Positive value of information in games.

We exhibit a general class of interactive decision situations in which all the agents benefit from more information. This class includes as a special case the classical comparison of statistical experiments a la Blackwell.Information structures, value of information, Pareto optima.

Bed-parallel slip : Identifying missing displacement in mass transport deposits

RW was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF grant No. 868/17). SM acknowledges the Israel Science Foundation (ISF grant No. 1645/19). TL acknowledges the Israeli government GSI DS project 40706.Peer reviewedPostprin

Impact of earthquakes on agriculture during the Roman–Byzantine period from pollen records of the Dead Sea laminated sediment

The Dead Sea region holds the archives of a complex relationship between an ever-changing nature and ancient civilisations. Regional pollen diagrams show a Roman–Byzantine period standing out in the recent millennia by its wetter climate that allowed intensive arboriculture. During that period, the Dead Sea formed laminites that display mostly a seasonal character. A multidisciplinary study focused on two earthquakes, 31 BC and AD 363, recorded as seismites in the Ze’elim gully A unit III which has been well dated by radiocarbon in a previous study. The sampling of the sediment was done at an annual resolution starting from a few years before and finishing a decade after each earthquake. A clear drop in agricultural indicators (especially Olea and cereals) is shown. These pollen indicators mostly reflect human activities in the Judean Hills and coastal oases. Agriculture was disturbed in large part of the rift valley where earthquake damage affected irrigation and access to the fields. It took 4 to 5 yr to resume agriculture to previous conditions. Earthquakes must be seen as contributors to factors damaging societies. If combined with other factors such as climatic aridification, disease epidemics and political upheaval, they may lead to civilisation collapse

Stratigraphic record reveals contrasting roles of overflows and underflows over glacial cycles in a hypersaline lake (Dead Sea)

In lakes and oceans, links between modern sediment density flow processes and deposits preserved in long-term geological records are poorly understood. Consequently, it is unclear whether, and if so how, long-term climate changes affect the magnitude/frequency of sediment density flows. One approach to answering this question is to analyze a comprehensive geological record that comprises deposits that can be reliably linked to modern sediment flow processes. To address this question, we investigated the unique ICDP Core 5017-1 from the Dead Sea (the largest and deepest hypersaline lake on the Earth) depocenter covering MIS 7-1. Based on an understanding of modern sediment density flow processes in the lake, we link homogeneous muds in the core to overflows (surface flood plumes, ρflowρwater). Our dataset reveals (1) overflows are more prominent during interglacials, while underflows are more prominent during glacials; (2) orbital-scale climate changes affected the flow magnitude/frequency via changing salinity and density profile of lake brine, lake-level, and source materials

Orbital- and Millennial-Scale Changes in Lake-Levels Facilitate Earthquake-Triggered Mass Failures in the Dead Sea Basin

Acknowledgments The authors appreciate the editor L. Flesch for handling our manuscript, Ed Pope and Sebastian Cardona for constructive reviews. This research was supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): M 2817 to Y. Lu and P30285-N34 to J. Moernaut, the University of Liege under Special Funds for Research, IPD-STEMA Program (R.DIVE.0899-J-F-G to Y. Lu), the Israel Science Foundation (#1645/19 to S. Marco and #1093/10 to R. Bookman), and the ICDP. A.A. is indebted to the Helmholtz Virtual Institute DESERVE for support. The authors thank C. Daxer for help modeling the Kernel Density and Nadav Wetzler for discussion.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A New Approach to Constrain the Seismic Origin for Prehistoric Turbidites as Applied to the Dead Sea Basin

Acknowledgments The authors appreciate the editor Lucy Flesch for handling our manuscript, Stefano Vitale and Alina Polonia for constructive reviews. This research was supported by the University of Liege under Special Funds for Research, IPD‐STEMA Program (R.DIVE.0899‐J‐F‐G to Y. Lu), Austrian Science Fund (FWF: M 2817 to Y. Lu), the DESERVE Virtual Institute of the Helmholtz Association (to A. Agnon), the Israel Science Foundation (#1093/10 to R.Bookman and #1645/19 to S.Marco), and the ICDP.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

FMRI resting slow fluctuations correlate with the activity of fast cortico-cortical physiological connections

Recording of slow spontaneous fluctuations at rest using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) allows distinct long-range cortical networks to be identified. The neuronal basis of connectivity as assessed by resting-state fMRI still needs to be fully clarified, considering that these signals are an indirect measure of neuronal activity, reflecting slow local variations in de-oxyhaemoglobin concentration. Here, we combined fMRI with multifocal transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), a technique that allows the investigation of the causal neurophysiological interactions occurring in specific cortico-cortical connections. We investigated whether the physiological properties of parieto-frontal circuits mapped with short-latency multifocal TMS at rest may have some relationship with the resting-state fMRI measures of specific resting-state functional networks (RSNs). Results showed that the activity of fast cortico-cortical physiological interactions occurring in the millisecond range correlated selectively with the coupling of fMRI slow oscillations within the same cortical areas that form part of the dorsal attention network, i.e., the attention system believed to be involved in reorientation of attention. We conclude that resting-state fMRI ongoing slow fluctuations likely reflect the interaction of underlying physiological cortico-cortical connections

