Anxiety onset in adolescents : a machine-learning prediction

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Recent longitudinal studies in youth have reported MRI correlates of prospective anxiety symptoms during adolescence, a vulnerable period for the onset of anxiety disorders. However, their predictive value has not been established. Individual prediction through machine-learning algorithms might help bridge the gap to clinical relevance. A voting classifier with Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression algorithms was used to evaluate the predictive pertinence of gray matter volumes of interest and psychometric scores in the detection of prospective clinical anxiety. Participants with clinical anxiety at age 18–23 (N = 156) were investigated at age 14 along with healthy controls (N = 424). Shapley values were extracted for in-depth interpretation of feature importance. Prospective prediction of pooled anxiety disorders relied mostly on psychometric features and achieved moderate performance (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.68), while generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) prediction achieved similar performance. MRI regional volumes did not improve the prediction performance of prospective pooled anxiety disorders with respect to psychometric features alone, but they improved the prediction performance of GAD, with the caudate and pallidum volumes being among the most contributing features. To conclude, in non-anxious 14 year old adolescents, future clinical anxiety onset 4–8 years later could be individually predicted. Psychometric features such as neuroticism, hopelessness and emotional symptoms were the main contributors to pooled anxiety disorders prediction. Neuroanatomical data, such as caudate and pallidum volume, proved valuable for GAD and should be included in prospective clinical anxiety prediction in adolescents.Peer reviewe

The relationship between negative life events and cortical structural connectivity in adolescents

Adolescence is a crucial period for physical and psychological development. The impact of negative life events represents a risk factor for the onset of neuropsychiatric disorders. This study aims to investigate the relationship between negative life events and structural brain connectivity, considering both graph theory and connectivity strength. A group (n = 487) of adolescents from the IMAGEN Consortium was divided into Low and High Stress groups. Brain networks were extracted at an individual level, based on morphological similarity between grey matter regions with regions defined using an atlas-based region of interest (ROI) approach. Between-group comparisons were performed with global and local graph theory measures in a range of sparsity levels. The analysis was also performed in a larger sample of adolescents (n = 976) to examine linear correlations between stress level and network measures. Connectivity strength differences were investigated with network-based statistics. Negative life events were not found to be a factor influencing global network measures at any sparsity level. At local network level, between-group differences were found in centrality measures of the left somato-motor network (a decrease of betweenness centrality was seen at sparsity 5%), of the bilateral central visual and the left dorsal attention network (increase of degree at sparsity 10% at sparsity 30% respectively). Network-based statistics analysis showed an increase in connectivity strength in the High stress group in edges connecting the dorsal attention, limbic and salience networks. This study suggests negative life events alone do not alter structural connectivity globally, but they are associated to connectivity properties in areas involved in emotion and attention.</p

Blunted ventral striatal responses to anticipated rewards foreshadow problematic drug use in novelty-seeking adolescents.

Novelty-seeking tendencies in adolescents may promote innovation as well as problematic impulsive behaviour, including drug abuse. Previous research has not clarified whether neural hyper- or hypo-responsiveness to anticipated rewards promotes vulnerability in these individuals. Here we use a longitudinal design to track 144 novelty-seeking adolescents at age 14 and 16 to determine whether neural activity in response to anticipated rewards predicts problematic drug use. We find that diminished BOLD activity in mesolimbic (ventral striatal and midbrain) and prefrontal cortical (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) regions during reward anticipation at age 14 predicts problematic drug use at age 16. Lower psychometric conscientiousness and steeper discounting of future rewards at age 14 also predicts problematic drug use at age 16, but the neural responses independently predict more variance than psychometric measures. Together, these findings suggest that diminished neural responses to anticipated rewards in novelty-seeking adolescents may increase vulnerability to future problematic drug use

Predicting change trajectories of neuroticism from baseline brain structure using whole brain analyses and latent growth curve models in adolescents

International audienceAbstract Adolescence is a vulnerable time for personality development. Especially neuroticism with its link to the development of psychopathology is of interest concerning influential factors. The present study exploratorily investigates neuroanatomical signatures for developmental trajectories of neuroticism based on a voxel-wise whole-brain structural equation modelling framework. In 1,814 healthy adolescents of the IMAGEN sample, the NEO-FFI was acquired at three measurement occasions across five years. Based on a partial measurement invariance second-order latent growth curve model we conducted whole-brain analyses on structural MRI data at age 14 years, predicting change in neuroticism over time. We observed that a reduced volume in the pituitary gland was associated with the slope of neuroticism over time. However, no relations with prefrontal areas emerged. Both findings are discussed against the background of possible genetic and social influences that may account for this result

