Poisson mixed models for predicting number of fires

© 2019. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/. This version of the article: M. Boubeta, M. J. Lombardía, M. Marey-Pérez, y D. Morales, «Poisson mixed models for predicting number of fires», Int. J. Wildland Fire, vol. 28, n.º 3, pp. 237-253, mar. 2019, doi: 10.1071/WF17037, has been accepted for publication in International Journal of Wildland Fire. The Version of Record is available online at https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17037[Abstract]: Wildfires are considered one of the main causes of forest destruction. In recent years, the number of forest fires and burned area in Mediterranean regions have increased. This problem particularly affects Galicia (north-west of Spain). Conventional modelling of the number of forest fires in small areas may have a high error. For this reason, four area-level Poisson mixed models with time effects are proposed. The first two models contain independent time effects, whereas the random effects of the other models are distributed according to an autoregressive process AR(1). A parametric bootstrap algorithm is given to measure the accuracy of the plug-in predictor of fire number under the temporal models. A significant prediction improvement is observed when using Poisson regression models with random time effects. Analysis of historical data finds significant meteorological and socioeconomic variables explaining the number of forest fires by area and reveals the presence of a temporal correlation structure captured by the area-level Poisson mixed model with AR(1) time effects

Does higher owner participation increase conflicts over common land? An analysis of communal forests in Galicia (Spain)

Communal forests or Montes Vecinales en Mano Común (MVMC) are a type of private collective land in Galicia (northwest Spain) representing approximately one-third of its forest land. There has been a series of changes in MVMC ownership and management throughout the 20th century. Uncertainty about ownership, changes in population and the presence of the Forestry Administration has caused deficiencies in management and increased conflict. This paper analysed MVMC management in 1731 parishes in Galicia. The digital records of local and regional newspapers were used to compile a database of 2734 news reports related to MVMC issues. The results of hypothesis testing and spatial analysis showed that population, agricultural activity and land use affected management and conflict rates. This paper discusses how active management and conflict are complementary models, and how the presence or absence of one or the other is a determining factor in the situation of each parish. It concludes that it is necessary to implement management models and strategies to minimize conflict and increase active management for sustainable forest development in the region.We are grateful to the Galician Government, Xunta de Galicia, Dirección Xeral de Investigación, Desenvolvemento e Innovación, Xunta de Galicia, for funding the project “A decision support system for montes veciñais en man común (DSSMVMC)” (07MRU035291PR)S

Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models

[Abstract] The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación; MTM2013-41383-PXunta de Galicia; CN2012/130Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino; PSE-310000-2009-4COST European Cooperation in Science and Technology; OC-2008-1-2124Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación; MTM2012-37077-C02-01Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación; MTM2011-22392Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación; MTM2008-03010Xunta de Galicia; 07MRU035291P

Criteria for assessing dairy farm types

In Galicia and in the rest of Spain, dairy barns are going through a transition to implement the latest technologies, improve labour efficiency, and increase size. Barns with capacity for more cows are required due to the new market demands. Such barns must be perfectly defined, so that the construction of new buildings may entail reduced investment and operating costs. A wrong decision in the design phase can lead to serious financial trouble, even to the extent of making the farm economically non-viable. This study focuses in determining the factors that most strongly affect the construction costs of dairy housing, based on the most common barn designs in Galicia. Such factors are determined by implementing different indices that analyse the shape of the building. The implemented indices concern the design of the building –mainly its shape– and consider in all cases the relation of the design to the total cost and cost per item of the different constructions. Among these indices, the ‘ratio of area to perimeter squared’ or shape index (dimensionless), and elongation (ratio between the length and the width of the building), enable the determination of the shapes that are more convenient from the economic perspective. The cost of the building envelope per square meter varies as the barn area increases. The relation between the variation in the cost of the building envelope and both indices is studied for the different design options considered. With the data obtained, some guidelines are suggested in order to help project designers find the most appropriate result for their design work

Public participation in forest planning: an opportunity or need for application in Galicia