Sharp changes in lake-levels preconditioning seismogenic mass failures in the Dead Sea

peer reviewedSubaqueous mass failures that comprise slides, slumps and debris flows are a major process that transport sediments from the continental shelf and upper slope to the deep basins (both oceans and lacustrine settings). They are often viewed together with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, and can have serious socioeconomic consequences. It is increasingly important to understand the relationship between mass failures and climate-driven factors such as changes in water-level. Despite extensive marine investigations on this topic world-wide, the relationship between changes in water-level and mass failures is still highly disputed. This is due largely to the significant uncertainties in age dating and different potential triggers and preconditioning factors of mass failure events from different geological settings. Here, we present a 70 kyr-long record of mass failure from the Dead Sea Basin center (ICDP Core 5017-1). This sedimentary sequence has been dated in high accuracy (±0.6 kyr) and has similar responses to climate forcing. Moreover, the mass failure record is interpreted to be controlled by a single trigger mechanism (i.e. seismicity).Based on the recent detailed study on the sedimentological signature of seismic shaking in the Dead Sea center, these seismogenic mass failures (seismites) account only for a part of the whole seismites catalog, suggesting that mass failure follows only part of seismic shaking irrespective of intensities of the shaking. This is evidenced by the common absence of mass failures following the in situ developed and preserved seismites (e.g., the in situ folded layer and intraclast breccias layer) which represent different intensities of seismic shaking. This feature implies that some non-seismic factor(s) must have preconditioned for the seismogenic mass failures in the Dead Sea center.Our observations reveal decoupling between change in sedimentation rates and occurrence probability of these seismogenic mass failures, thus suggesting that a change in sedimentation rate is not the preconditioning factor for the failure events. While 79% of seismogenic mass failure events occurred during lake-level rise/drop in contrast to 21% events occurred in the quiescent intervals between. Our dataset implies that seismogenic mass failures can occur at any lake-level state, but are more likely to occur during lake-level rise/drop due to the instability of the basin margins. In addition, the seismogenic mass failures occurred more frequently during glacials (characterized by highstand and high-amplitude lake-level changes) than during interglacials, as a result of the morphologic characteristics of the lake margin slopes and different lithologies (e.g. halite) influences which are both connected to the glacial-interglacial lake-level changes

The First Catalog of Archaeomagnetic Directions From Israel With 4,000 Years of Geomagnetic Secular Variations

The large and well-studied archaeological record of Israel offers a unique opportunity for collecting high resolution archaeomagnetic data from the past several millennia. Here, we initiate the first catalog of archaeomagnetic directions from Israel, with data covering the past four millennia. The catalog consists of 76 directions, of which 47 fulfill quality selection criteria with Fisher precision parameter (k) ≥ 60, 95% cone of confidence (α95) < 6° and number of specimens per site (n) ≥ 8. The new catalog complements our published paleointensity data from the Levant and enables testing the hypothesis of a regional geomagnetic anomaly in the Levant during the Iron Age proposed by Shaar et al. (2016, 2017). Most of the archaeomagnetic directions show < 15° angular deviations from an axial dipole field. However, we observe in the tenth and ninth century BCE short intervals with field directions that are 19°-22° different from an axial dipole field and inclinations that are 20°-22° steeper than an axial dipole field. The beginning of the first millennium BCE is also characterized with fast secular variation rates. The new catalog provides additional support to the Levantine Iron Age Anomaly hypothesis

Individual Patient Data Pooled Analysis of Randomized Trials of Bivalirudin versus Heparin in Acute Myocardial Infarction: Rationale and Methodology

Background: Individual randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of periprocedural anticoagulation with bivalirudin versus heparin during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have reported conflicting results. Study-level meta-analyses lack granularity to adjust for confounders, explore heterogeneity, or identify subgroups that may particularly benefit or be harmed. Objective: To overcome these limitations, we sought to develop an individual patient-data pooled database of RCTs comparing bivalirudin versus heparin. Methods: We conducted a systematic review to identify RCTs in which ≥1,000 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing PCI were randomized to bivalirudin versus heparin. Results: From 738 identified studies, 8 RCTs met the prespecified criteria. The principal investigators of each study agreed to provide patient-level data. The data were pooled and checked for accuracy against trial publications, with discrepancies addressed by consulting with the trialists. Consensus-based definitions were created to resolve differing antithrombotic, procedural, and outcome definitions. The project required 3.5 years to complete, and the final database includes 27,409 patients (13,346 randomized to bivalirudin and 14,063 randomized to heparin). Conclusion: We have created a large individual patient database of bivalirudin versus heparin RCTs in patients with AMI undergoing PCI. This endeavor may help identify the optimal periprocedural anticoagulation regimen for patient groups with different relative risks of adverse ischemic versus bleeding events, including those with ST-segment and non-ST-segment elevation MI, radial versus femoral access, use of a prolonged bivalirudin infusion or glycoprotein inhibitors, and others. Adherence to standardized techniques and rigorous validation processes should increase confidence in the accuracy and robustness of the results