Drinking Motives, Personality Traits, Life Stressors - Identifying Pathways to Harmful Alcohol Use in Adolescence Using a Panel Network Approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Models of alcohol use risk suggest that drinking motives represent the most proximal risk factors on which more distal factors converge. However, little is known about how distinct risk factors influence each other and alcohol use on different temporal scales (within a given moment vs. over time). We aimed to estimate the dynamic associations of distal (personality and life stressors) and proximal (drinking motives) risk factors, and their relationship to alcohol use in adolescence and early adulthood using a novel graphical vector autoregressive (GVAR) panel network approach.DESIGN, SETTING, AND CASES: We estimated panel networks on data from the IMAGEN study, a longitudinal European cohort study following adolescents across three waves (ages 16, 19, 22). Our sample consisted of 1829 adolescents (51% females) who reported alcohol use on at least one assessment wave.MEASUREMENTS: Risk factors included personality traits (NEO-FFI: neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness; SURPS: impulsivity and sensation seeking), stressful life events (LEQ: sum scores of stressful life events), and drinking motives (DMQ: social, enhancement, conformity, coping anxiety, coping depression). We assessed alcohol use (AUDIT: quantity and frequency) and alcohol-related problems (AUDIT: related problems).FINDINGS: Within a given moment, social (partial correlation (pcor) =0.17) and enhancement motives (pcor=0.15) co-occurred most strongly with drinking quantity and frequency, while coping depression motives (pcor=0.13), openness (pcor=0.05), and impulsivity (pcor=0.09) were related to alcohol-related problems. The temporal network showed no predictive associations between distal risk factors and drinking motives. Social motives (beta=0.21), previous alcohol use (beta=0.11), and openness (beta=0.10) predicted alcohol-related problems over time (all p&lt;0.01).CONCLUSIONS: Heavy and frequent alcohol use, along with social drinking motives, appear to be key targets for preventing the development of alcohol-related problems throughout late adolescence. We found no evidence for personality traits and life stressors predisposing towards distinct drinking motives over time.</p

Peer victimization and its impact on adolescent brain development and psychopathology

Chronic peer victimization has long-term impacts on mental health; however, the biological mediators of this adverse relationship are unknown. We sought to determine whether adolescent brain development is involved in mediating the effect of peer victimization on psychopathology. We included participants (n = 682) from the longitudinal IMAGEN study with both peer victimization and neuroimaging data. Latent profile analysis identified groups of adolescents with different experiential patterns of victimization. We then associated the victimization trajectories and brain volume changes with depression, generalized anxiety, and hyperactivity symptoms at age 19. Repeated measures ANOVA revealed time-by victimization interactions on left putamen volume (F = 4.38, p = 0.037). Changes in left putamen volume were negatively associated with generalized anxiety (t = −2.32, p = 0.020). Notably, peer victimization was indirectly associated with generalized anxiety via decreases in putamen volume (95% CI = 0.004–0.109). This was also true for the left caudate (95% CI = 0.002–0.099). These data suggest that the experience of chronic peer victimization during adolescence might induce psychopathology-relevant deviations from normative brain development. Early peer victimization interventions could prevent such pathological changes

Neural network involving medial orbitofrontal cortex and dorsal periaqueductal gray regulation in human alcohol abuse.

Prompted by recent evidence of neural circuitry in rodent models, functional magnetic resonance imaging and functional connectivity analyses were conducted for a large adolescent population at two ages, together with alcohol abuse measures, to characterize a neural network that may underlie the onset of alcoholism. A network centered on the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC), as well as including the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG), central nucleus of the amygdala, and nucleus accumbens, was identified, consistent with the rodent models, with evidence of both inhibitory and excitatory coregulation by the mOFC over the dPAG. Furthermore, significant relationships were detected between raised baseline excitatory coregulation in this network and impulsivity measures, supporting a role for negative urgency in alcohol dependence

Global and Regional Structural Differences and Prediction of Autistic Traits during Adolescence