Texto dispoñible en galego e españolA participación social na toma de decisións vinculadas á planificación e á ordenación do territorio constitúe un paso fundamental para acadar solucións viables e duradeiras. Neste sentido, a participación pública convértese nunha clara necesidade da sociedade moderna para tomar determinacións e construír consenso social na xestión dos recursos naturais, en particular, e na gobernanza do territorio, en xeral. Dentro do subsector forestal estanse dando os primeiros pasos para que a participación pública sexa incluída nos distintos procesos da ordenación e da xestión dos montes. Porén, e despois de revisar a literatura científica sobre esta cuestión, este estudo pon de manifesto que a participación pública é un dos piares básicos da planificación forestal, principalmente no nivel estratéxico, podendo representar unha das oportunidades para a súa aplicación en GaliciaLa participación social en la toma de decisiones vinculadas a la planificación y ordenación del territorio constituye un paso fundamental para alcanzar soluciones viables y duraderas. En este sentido, la participación pública se convierte en una clara necesidad de la sociedad moderna para tomar determinaciones y construir consenso social en la gestión de los recursos naturales, en particular, y en la gobernanza del territorio, en general. Dentro del subsector forestal se están dando los primeros pasos para que la participación pública sea incluida en los distintos procesos da ordenación y gestión de los montes. Sin embargo, y después de revisar la literatura científica sobre esta cuestión, este estudio pone de manifiesto que la participación pública es uno de los pilares básicos de la planificación forestal, principalmente a nivel estratégico, pudiendo representar una de las oportunidades para su aplicación en GaliciaThe social participation in decision-making processes inland planning and management is a key step in order to achieve viable and lasting solutions. In this sense, public participation is becoming a clear need for modern society with the aim of taking determinations and building social agreement on management of natural resources in particular, and on governance of the territory in general. Within the forestry subsector, first steps are taking in order to include public participation in several processes related to forest planning and management. Therefore, after reviewing the scientific literature on this matter, the present study shows that public participation is one of the fundamental pillars of forest planning, particularly at the strategic level, and may represent one of the opportunities for application in GaliciaS

Burned area prediction with semiparametric models

[Abstract] Wildfires are one of the main causes of forest destruction, especially in Galicia (north-west Spain), where the area burned by forest fires in spring and summer is quite high. This work uses two semiparametric time-series models to describe and predict the weekly burned area in a year: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modelling after smoothing, and smoothing after ARMA modelling. These models can be described as a sum of a parametric component modelled by an autoregressive moving average process and a non-parametric one. To estimate the non-parametric component, local linear and kernel regression, B-splines and P-splines were considered. The methodology and software were applied to a real dataset of burned area in Galicia for the period 1999–2008. The burned area in Galicia increases strongly during summer periods. Forest managers are interested in predicting the burned area to manage resources more efficiently. The two semiparametric models are analysed and compared with a purely parametric model. In terms of error, the most successful results are provided by the first semiparametric time-series model.Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino; PSE-310000-2009-4Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; MTM2014-52876-RMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad; MTM2011-22392Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; MTM2013-41383-PXunta de Galicia; CN2012/130Xunta de Galicia; 07MRU035291PRCOST Action/UE COST-OC-2008-1-2124

European Support Systems to Private Forest Ownership and their Application in Galicia

