainability scenarios limit soil erosion compared to the most productive scenarios which, on the contrary, may result in an increase. Reducing intensive grazing in favor of conservation wheat and arboriculture, increases the cultivated area and can decrease soil erosion by 2050 horizon. The use of a suitable land use scenarios can contribute to environmental protection, sustainability, and provide levers to meet food production requirements

Soil erosion control in a pasture‐dominated Mediterranean mountain environment under global change

Soil erosion control is critical to global food production and ecosystem health worldwide, and particularly in the Mediterranean region, which is prone to erosion and is expected to be strongly affected by climatic and anthropogenic changes. In this paper, we explore how land use and management (LUM) can mitigate climate change impacts and increase agricultural attractiveness in pasture-dominated Mediterranean mountain environments. One originality of the proposed research is to combine LUM scenarios incorporating environmental and socio-economic behaviour with distributed process-based modelling to simulate the impacts of global change. Specifically, soil erosion for different combinations of current and plausible future climate and LUM conditions were simulated on a small watershed located in eastern Sicily (Italy) using the LandSoil model. LUM scenarios were established as a modulation of environmental protection and agricultural production/diversification. The main management distinctions tested in this paper included intensive versus extensive practices for pasture, and conventional versus conservative practices for cereals and orchards. Simulations showed that the impact of climate change was very low and not significant in the studied watershed (i.e., −1.78% of erosion on average). Under current climate and compared to the baseline, LUM scenarios reported an increase in erosion for the business-as-usual (S1, +6.0%), market-oriented (S2, +57.2%) and sustainability-oriented (S4, +0.9) scenarios, respectively, whereas the nature-oriented scenario led to a slight reduction in erosion (S3, −11.3%). Our results also emphasised that agricultural diversification coupled with adaptations in practices and management can improve the attractiveness of agriculture in pasture-dominated environments while maintaining soil protection at an acceptable level.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Salinity Spatial Patterns in Mediterranean Coastal Landscape: The Legacy of the Historical Water Management and Land Planning

Mediterranean coastal areas have been occupied and developed intensively for a long time facing issues related to agricultural production, urbanization, tourism, preservation of natural resources often linked to salinity. This article explores the relationship between historical land planning and water management, and current soil and water salinity to gain insights into future projections.Soil samples (1185) were collected in a coastal plain of 114 km2 in the south of France and saturated paste extract Electrical Conductivity (ECsp) was deduced from 1:5 dilution. Soil salinity exhibits a wide range of variation (from 0.54 to 113.1 mS cm-1) and spatial patterns. ECsp is significantly different among soil types, higher at depth than at the surface (Kruskal Wallis and Wilcoxon tests) and influenced by the distance to ancient anthropogenic structures (Pettitt test). Surface water and shallow groundwater samples were collected for trace element concentrations and Oxygen (18O/16O) isotope ratio measurements. The geochemical signatures indicate a mixture between surface freshwater and seawater, with the presence of over-salted seawater and a stratification of salinity from the surface to the depth.Results suggest that groundwater is the source of soil salinity, and illustrate the long-term impact of water management and land planning. Less saline soils are found near the freshwater supply channel (constructed from 15th to 18th), while more saline soils are located near drainage channels. The presence of over-salted water reflects temporal evolution of the plain over the last few centuries (initially under seawater, gradually filled in, presence of ponds and salt works that have now disappeared). The current soil salinity patches continue to be a visible reminder of this evolution. The trend towards desalinization of the plain over the last few centuries has been made possible by massive freshwater inflows, which are now under threat due to the general decrease of water resources availability

Soil erosion control in a pasture‐dominated Mediterranean mountain environment under global change

International audienceSoil erosion control is critical to global food production and ecosystem health worldwide, and particularly in the Mediterranean region, which is prone to erosion and is expected to be strongly affected by climatic and anthropogenic changes. In this paper, we explore how land use and management (LUM) can mitigate climate change impacts and increase agricultural attractiveness in pasture‐dominated Mediterranean mountain environments. One originality of the proposed research is to combine LUM scenarios incorporating environmental and socio‐economic behaviour with distributed process‐based modelling to simulate the impacts of global change. Specifically, soil erosion for different combinations of current and plausible future climate and LUM conditions were simulated on a small watershed located in eastern Sicily (Italy) using the LandSoil model. LUM scenarios were established as a modulation of environmental protection and agricultural production/diversification. The main management distinctions tested in this paper included intensive versus extensive practices for pasture, and conventional versus conservative practices for cereals and orchards. Simulations showed that the impact of climate change was very low and not significant in the studied watershed (i.e., −1.78% of erosion on average). Under current climate and compared to the baseline, LUM scenarios reported an increase in erosion for the business‐as‐usual (S1, +6.0%), market‐oriented (S2, +57.2%) and sustainability‐oriented (S4, +0.9) scenarios, respectively, whereas the nature‐oriented scenario led to a slight reduction in erosion (S3, −11.3%). Our results also emphasised that agricultural diversification coupled with adaptations in practices and management can improve the attractiveness of agriculture in pasture‐dominated environments while maintaining soil protection at an acceptable level

ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios

International audienceScenarios serve science by testing the sensitivity of a system and/or society to adapt to the future. In this study, we present a new land use scenario methodology called ScenaLand. This methodology aims to develop plausible and contrasting land use and management (LUM) scenarios, useful to explore how LUM (e.g. soil and water conservation techniques) may affect ecosystem services under global change in a wide range of environments. ScenaLand is a method for constructing narrative and spatially explicit land use scenarios that are useful for end-users and impact modellers. This method is innovative because it merges literature and expert knowledge, and its low data requirement makes it easy to be implemented in the context of inter-site comparison, including global change projections. ScenaLand was developed and tested on six different Mediterranean agroecological and socioeconomic contexts during the MASCC research project (Mediterranean agricultural soil conservation under global change). The method first highlights the socioeconomic trends of each study site including emerging trends such as new government laws, LUM techniques through a qualitative survey addressed to local experts. Then, the method includes a ranking of driving factors, a matrix about land use evolution, and soil and water conservation techniques. ScenaLand also includes a framework to develop narratives along with two priority axes (contextualized to environmental protection vs. land productivity in this study). In the context of this research project, four contrasting scenarios are proposed: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (market-oriented), S3 (environmental protection), and S4 (sustainable). Land use maps are then built with the creation of LUM allocation rules based on agroecological zoning. ScenaLand resulted in a robust and easy method to apply with the creation of 24 contrasted scenarios. These scenarios come not only with narratives but also with spatially explicit maps that are potentially used by impact modellers and other end-users. The last part of our study discusses the way the method can be implemented including a comparison between sites and the possibilities to implement ScenaLand in other contexts