Background Autistic traits are commonly viewed as dimensional in nature, and as continuously distributed in the general population. In this respect, the identification of predictive values of markers such as subtle autism-related alterations in brain morphology for parameter values of autistic traits could increase our understanding of this dimensional occasion. However, currently, very little is known about how these traits correspond to alterations in brain morphology in typically developing individuals, particularly during a time period where changes due to brain development processes do not provide a bias. Therefore, in the present study, we analyzed brain volume, cortical thickness (CT) and surface area (SA) in a cohort of 14-15-year-old adolescents (N = 285, female: N = 162) and tested their predictive value for autistic traits, assessed with the social responsiveness scale (SRS) two years later at the age of 16-17 years, using a regression-based approach. We found that autistic traits were significantly predicted by volumetric changes in the amygdala (r = 0.181), cerebellum (r = 0.128) and hippocampus (r = -0.181, r = -0.203), both in boys and girls. Moreover, the CT of the superior frontal region was negatively correlated (r = -0.144) with SRS scores. Furthermore, we observed a significant association between the SRS total score and smaller left putamen volume, specifically in boys (r = -0.217), but not in girls. Our findings suggest that neural correlates of autistic traits also seem to lie on a continuum in the general population, are determined by limbic-striatal neuroanatomical brain areas, and are partly dependent on sex. As we imaged adolescents from a large population-based cohort within a small age range, these data may help to increase the understanding of autistic-like occasions in otherwise typically developing individuals

Drinking motives, personality traits and life stressors-identifying pathways to harmful alcohol use in adolescence using a panel network approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Models of alcohol use risk suggest that drinking motives represent the most proximal risk factors on which more distal factors converge. However, little is known about how distinct risk factors influence each other and alcohol use on different temporal scales (within a given moment versus over time). We aimed to estimate the dynamic associations of distal (personality and life stressors) and proximal (drinking motives) risk factors, and their relationship to alcohol use in adolescence and early adulthood using a novel graphical vector autoregressive (GVAR) panel network approach.DESIGN, SETTING AND CASES: We estimated panel networks on data from the IMAGEN study, a longitudinal European cohort study following adolescents across three waves (aged 16, 19 and 22 years). Our sample consisted of 1829 adolescents (51% females) who reported alcohol use on at least one assessment wave.MEASUREMENTS: Risk factors included personality traits (NEO-FFI: neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness and conscientiousness; SURPS: impulsivity and sensation-seeking), stressful life events (LEQ: sum scores of stressful life events), and drinking motives [drinking motives questionnaire (DMQ): social, enhancement, conformity, coping anxiety and coping depression]. We assessed alcohol use [alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT): quantity and frequency] and alcohol-related problems (AUDIT: related problems).FINDINGS: Within a given moment, social [partial correlation (pcor) = 0.17] and enhancement motives (pcor = 0.15) co-occurred most strongly with drinking quantity and frequency, while coping depression motives (pcor = 0.13), openness (pcor = 0.05) and impulsivity (pcor = 0.09) were related to alcohol-related problems. The temporal network showed no predictive associations between distal risk factors and drinking motives. Social motives (beta = 0.21), previous alcohol use (beta = 0.11) and openness (beta = 0.10) predicted alcohol-related problems over time (all P  &lt; 0.01).CONCLUSIONS: Heavy and frequent alcohol use, along with social drinking motives, appear to be key targets for preventing the development of alcohol-related problems throughout late adolescence. We found no evidence for personality traits and life stressors predisposingtowards distinct drinking motives over time.</div

Personality, attentional biases towards emotional faces and symptoms of mental disorders in an adolescent sample

Objective To investigate the role of personality factors and attentional biases towards emotional faces, in establishing concurrent and prospective risk for mental disorder diagnosis in adolescence. Method Data were obtained as part of the IMAGEN study, conducted across 8 European sites, with a community sample of 2257 adolescents. At 14 years, participants completed an emotional variant of the dot-probe task, as well two personality measures, namely the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale and the revised NEO Personality Inventory. At 14 and 16 years, participants and their parents were interviewed to determine symptoms of mental disorders. Results Personality traits were general and specific risk indicators for mental disorders at 14 years. Increased specificity was obtained when investigating the likelihood of mental disorders over a 2-year period, with the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale showing incremental validity over the NEO Personality Inventory. Attentional biases to emotional faces did not characterise or predict mental disorders examined in the current sample. Discussion Personality traits can indicate concurrent and prospective risk for mental disorders in a community youth sample, and identify at-risk youth beyond the impact of baseline symptoms. This study does not support the hypothesis that attentional biases mediate the relationship between personality and psychopathology in a community sample. Task and sample characteristics that contribute to differing results among studies are discussed