Texto dispoñible en galego e españolO sector forestal galego experimentou nas últimas décadas unha forte expansión en superficie sobre terras antigamente dedicadas á agricultura e á gandería, incremento superficial que non foi acompañado por unha repercusión económica e social similar. As razóns atópanse nas carencias estruturais que o propio sector presenta e que non foron corrixidas pola política forestal desenvolvida ata o momento na Comunidade. Tendo en conta a representatividade da propiedade privada de uso forestal en Galicia, este traballo examina as actuais condicións, necesidades e criterios de xestión forestal para este tipo de propiedade na Comunidade. Para iso, e en relación co concepto de xestión forestal sostible, revísanse diferentes metodoloxías de planificación e seguimento forestal implementadas noutras rexións europeas atendendo á súa potencialidade como alternativas de avance e de desenvolvemento do sector forestal galego. Así, dados os problemas actuais da actividade forestal, seleccionáronse catro puntos clave de estudo para a súa posible adaptación a Galicia: redes de contabilidade, modelos de cooperación, programas de educación e asesoramento e medidas públicas de apoio económico. Estas liñas son analizadas en tres niveis: descrición das actuais experiencias na materia en Galicia, base para a posible aplicación ou adaptación de modelos europeos; análise posterior dos principais programas ou medidas desenvolvidos en diferentes rexións europeas e, por último, xeración de criterios para a súa adaptación á ComunidadeEl sector forestal gallego ha experimentado en las últimas décadas una fuerte expansión en superficie sobre tierras antiguamente dedicadas a la agricultura y la ganadería, incremento superficial que no ha sido acompañado por una repercusión económica y social similar. Las razones se encuentran en las carencias estructurales que el propio sector presenta y que no han sido corregidas por la política forestal desarrollada hasta el momento en la Comunidad. Teniendo en cuenta la representatividad de la propiedad privada de uso forestal en Galicia, este trabajo examina las actuales condiciones, necesidades y criterios de gestión forestal para este tipo de propiedad en la Comunidad. Para ello, y en relación con el concepto de gestión forestal sostenible, se revisan diferentes metodologías de planificación y seguimiento forestal implementadas en otras regiones europeas atendiendo a su potencialidad como alternativas de avance y desarrollo del sector forestal gallego. Así, dados los problemas actuales de la actividad forestal, se han seleccionado cuatro puntos clave de estudio para su posible adaptación a Galicia: redes de contabilidad, modelos de cooperación, programas de educación y asesoramiento y medidas públicas de apoyo económico. Estas líneas son analizadas en tres niveles: descripción de las actuales experiencias en la materia en Galicia, base para la posible aplicación o adaptación de modelos europeos; análisis posterior de los principales programas o medidas desarrollados en diferentes regiones europeas y, por último, generación de criterios para su adaptación a la ComunidadThe Galician forestry sector has strongly expanded during the last few decades over lands formerly devoted to agrarian and livestock activities, increment in land which has not been accompanied by a similar socioeconomic repercussion. The reasons are the structural deficiencies of the forestry sector, which have not been corrected by the forest policy developed up to now in the region. The present survey analyses the current conditions, needs of, and criteria for private forest management in Galicia, given the important representation of this type of land regime tenure in the region. In order to achieve this, dealing with the concept of sustainable forest management, different potential methodologies for forest planning and monitoring implemented in other European regions are reviewed, taking their potentiality into account as alternatives to advance and development of the Galician forestry sector. Therefore, given the current forestry problems, four key issues have been selected for their possible adaptation to Galicia: accountancy data network, co-operation models, education and advice programmes and public measures of economic support. These guidelines are analysed at three levels: description of the current experiences on the subject in Galicia, the basis for the possible application and adaptation of European models; later analysis of the main programmes and measures carried out in different European regions and finally, a proposal of criteria for their adaptation to the communityS

Different Strategies for Resilience to Wildfires: The Experience of Collective Land Ownership in Galicia (Northwest Spain)

Resilience is not a particularly novel concept, but it has recently become frequently used as a measurement indicator of adaptation capacity under different approaches depending on the field of study. Ideally, for example, forest ecosystems would be resilient to wildfires, one of the most serious types of perturbation they are subjected to. In areas such as the northwest of Spain, a region with one of the most severe records of wildfire occurrence in western Europe, resilience indicators should be related with changes in land planning aimed to minimize the effects of forest fires. This article aimed to analyze the fire resilience strategies of a selected group of forest communities in northwest Spain. More specifically, the perceived risk of wildfires was compared with the actual record of fire events in these communities and the presence or absence of adaptive changes in management practices to reduce risk and improve recovery capacity. A mixed quantitative–qualitative approach was used to gather information about good practices, innovative solutions, and major obstacles for forest fire resilience in Galician common lands. The results suggest that while there is no single form of successful management, a key characteristic of resilient communities is the integration of fire as a management toolThis research was funded by the EU Interreg V-A España-Portugal (POCTEP) program 2014–2020, project 0577-FORVALUE (https://forvalue.eu/ (accessed on 21 April 2021))S

Integración de los programas de CAD en los Sistemas de Información Geográfica

La amplia difusión de los programas de Diseño Asistido por Ordenador (Computer-Aided Design: CAD), ha contribuido a la utilización de los mismos para muy diversos fines, entre los que cabe destacar la generación de cartografía a grandes escalas. Sin embargo los programas de CAD caracen de capacidad de análisis de información contenida en los mapas temáticos. Los Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) utilizan la tecnología informática para analizar y gestionar información espacial. Por tanto la integración o utilización conjunta de ambos sistemas contribuye a conseguir mejores resultados de cartografía digital ya que, por un lado se agiliza la fase de digitalización de los mapas utilizando los programas de CAD de amplia difusión, y por otro lado se incorpora la capacidad de analizar la información georreferenciada. En esta comunicación se expona una metodología que integra los sistemas CAD y SIG para la obtención de cartografía temática. Concretamente se menciona un ejemplo aplicado a estudios de concentración parcelari